BIG BOARD DYNASTY

Class 2026 · no season played yet · 2026-11-11

The 2026 dynasty rookie class: expectation vs reality

This class is still playing out. So far, fewer than 1 in 30 of its rookies have become a hit. Denzel Boston (WR) is the biggest riser.

Class 2026 means the players picked in the 2026 NFL draft. Hits and busts count their 2026-2028 seasons, and none has been played yet, so there are no hit or bust results for this class. "Two years later" means value in 2028, which is still to come, so that column fills in later.

So what: the 2026 rookies have not played an NFL season yet, so the only fair read is where the market priced them on rookie-draft day.

Superflex

Every 2026 rookie: value now vs his slot expectation (Superflex)
0.1x0.3x1x3x10x30x01.011.122.123.124.12Rookie-draft slot (12-team)Value now ÷ slot expectationJeremiyah Love (RB) · slot 1.01 · value now 6,605 vs 6,950 expected (Nov '26)Carnell Tate (WR) · slot 1.02 · value now 4,187 vs 3,308 expected (Nov '26)Fernando Mendoza (QB) · slot 1.03 · value now 3,099 vs 2,617 expected (Nov '26)Jordyn Tyson (WR) · slot 1.04 · value now 2,433 vs 2,656 expected (Nov '26)Makai Lemon (WR) · slot 1.05 · value now 2,059 vs 2,786 expected (Nov '26)Jadarian Price (RB) · slot 1.06 · value now 1,381 vs 1,656 expected (Nov '26)Kenyon Sadiq (TE) · slot 1.07 · value now 1,272 vs 1,438 expected (Nov '26)KC Concepcion (WR) · slot 1.08 · value now 2,214 vs 1,326 expected (Nov '26)Omar Cooper (WR) · slot 1.09 · value now 1,130 vs 843 expected (Nov '26)Ty Simpson (QB) · slot 1.10 · value now 694 vs 831 expected (Nov '26)Eli Stowers (TE) · slot 1.11 · value now 470 vs 822 expected (Nov '26)Denzel Boston (WR) · slot 1.12 · value now 2,069 vs 800 expected (Nov '26)Jonah Coleman (RB) · slot 2.01 · value now 911 vs 361 expected (Nov '26)Chris Bell (WR) · slot 2.02 · value now 494 vs 335 expected (Nov '26)Nicholas Singleton (RB) · slot 2.03 · value now 92 vs 292 expected (Nov '26)Antonio Williams (WR) · slot 2.04 · value now 748 vs 257 expected (Nov '26)Germie Bernard (WR) · slot 2.05 · value now 559 vs 177 expected (Nov '26)De'Zhaun Stribling (WR) · slot 2.06 · value now 536 vs 146 expected (Nov '26)Emmett Johnson (RB) · slot 2.07 · value now 283 vs 142 expected (Nov '26)Zachariah Branch (WR) · slot 2.08 · value now 66 vs 105 expected (Nov '26)Kaytron Allen (RB) · slot 2.09 · value now 48 vs 100 expected (Nov '26)Carson Beck (QB) · slot 2.10 · value now 174 vs 90 expected (Nov '26)Elijah Sarratt (WR) · slot 2.11 · value now 60 vs 90 expected (Nov '26)Malachi Fields (WR) · slot 2.12 · value now 170 vs 90 expected (Nov '26)Mike Washington (RB) · slot 3.01 · value now 237 vs 82 expected (Nov '26)Ted Hurst (WR) · slot 3.02 · value now 160 vs 82 expected (Nov '26)Chris Brazzell (WR) · slot 3.03 · value now 37 vs 77 expected (Nov '26)Max Klare (TE) · slot 3.04 · value now 125 vs 73 expected (Nov '26)Skyler Bell (WR) · slot 3.05 · value now 55 vs 72 expected (Nov '26)Ja'Kobi Lane (WR) · slot 3.06 · value now 256 vs 69 expected (Nov '26)Drew Allar (QB) · slot 3.07 · value now 30 vs 62 expected (Nov '26)Demond Claiborne (RB) · slot 3.08 · value now 33 vs 61 expected (Nov '26)Oscar Delp (TE) · slot 3.09 · value now 94 vs 49 expected (Nov '26)Eli Raridon (TE) · slot 3.10 · value now 204 vs 41 expected (Nov '26)Kaelon Black (RB) · slot 3.11 · value now 127 vs 41 expected (Nov '26)Cade Klubnik (QB) · slot 3.12 · value now 11 vs 34 expected (Nov '26)Adam Randall (RB) · slot 4.01 · value now 16 vs 31 expected (Nov '26)Justin Joly (TE) · slot 4.02 · value now 21 vs 25 expected (Nov '26)Garrett Nussmeier (QB) · slot 4.03 · value now 8 vs 24 expected (Nov '26)Brenen Thompson (WR) · slot 4.04 · value now 12 vs 19 expected (Nov '26)Kevin Coleman (WR) · slot 4.05 · value now 51 vs 17 expected (Nov '26)Bryce Lance (WR) · slot 4.06 · value now 48 vs 16 expected (Nov '26)Caleb Douglas (WR) · slot 4.07 · value now 403 vs 14 expected (Nov '26)Taylen Green (QB) · slot 4.08 · value now 7 vs 11 expected (Nov '26)Zavion Thomas (WR) · slot 4.09 · value now 10 vs 10 expected (Nov '26)Deion Burks (WR) · slot 4.10 · value now 7 vs 9 expected (Nov '26)Jack Endries (TE) · slot 4.11 · value now 8 vs 8 expected (Nov '26)Cyrus Allen (WR) · slot 4.12 · value now 55 vs 7 expected (Nov '26)Seth McGowan (RB) · slot 5.01 · value now 35 vs 7 expected (Nov '26)Tanner Koziol (TE) · slot 5.02 · value now 14 vs 6 expected (Nov '26)Will Kacmarek (TE) · slot 5.03 · value now 3 vs 6 expected (Nov '26)Matt Hibner (TE) · slot 5.04 · value now 73 vs 6 expected (Nov '26)Marlin Klein (TE) · slot 5.05 · value now 18 vs 5 expected (Nov '26)Jam Miller (RB) · slot 5.06 · value now 2 vs 5 expected (Nov '26)Cole Payton (QB) · slot 5.07 · value now 8 vs 4 expected (Nov '26)CJ Daniels (WR) · slot 5.08 · value now 8 vs 4 expected (Nov '26)Malik Benson (WR) · slot 5.09 · value now 16 vs 4 expected (Nov '26)Kaden Wetjen (WR) · slot 5.10 · value now 2 vs 4 expected (Nov '26)Lewis Bond (WR) · slot 5.11 · value now 0 vs 3 expected (Nov '26)Sam Roush (TE) · slot 5.12 · value now 16 vs 3 expected (Nov '26)Athan Kaliakmanis (QB) · slot 6.01 · value now 0 vs 3 expected (Nov '26)Carsen Ryan (TE) · slot 6.02 · value now 3 vs 3 expected (Nov '26)Seydou Traore (TE) · slot 6.03 · value now 3 vs 3 expected (Nov '26)Kendrick Law (WR) · slot 6.04 · value now 3 vs 3 expected (Nov '26)Nate Boerkircher (TE) · slot 6.05 · value now 8 vs 3 expected (Nov '26)Dallen Bentley (TE) · slot 6.06 · value now 3 vs 3 expected (Nov '26)Riley Nowakowski (TE) · slot 6.07 · value now 3 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Jaren Kanak (TE) · slot 6.08 · value now 3 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Reggie Virgil (WR) · slot 6.09 · value now 3 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Bauer Sharp (TE) · slot 6.10 · value now 0 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Barion Brown (WR) · slot 6.11 · value now 11 vs 1 expected (Nov '26)Behren Morton (QB) · slot 6.12 · value now 0 vs 1 expected (Nov '26)Joe Royer (TE) · slot 7.01 · value now 3 vs 1 expected (Nov '26)Josh Cuevas (TE) · slot 7.02 · value now 9 vs 1 expected (Nov '26)Josh Cameron (WR) · slot 7.03 · value now 22 vs 1 expected (Nov '26)Colbie Young (WR) · slot 7.04 · value now 10 vs 1 expected (Nov '26)DouglasCameronHibnerBrown

● hit◆ bust● otherDots on the floor: no longer valued (value 0).

So what: Denzel Boston (1.12) is now worth 2.6× his slot; KC Concepcion (1.08) is now worth 1.7× his slot; Carnell Tate (1.02) is now worth 1.3× his slot; 25 of 76 are worth less than their slot predicted, and 4 are no longer listed.

Biggest overperformers

PlayerRookie-draft slotNFL draft pickSlot expectationValue nowSurplusBest season
Denzel Boston WRRookie slot 1.12 · NFL round 2, pick 39 · expected 8001.12Round 2, #398002,069+1,269—
KC Concepcion WRRookie slot 1.08 · NFL round 1, pick 24 · expected 1,3261.08Round 1, #241,3262,214+888—
Carnell Tate WRRookie slot 1.02 · NFL round 1, pick 4 · expected 3,3081.02Round 1, #43,3084,187+879—
Jonah Coleman RBRookie slot 2.01 · NFL round 4, pick 108 · expected 3612.01Round 4, #108361911+550—
Antonio Williams WRRookie slot 2.04 · NFL round 3, pick 71 · expected 2572.04Round 3, #71257748+491—
Fernando Mendoza QBRookie slot 1.03 · NFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 2,6171.03Round 1, #12,6173,099+482—
De'Zhaun Stribling WRRookie slot 2.06 · NFL round 2, pick 33 · expected 1462.06Round 2, #33146536+390—
Caleb Douglas WRRookie slot 4.07 · NFL round 3, pick 75 · expected 144.07Round 3, #7514403+389—
Germie Bernard WRRookie slot 2.05 · NFL round 2, pick 47 · expected 1772.05Round 2, #47177559+382—
Omar Cooper WRRookie slot 1.09 · NFL round 1, pick 30 · expected 8431.09Round 1, #308431,130+287—

Steepest falls so far

PlayerRookie-draft slotNFL draft pickSlot expectationValue nowSurplusBest season
Chris Brazzell WRRookie slot 3.03 · NFL round 3, pick 83 · expected 773.03Round 3, #837737−40—
Brenen Thompson WRRookie slot 4.04 · NFL round 4, pick 105 · expected 194.04Round 4, #1051912−7—
Jam Miller RBRookie slot 5.06 · NFL round 7, pick 245 · expected 55.06Round 7, #24552−3—
Lewis Bond WRRookie slot 5.11 · NFL round 6, pick 204 · expected 35.11Round 6, #20430−3—
Athan Kaliakmanis QBRookie slot 6.01 · NFL round 7, pick 223 · expected 36.01Round 7, #22330−3—
Bauer Sharp TERookie slot 6.10 · NFL round 6, pick 185 · expected 26.10Round 6, #18520−2—
Behren Morton QBRookie slot 6.12 · NFL round 7, pick 234 · expected 16.12Round 7, #23410−1—

So what: About 1 in 10 of the 2026 rookies busted; the costliest by slot is Chris Brazzell at 3.03.

The whole class

Rookie-draft slotPlayerNFL draft pickAgeExpected+1y+2y+3yNowBest (PPR)Result
1.01Jeremiyah Love RBNFL round 1, pick 3 · expected 6,950 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #320.96,950———6,605—Open
1.02Carnell Tate WRNFL round 1, pick 4 · expected 3,308 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #421.33,308———4,187—Open
1.03Fernando Mendoza QBNFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 2,617 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #122.62,617———3,099—Open
1.04Jordyn Tyson WRNFL round 1, pick 8 · expected 2,656 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #821.72,656———2,433—Open
1.05Makai Lemon WRNFL round 1, pick 20 · expected 2,786 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #2021.92,786———2,059—Open
1.06Jadarian Price RBNFL round 1, pick 32 · expected 1,656 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #3222.51,656———1,381—Open
1.07Kenyon Sadiq TENFL round 1, pick 16 · expected 1,438 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #1621.11,438———1,272—Open
1.08KC Concepcion WRNFL round 1, pick 24 · expected 1,326 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #2421.61,326———2,214—Open
1.09Omar Cooper WRNFL round 1, pick 30 · expected 843 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #3022.4843———1,130—Open
1.10Ty Simpson QBNFL round 1, pick 13 · expected 831 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #1323.3831———694—Open
1.11Eli Stowers TENFL round 2, pick 54 · expected 822 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 2, #5423.0822———470—Open
1.12Denzel Boston WRNFL round 2, pick 39 · expected 800 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 2, #3922.4800———2,069—Open
2.01Jonah Coleman RBNFL round 4, pick 108 · expected 361 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #10822.7361———911—Open
2.02Chris Bell WRNFL round 3, pick 94 · expected 335 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #9421.9335———494—Open
2.03Nicholas Singleton RBNFL round 5, pick 165 · expected 292 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #16522.3292———92—Open
2.04Antonio Williams WRNFL round 3, pick 71 · expected 257 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #7121.8257———748—Open
2.05Germie Bernard WRNFL round 2, pick 47 · expected 177 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 2, #4722.4177———559—Open
2.06De'Zhaun Stribling WRNFL round 2, pick 33 · expected 146 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 2, #3323.4146———536—Open
2.07Emmett Johnson RBNFL round 5, pick 161 · expected 142 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #16122.5142———283—Open
2.08Zachariah Branch WRNFL round 3, pick 79 · expected 105 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #7922.1105———66—Open
2.09Kaytron Allen RBNFL round 6, pick 187 · expected 100 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #18723.3100———48—Open
2.10Carson Beck QBNFL round 3, pick 65 · expected 90 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #6523.490———174—Open
2.11Elijah Sarratt WRNFL round 4, pick 115 · expected 90 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #11522.990———60—Open
2.12Malachi Fields WRNFL round 3, pick 74 · expected 90 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #7422.790———170—Open
3.01Mike Washington RBNFL round 4, pick 122 · expected 82 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #12222.882———237—Open
3.02Ted Hurst WRNFL round 3, pick 84 · expected 82 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #8421.882———160—Open
3.03Chris Brazzell WRNFL round 3, pick 83 · expected 77 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #8322.677———37—Falling
3.04Max Klare TENFL round 2, pick 61 · expected 73 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 2, #6122.873———125—Open
3.05Skyler Bell WRNFL round 4, pick 125 · expected 72 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #12523.872———55—Open
3.06Ja'Kobi Lane WRNFL round 3, pick 80 · expected 69 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #8022.069———256—Open
3.07Drew Allar QBNFL round 3, pick 76 · expected 62 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #7622.162———30—Open
3.08Demond Claiborne RBNFL round 6, pick 198 · expected 61 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #19822.561———33—Open
3.09Oscar Delp TENFL round 3, pick 73 · expected 49 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #7322.749———94—Open
3.10Eli Raridon TENFL round 3, pick 95 · expected 41 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #9522.241———204—Open
3.11Kaelon Black RBNFL round 3, pick 90 · expected 41 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #9024.541———127—Open
3.12Cade Klubnik QBNFL round 4, pick 110 · expected 34 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #11022.534———11—Open
4.01Adam Randall RBNFL round 5, pick 174 · expected 31 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #17421.831———16—Open
4.02Justin Joly TENFL round 5, pick 152 · expected 25 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #15221.825———21—Open
4.03Garrett Nussmeier QBNFL round 7, pick 249 · expected 24 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #24924.224———8—Open
4.04Brenen Thompson WRNFL round 4, pick 105 · expected 19 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #10522.819———12—Falling
4.05Kevin Coleman WRNFL round 5, pick 177 · expected 17 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #17722.617———51—Open
4.06Bryce Lance WRNFL round 4, pick 136 · expected 16 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #13623.716———48—Open
4.07Caleb Douglas WRNFL round 3, pick 75 · expected 14 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #7522.614———403—Open
4.08Taylen Green QBNFL round 6, pick 182 · expected 11 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #18223.511———7—Open
4.09Zavion Thomas WRNFL round 3, pick 89 · expected 10 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #8922.210———10—Open
4.10Deion Burks WRNFL round 7, pick 254 · expected 9 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #25423.39———7—Open
4.11Jack Endries TENFL round 7, pick 221 · expected 8 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #22122.18———8—Open
4.12Cyrus Allen WRNFL round 5, pick 176 · expected 7 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #17623.27———55—Open
5.01Seth McGowan RBNFL round 7, pick 237 · expected 7 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #23724.57———35—Open
5.02Tanner Koziol TENFL round 5, pick 164 · expected 6 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #16422.26———14—Open
5.03Will Kacmarek TENFL round 3, pick 87 · expected 6 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #8723.26———3—Open
5.04Matt Hibner TENFL round 4, pick 133 · expected 6 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #13324.16———73—Open
5.05Marlin Klein TENFL round 2, pick 59 · expected 5 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 2, #5923.65———18—Open
5.06Jam Miller RBNFL round 7, pick 245 · expected 5 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #24522.05———2—Falling
5.07Cole Payton QBNFL round 5, pick 178 · expected 4 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #17823.54———8—Open
5.08CJ Daniels WRNFL round 6, pick 197 · expected 4 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #19724.34———8—Open
5.09Malik Benson WRNFL round 6, pick 195 · expected 4 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #19523.54———16—Open
5.10Kaden Wetjen WRNFL round 4, pick 121 · expected 4 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #12124.14———2—Open
5.11Lewis Bond WRNFL round 6, pick 204 · expected 3 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #20422.93———0—Falling
5.12Sam Roush TENFL round 3, pick 69 · expected 3 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #6922.63———16—Open
6.01Athan Kaliakmanis QBNFL round 7, pick 223 · expected 3 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #22322.73———0—Falling
6.02Carsen Ryan TENFL round 7, pick 248 · expected 3 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #24822.73———3—Open
6.03Seydou Traore TENFL round 5, pick 180 · expected 3 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #18023.73———3—Open
6.04Kendrick Law WRNFL round 5, pick 168 · expected 3 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #16822.93———3—Open
6.05Nate Boerkircher TENFL round 2, pick 56 · expected 3 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 2, #5624.63———8—Open
6.06Dallen Bentley TENFL round 7, pick 256 · expected 3 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #25625.33———3—Open
6.07Riley Nowakowski TENFL round 5, pick 169 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #16923.82———3—Open
6.08Jaren Kanak TENFL round 7, pick 225 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #22522.22———3—Open
6.09Reggie Virgil WRNFL round 5, pick 143 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #14321.92———3—Open
6.10Bauer Sharp TENFL round 6, pick 185 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #18523.02———0—Falling
6.11Barion Brown WRNFL round 6, pick 190 · expected 1 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #19022.41———11—Open
6.12Behren Morton QBNFL round 7, pick 234 · expected 1 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #23424.31———0—Falling
7.01Joe Royer TENFL round 5, pick 170 · expected 1 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #17024.21———3—Open
7.02Josh Cuevas TENFL round 5, pick 173 · expected 1 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #17322.61———9—Open
7.03Josh Cameron WRNFL round 6, pick 191 · expected 1 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #19123.11———22—Open
7.04Colbie Young WRNFL round 4, pick 140 · expected 1 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #14023.81———10—Open

1QB

Every 2026 rookie: value now vs his slot expectation (1QB)
0.1x0.3x1x3x10x30x01.011.122.123.124.12Rookie-draft slot (12-team)Value now ÷ slot expectationJeremiyah Love (RB) · slot 1.01 · value now 6,755 vs 7,442 expected (Nov '26)Carnell Tate (WR) · slot 1.02 · value now 4,530 vs 3,675 expected (Nov '26)Jordyn Tyson (WR) · slot 1.03 · value now 2,465 vs 2,890 expected (Nov '26)Jadarian Price (RB) · slot 1.04 · value now 1,540 vs 2,814 expected (Nov '26)Makai Lemon (WR) · slot 1.05 · value now 2,136 vs 1,701 expected (Nov '26)KC Concepcion (WR) · slot 1.06 · value now 2,380 vs 1,300 expected (Nov '26)Kenyon Sadiq (TE) · slot 1.07 · value now 1,295 vs 1,216 expected (Nov '26)Fernando Mendoza (QB) · slot 1.08 · value now 791 vs 873 expected (Nov '26)Omar Cooper (WR) · slot 1.09 · value now 1,143 vs 810 expected (Nov '26)Denzel Boston (WR) · slot 1.10 · value now 2,281 vs 734 expected (Nov '26)Eli Stowers (TE) · slot 1.11 · value now 492 vs 533 expected (Nov '26)Jonah Coleman (RB) · slot 1.12 · value now 919 vs 316 expected (Nov '26)Nicholas Singleton (RB) · slot 2.01 · value now 88 vs 298 expected (Nov '26)Emmett Johnson (RB) · slot 2.02 · value now 288 vs 271 expected (Nov '26)Chris Bell (WR) · slot 2.03 · value now 523 vs 220 expected (Nov '26)Antonio Williams (WR) · slot 2.04 · value now 775 vs 168 expected (Nov '26)Germie Bernard (WR) · slot 2.05 · value now 529 vs 146 expected (Nov '26)De'Zhaun Stribling (WR) · slot 2.06 · value now 559 vs 144 expected (Nov '26)Zachariah Branch (WR) · slot 2.07 · value now 50 vs 111 expected (Nov '26)Ty Simpson (QB) · slot 2.08 · value now 194 vs 102 expected (Nov '26)Mike Washington (RB) · slot 2.09 · value now 210 vs 89 expected (Nov '26)Kaytron Allen (RB) · slot 2.10 · value now 27 vs 79 expected (Nov '26)Elijah Sarratt (WR) · slot 2.11 · value now 50 vs 75 expected (Nov '26)Ja'Kobi Lane (WR) · slot 2.12 · value now 267 vs 74 expected (Nov '26)Ted Hurst (WR) · slot 3.01 · value now 127 vs 72 expected (Nov '26)Malachi Fields (WR) · slot 3.02 · value now 161 vs 71 expected (Nov '26)Chris Brazzell (WR) · slot 3.03 · value now 32 vs 65 expected (Nov '26)Max Klare (TE) · slot 3.04 · value now 126 vs 64 expected (Nov '26)Skyler Bell (WR) · slot 3.05 · value now 40 vs 62 expected (Nov '26)Demond Claiborne (RB) · slot 3.06 · value now 17 vs 52 expected (Nov '26)Kaelon Black (RB) · slot 3.07 · value now 127 vs 51 expected (Nov '26)Adam Randall (RB) · slot 3.08 · value now 8 vs 46 expected (Nov '26)Carson Beck (QB) · slot 3.09 · value now 27 vs 31 expected (Nov '26)Oscar Delp (TE) · slot 3.10 · value now 87 vs 29 expected (Nov '26)Brenen Thompson (WR) · slot 3.11 · value now 7 vs 25 expected (Nov '26)Eli Raridon (TE) · slot 3.12 · value now 210 vs 22 expected (Nov '26)Justin Joly (TE) · slot 4.01 · value now 5 vs 19 expected (Nov '26)Drew Allar (QB) · slot 4.02 · value now 8 vs 18 expected (Nov '26)Caleb Douglas (WR) · slot 4.03 · value now 390 vs 17 expected (Nov '26)Kevin Coleman (WR) · slot 4.04 · value now 46 vs 12 expected (Nov '26)Cyrus Allen (WR) · slot 4.05 · value now 40 vs 7 expected (Nov '26)Bryce Lance (WR) · slot 4.06 · value now 39 vs 7 expected (Nov '26)CJ Daniels (WR) · slot 4.07 · value now 4 vs 7 expected (Nov '26)Cade Klubnik (QB) · slot 4.08 · value now 13 vs 7 expected (Nov '26)Garrett Nussmeier (QB) · slot 4.09 · value now 6 vs 6 expected (Nov '26)Jack Endries (TE) · slot 4.10 · value now 4 vs 5 expected (Nov '26)Jam Miller (RB) · slot 4.11 · value now 2 vs 5 expected (Nov '26)Zavion Thomas (WR) · slot 4.12 · value now 5 vs 4 expected (Nov '26)Deion Burks (WR) · slot 5.01 · value now 4 vs 4 expected (Nov '26)Seth McGowan (RB) · slot 5.02 · value now 26 vs 3 expected (Nov '26)Matt Hibner (TE) · slot 5.03 · value now 66 vs 3 expected (Nov '26)Bauer Sharp (TE) · slot 5.04 · value now 0 vs 3 expected (Nov '26)Jaren Kanak (TE) · slot 5.05 · value now 2 vs 3 expected (Nov '26)Nate Boerkircher (TE) · slot 5.06 · value now 3 vs 3 expected (Nov '26)Colbie Young (WR) · slot 5.07 · value now 5 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Riley Nowakowski (TE) · slot 5.08 · value now 2 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Behren Morton (QB) · slot 5.09 · value now 0 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Josh Cuevas (TE) · slot 5.10 · value now 5 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Reggie Virgil (WR) · slot 5.11 · value now 3 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Carsen Ryan (TE) · slot 5.12 · value now 2 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Lewis Bond (WR) · slot 6.01 · value now 0 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Will Kacmarek (TE) · slot 6.02 · value now 2 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Barion Brown (WR) · slot 6.03 · value now 6 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Cole Payton (QB) · slot 6.04 · value now 18 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Kendrick Law (WR) · slot 6.05 · value now 3 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Josh Cameron (WR) · slot 6.06 · value now 15 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Kaden Wetjen (WR) · slot 6.07 · value now 2 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Marlin Klein (TE) · slot 6.08 · value now 9 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Taylen Green (QB) · slot 6.09 · value now 9 vs 2 expected (Nov '26)Seydou Traore (TE) · slot 6.10 · value now 3 vs 1 expected (Nov '26)Malik Benson (WR) · slot 6.11 · value now 7 vs 1 expected (Nov '26)Dallen Bentley (TE) · slot 6.12 · value now 3 vs 1 expected (Nov '26)Athan Kaliakmanis (QB) · slot 7.01 · value now 0 vs 1 expected (Nov '26)Tanner Koziol (TE) · slot 7.02 · value now 4 vs 1 expected (Nov '26)Sam Roush (TE) · slot 7.03 · value now 9 vs 1 expected (Nov '26)Joe Royer (TE) · slot 7.04 · value now 3 vs 1 expected (Nov '26)DouglasHibnerRaridonPayton

● hit◆ bust● otherDots on the floor: no longer valued (value 0).

So what: Denzel Boston (1.10) is now worth 3.1× his slot; KC Concepcion (1.06) is now worth 1.8× his slot; Carnell Tate (1.02) is now worth 1.2× his slot; 21 of 76 are worth less than their slot predicted, and 4 are no longer listed.

Biggest overperformers

PlayerRookie-draft slotNFL draft pickSlot expectationValue nowSurplusBest season
Denzel Boston WRRookie slot 1.10 · NFL round 2, pick 39 · expected 7341.10Round 2, #397342,281+1,547—
KC Concepcion WRRookie slot 1.06 · NFL round 1, pick 24 · expected 1,3001.06Round 1, #241,3002,380+1,080—
Carnell Tate WRRookie slot 1.02 · NFL round 1, pick 4 · expected 3,6751.02Round 1, #43,6754,530+855—
Antonio Williams WRRookie slot 2.04 · NFL round 3, pick 71 · expected 1682.04Round 3, #71168775+607—
Jonah Coleman RBRookie slot 1.12 · NFL round 4, pick 108 · expected 3161.12Round 4, #108316919+603—
Makai Lemon WRRookie slot 1.05 · NFL round 1, pick 20 · expected 1,7011.05Round 1, #201,7012,136+435—
De'Zhaun Stribling WRRookie slot 2.06 · NFL round 2, pick 33 · expected 1442.06Round 2, #33144559+415—
Germie Bernard WRRookie slot 2.05 · NFL round 2, pick 47 · expected 1462.05Round 2, #47146529+383—
Caleb Douglas WRRookie slot 4.03 · NFL round 3, pick 75 · expected 174.03Round 3, #7517390+373—
Omar Cooper WRRookie slot 1.09 · NFL round 1, pick 30 · expected 8101.09Round 1, #308101,143+333—

Steepest falls so far

PlayerRookie-draft slotNFL draft pickSlot expectationValue nowSurplusBest season
Chris Brazzell WRRookie slot 3.03 · NFL round 3, pick 83 · expected 653.03Round 3, #836532−33—
Brenen Thompson WRRookie slot 3.11 · NFL round 4, pick 105 · expected 253.11Round 4, #105257−18—
Justin Joly TERookie slot 4.01 · NFL round 5, pick 152 · expected 194.01Round 5, #152195−14—
Bauer Sharp TERookie slot 5.04 · NFL round 6, pick 185 · expected 35.04Round 6, #18530−3—
Behren Morton QBRookie slot 5.09 · NFL round 7, pick 234 · expected 25.09Round 7, #23420−2—
Lewis Bond WRRookie slot 6.01 · NFL round 6, pick 204 · expected 26.01Round 6, #20420−2—
Athan Kaliakmanis QBRookie slot 7.01 · NFL round 7, pick 223 · expected 17.01Round 7, #22310−1—

So what: About 1 in 10 of the 2026 rookies busted; the costliest by slot is Chris Brazzell at 3.03.

The whole class

Rookie-draft slotPlayerNFL draft pickAgeExpected+1y+2y+3yNowBest (PPR)Result
1.01Jeremiyah Love RBNFL round 1, pick 3 · expected 7,442 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #320.97,442———6,755—Open
1.02Carnell Tate WRNFL round 1, pick 4 · expected 3,675 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #421.33,675———4,530—Open
1.03Jordyn Tyson WRNFL round 1, pick 8 · expected 2,890 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #821.72,890———2,465—Open
1.04Jadarian Price RBNFL round 1, pick 32 · expected 2,814 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #3222.52,814———1,540—Open
1.05Makai Lemon WRNFL round 1, pick 20 · expected 1,701 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #2021.91,701———2,136—Open
1.06KC Concepcion WRNFL round 1, pick 24 · expected 1,300 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #2421.61,300———2,380—Open
1.07Kenyon Sadiq TENFL round 1, pick 16 · expected 1,216 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #1621.11,216———1,295—Open
1.08Fernando Mendoza QBNFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 873 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #122.6873———791—Open
1.09Omar Cooper WRNFL round 1, pick 30 · expected 810 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #3022.4810———1,143—Open
1.10Denzel Boston WRNFL round 2, pick 39 · expected 734 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 2, #3922.4734———2,281—Open
1.11Eli Stowers TENFL round 2, pick 54 · expected 533 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 2, #5423.0533———492—Open
1.12Jonah Coleman RBNFL round 4, pick 108 · expected 316 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #10822.7316———919—Open
2.01Nicholas Singleton RBNFL round 5, pick 165 · expected 298 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #16522.3298———88—Open
2.02Emmett Johnson RBNFL round 5, pick 161 · expected 271 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #16122.5271———288—Open
2.03Chris Bell WRNFL round 3, pick 94 · expected 220 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #9421.9220———523—Open
2.04Antonio Williams WRNFL round 3, pick 71 · expected 168 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #7121.8168———775—Open
2.05Germie Bernard WRNFL round 2, pick 47 · expected 146 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 2, #4722.4146———529—Open
2.06De'Zhaun Stribling WRNFL round 2, pick 33 · expected 144 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 2, #3323.4144———559—Open
2.07Zachariah Branch WRNFL round 3, pick 79 · expected 111 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #7922.1111———50—Open
2.08Ty Simpson QBNFL round 1, pick 13 · expected 102 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 1, #1323.3102———194—Open
2.09Mike Washington RBNFL round 4, pick 122 · expected 89 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #12222.889———210—Open
2.10Kaytron Allen RBNFL round 6, pick 187 · expected 79 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #18723.379———27—Open
2.11Elijah Sarratt WRNFL round 4, pick 115 · expected 75 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #11522.975———50—Open
2.12Ja'Kobi Lane WRNFL round 3, pick 80 · expected 74 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #8022.074———267—Open
3.01Ted Hurst WRNFL round 3, pick 84 · expected 72 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #8421.872———127—Open
3.02Malachi Fields WRNFL round 3, pick 74 · expected 71 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #7422.771———161—Open
3.03Chris Brazzell WRNFL round 3, pick 83 · expected 65 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #8322.665———32—Falling
3.04Max Klare TENFL round 2, pick 61 · expected 64 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 2, #6122.864———126—Open
3.05Skyler Bell WRNFL round 4, pick 125 · expected 62 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #12523.862———40—Open
3.06Demond Claiborne RBNFL round 6, pick 198 · expected 52 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #19822.552———17—Open
3.07Kaelon Black RBNFL round 3, pick 90 · expected 51 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #9024.551———127—Open
3.08Adam Randall RBNFL round 5, pick 174 · expected 46 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #17421.846———8—Open
3.09Carson Beck QBNFL round 3, pick 65 · expected 31 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #6523.431———27—Open
3.10Oscar Delp TENFL round 3, pick 73 · expected 29 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #7322.729———87—Open
3.11Brenen Thompson WRNFL round 4, pick 105 · expected 25 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #10522.825———7—Falling
3.12Eli Raridon TENFL round 3, pick 95 · expected 22 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #9522.222———210—Open
4.01Justin Joly TENFL round 5, pick 152 · expected 19 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #15221.819———5—Falling
4.02Drew Allar QBNFL round 3, pick 76 · expected 18 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #7622.118———8—Open
4.03Caleb Douglas WRNFL round 3, pick 75 · expected 17 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #7522.617———390—Open
4.04Kevin Coleman WRNFL round 5, pick 177 · expected 12 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #17722.612———46—Open
4.05Cyrus Allen WRNFL round 5, pick 176 · expected 7 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #17623.27———40—Open
4.06Bryce Lance WRNFL round 4, pick 136 · expected 7 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #13623.77———39—Open
4.07CJ Daniels WRNFL round 6, pick 197 · expected 7 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #19724.37———4—Open
4.08Cade Klubnik QBNFL round 4, pick 110 · expected 7 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #11022.57———13—Open
4.09Garrett Nussmeier QBNFL round 7, pick 249 · expected 6 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #24924.26———6—Open
4.10Jack Endries TENFL round 7, pick 221 · expected 5 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #22122.15———4—Open
4.11Jam Miller RBNFL round 7, pick 245 · expected 5 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #24522.05———2—Open
4.12Zavion Thomas WRNFL round 3, pick 89 · expected 4 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #8922.24———5—Open
5.01Deion Burks WRNFL round 7, pick 254 · expected 4 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #25423.34———4—Open
5.02Seth McGowan RBNFL round 7, pick 237 · expected 3 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #23724.53———26—Open
5.03Matt Hibner TENFL round 4, pick 133 · expected 3 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #13324.13———66—Open
5.04Bauer Sharp TENFL round 6, pick 185 · expected 3 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #18523.03———0—Falling
5.05Jaren Kanak TENFL round 7, pick 225 · expected 3 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #22522.23———2—Open
5.06Nate Boerkircher TENFL round 2, pick 56 · expected 3 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 2, #5624.63———3—Open
5.07Colbie Young WRNFL round 4, pick 140 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #14023.82———5—Open
5.08Riley Nowakowski TENFL round 5, pick 169 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #16923.82———2—Open
5.09Behren Morton QBNFL round 7, pick 234 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #23424.32———0—Falling
5.10Josh Cuevas TENFL round 5, pick 173 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #17322.62———5—Open
5.11Reggie Virgil WRNFL round 5, pick 143 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #14321.92———3—Open
5.12Carsen Ryan TENFL round 7, pick 248 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #24822.72———2—Open
6.01Lewis Bond WRNFL round 6, pick 204 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #20422.92———0—Falling
6.02Will Kacmarek TENFL round 3, pick 87 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #8723.22———2—Open
6.03Barion Brown WRNFL round 6, pick 190 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #19022.42———6—Open
6.04Cole Payton QBNFL round 5, pick 178 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #17823.52———18—Open
6.05Kendrick Law WRNFL round 5, pick 168 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #16822.92———3—Open
6.06Josh Cameron WRNFL round 6, pick 191 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #19123.12———15—Open
6.07Kaden Wetjen WRNFL round 4, pick 121 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 4, #12124.12———2—Open
6.08Marlin Klein TENFL round 2, pick 59 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 2, #5923.62———9—Open
6.09Taylen Green QBNFL round 6, pick 182 · expected 2 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #18223.52———9—Open
6.10Seydou Traore TENFL round 5, pick 180 · expected 1 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #18023.71———3—Open
6.11Malik Benson WRNFL round 6, pick 195 · expected 1 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 6, #19523.51———7—Open
6.12Dallen Bentley TENFL round 7, pick 256 · expected 1 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #25625.31———3—Open
7.01Athan Kaliakmanis QBNFL round 7, pick 223 · expected 1 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 7, #22322.71———0—Falling
7.02Tanner Koziol TENFL round 5, pick 164 · expected 1 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #16422.21———4—Open
7.03Sam Roush TENFL round 3, pick 69 · expected 1 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 3, #6922.61———9—Open
7.04Joe Royer TENFL round 5, pick 170 · expected 1 · a year later —, two years —, three years —Round 5, #17024.21———3—Open

About these numbers

We compare what the market expected from each rookie on rookie-draft day with how he did over his first three NFL seasons. A hit is a top-end season, a bust never had one and lost most of his value, and everyone else is in between. Only classes whose three seasons are over count in the headline numbers. The full method is in our public notes. A dash in a later-year column means that date has not arrived yet, and 0 means he is no longer valued.

Values come from the market, Sleeper season totals and nflverse draft capital.