Class 2025 · still playing out · 2026-11-11

The 2025 dynasty rookie class: expectation vs reality

This class is still playing out. So far, 1 in 10 of its rookies have become a hit. Tyler Shough (QB) is the biggest riser.

Class 2025 means the players picked in the 2025 NFL draft. Hits and busts count their 2025-2027 seasons, and only 2025 is finished so far, so these are so-far numbers. "Two years later" means value in 2027, which is still to come, so that column fills in later.

So what: out of every 10 2025 rookies, 1 have hit so far and 4 look like busts so far; Tyler Shough is the biggest riser.

Superflex1QB

Superflex

Hits, in-betweens and busts, by position

Grouped by position, all picks in the class together. Busts so far: no top season yet and value already down a lot.

Class 2025

All
- 1 hit
- 5 in between
- 4 bust
out of every 10 rookies
QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
RB
- 1 hit
- 5 in between
- 4 bust
out of every 10 rookies
WR
- 1 hit
- 6 in between
- 3 bust
out of every 10 rookies
TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

By dynasty rookie-draft round

Grouped by dynasty rookie-draft round: where he went in a 12-team fantasy rookie draft. This is not where he went in the real NFL draft.

Rookie-draft round 1

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 2

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 3

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 4 and later

All
- 0 hit
- 6 in between
- 4 bust
out of every 10 rookies

Hit: a top-24 RB or WR season, or a top-12 QB or TE season, in his first three years.

Bust: never a top-36 season, and worth under a quarter of his draft-day value three years in.

In between: everyone else.

Every 2025 rookie: value now vs his slot expectation (Superflex)

● hit◆ bust● otherDots on the floor: no longer valued (value 0).

So what: Tyler Shough (2.11) is now worth +3,558 points over his slot; Luther Burden (2.03) is now worth 4.9× his slot; Jaxson Dart (2.01) is now worth 3.6× his slot; 33 of 80 are worth less than their slot predicted, and 8 are no longer listed.

Biggest overperformers

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Tyler Shough QBRookie slot 2.11 · NFL round 2, pick 40 · expected 236	2.11	Round 2, #40	236	3,794	+3,558	—
Luther Burden WRRookie slot 2.03 · NFL round 2, pick 39 · expected 891	2.03	Round 2, #39	891	4,368	+3,477	—
Jaxson Dart QBRookie slot 2.01 · NFL round 1, pick 25 · expected 1,202	2.01	Round 1, #25	1,202	4,378	+3,176	—
Emeka Egbuka WRRookie slot 1.12 · NFL round 1, pick 19 · expected 1,227	1.12	Round 1, #19	1,227	4,399	+3,172	—
Colston Loveland TERookie slot 1.09 · NFL round 1, pick 10 · expected 1,381	1.09	Round 1, #10	1,381	4,287	+2,906	—
Tetairoa McMillan WRRookie slot 1.05 · NFL round 1, pick 8 · expected 2,591	1.05	Round 1, #8	2,591	5,447	+2,856	—
Bhayshul Tuten RBRookie slot 2.08 · NFL round 4, pick 104 · expected 314	2.08	Round 4, #104	314	3,092	+2,778	—
Matthew Golden WRRookie slot 2.02 · NFL round 1, pick 23 · expected 1,050	2.02	Round 1, #23	1,050	3,776	+2,726	—
Harold Fannin TERookie slot 3.08 · NFL round 3, pick 67 · expected 100	3.08	Round 3, #67	100	2,118	+2,018	—
Tyler Warren TERookie slot 1.08 · NFL round 1, pick 14 · expected 1,631	1.08	Round 1, #14	1,631	3,181	+1,550	—

Steepest falls so far

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Travis Hunter WRRookie slot 1.04 · NFL round 1, pick 2 · expected 3,252	1.04	Round 1, #2	3,252	231	−3,021	—
Kaleb Johnson RBRookie slot 1.11 · NFL round 3, pick 83 · expected 1,208	1.11	Round 3, #83	1,208	55	−1,153	—
Jack Bech WRRookie slot 2.07 · NFL round 2, pick 58 · expected 352	2.07	Round 2, #58	352	48	−304	—
Jalen Milroe QBRookie slot 2.10 · NFL round 3, pick 92 · expected 249	2.10	Round 3, #92	249	13	−236	—
Kyle Williams WRRookie slot 2.12 · NFL round 3, pick 69 · expected 235	2.12	Round 3, #69	235	74	−161	—
Jaydon Blue RBRookie slot 3.02 · NFL round 5, pick 149 · expected 219	3.02	Round 5, #149	219	24	−195	—
Elijah Arroyo TERookie slot 3.05 · NFL round 2, pick 50 · expected 129	3.05	Round 2, #50	129	39	−90	—
Devin Neal RBRookie slot 3.07 · NFL round 6, pick 184 · expected 103	3.07	Round 6, #184	103	21	−82	—
Jalen Royals WRRookie slot 3.09 · NFL round 4, pick 133 · expected 90	3.09	Round 4, #133	90	22	−68	—
Will Howard QBRookie slot 3.11 · NFL round 6, pick 185 · expected 64	3.11	Round 6, #185	64	8	−56	—

So what: About 4 in 10 of the 2025 rookies busted; the costliest by slot is Travis Hunter at 1.04.

The whole class

Rookie-draft slot	Player	NFL draft pick	Age	Expected	+1y	+2y	+3y	Now	Best (PPR)	Result
1.01	Ashton Jeanty RBNFL round 1, pick 6 · expected 7,853 · a year later 6,939, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #6	21.4	7,853	6,939	—	—	6,731	—	Hit
1.02	Omarion Hampton RBNFL round 1, pick 22 · expected 3,854 · a year later 5,461, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #22	22.1	3,854	5,461	—	—	2,108	—	Open
1.03	Cam Ward QBNFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 3,217 · a year later 2,445, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #1	22.9	3,217	2,445	—	—	0	—	Open
1.04	Travis Hunter WRNFL round 1, pick 2 · expected 3,252 · a year later 453, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #2	21.9	3,252	453	—	—	231	—	Falling
1.05	Tetairoa McMillan WRNFL round 1, pick 8 · expected 2,591 · a year later 5,473, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #8	22.1	2,591	5,473	—	—	5,447	—	Hit
1.06	TreVeyon Henderson RBNFL round 2, pick 38 · expected 2,413 · a year later 2,692, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #38	22.5	2,413	2,692	—	—	1,686	—	Hit
1.07	Quinshon Judkins RBNFL round 2, pick 36 · expected 1,855 · a year later 2,247, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #36	21.5	1,855	2,247	—	—	2,416	—	Open
1.08	Tyler Warren TENFL round 1, pick 14 · expected 1,631 · a year later 2,943, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #14	22.9	1,631	2,943	—	—	3,181	—	Hit
1.09	Colston Loveland TENFL round 1, pick 10 · expected 1,381 · a year later 3,397, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #10	21.0	1,381	3,397	—	—	4,287	—	Hit
1.10	RJ Harvey RBNFL round 2, pick 60 · expected 1,448 · a year later 894, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #60	24.2	1,448	894	—	—	438	—	Hit
1.11	Kaleb Johnson RBNFL round 3, pick 83 · expected 1,208 · a year later 61, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #83	21.7	1,208	61	—	—	55	—	Falling
1.12	Emeka Egbuka WRNFL round 1, pick 19 · expected 1,227 · a year later 4,765, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #19	22.5	1,227	4,765	—	—	4,399	—	Hit
2.01	Jaxson Dart QBNFL round 1, pick 25 · expected 1,202 · a year later 7,137, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #25	22.0	1,202	7,137	—	—	4,378	—	Open
2.02	Matthew Golden WRNFL round 1, pick 23 · expected 1,050 · a year later 618, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #23	21.7	1,050	618	—	—	3,776	—	Open
2.03	Luther Burden WRNFL round 2, pick 39 · expected 891 · a year later 3,349, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #39	21.4	891	3,349	—	—	4,368	—	Open
2.04	Cam Skattebo RBNFL round 4, pick 105 · expected 758 · a year later 1,636, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #105	23.2	758	1,636	—	—	1,342	—	Open
2.05	Jayden Higgins WRNFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 549 · a year later 806, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #34	22.4	549	806	—	—	636	—	Open
2.06	Tre' Harris WRNFL round 2, pick 55 · expected 406 · a year later 221, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #55	23.2	406	221	—	—	242	—	Open
2.07	Jack Bech WRNFL round 2, pick 58 · expected 352 · a year later 82, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #58	22.4	352	82	—	—	48	—	Falling
2.08	Bhayshul Tuten RBNFL round 4, pick 104 · expected 314 · a year later 1,022, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #104	22.2	314	1,022	—	—	3,092	—	Open
2.09	Mason Taylor TENFL round 2, pick 42 · expected 274 · a year later 106, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #42	21.0	274	106	—	—	103	—	Open
2.10	Jalen Milroe QBNFL round 3, pick 92 · expected 249 · a year later 62, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #92	22.4	249	62	—	—	13	—	Falling
2.11	Tyler Shough QBNFL round 2, pick 40 · expected 236 · a year later 2,183, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #40	25.6	236	2,183	—	—	3,794	—	Open
2.12	Kyle Williams WRNFL round 3, pick 69 · expected 235 · a year later 83, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #69	22.5	235	83	—	—	74	—	Falling
3.01	Shedeur Sanders QBNFL round 5, pick 144 · expected 216 · a year later 361, two years —, three years —	Round 5, #144	23.2	216	361	—	—	247	—	Open
3.02	Jaydon Blue RBNFL round 5, pick 149 · expected 219 · a year later 29, two years —, three years —	Round 5, #149	21.3	219	29	—	—	24	—	Falling
3.03	Terrance Ferguson TENFL round 2, pick 46 · expected 136 · a year later 224, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #46	22.1	136	224	—	—	413	—	Open
3.04	Jaylin Noel WRNFL round 3, pick 79 · expected 128 · a year later 198, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #79	22.6	128	198	—	—	217	—	Open
3.05	Elijah Arroyo TENFL round 2, pick 50 · expected 129 · a year later 66, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #50	22.1	129	66	—	—	39	—	Falling
3.06	Dylan Sampson RBNFL round 4, pick 126 · expected 109 · a year later 111, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #126	20.6	109	111	—	—	146	—	Open
3.07	Devin Neal RBNFL round 6, pick 184 · expected 103 · a year later 45, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #184	21.7	103	45	—	—	21	—	Falling
3.08	Harold Fannin TENFL round 3, pick 67 · expected 100 · a year later 2,474, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #67	20.8	100	2,474	—	—	2,118	—	Hit
3.09	Jalen Royals WRNFL round 4, pick 133 · expected 90 · a year later 24, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #133	22.2	90	24	—	—	22	—	Falling
3.10	Elic Ayomanor WRNFL round 4, pick 136 · expected 64 · a year later 116, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #136	21.9	64	116	—	—	79	—	Open
3.11	Will Howard QBNFL round 6, pick 185 · expected 64 · a year later 16, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #185	23.6	64	16	—	—	8	—	Falling
3.12	Pat Bryant WRNFL round 3, pick 74 · expected 57 · a year later 155, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #74	22.4	57	155	—	—	205	—	Open
4.01	Jarquez Hunter RBNFL round 4, pick 117 · expected 55 · a year later 24, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #117	22.3	55	24	—	—	16	—	Falling
4.02	DJ Giddens RBNFL round 5, pick 151 · expected 48 · a year later 27, two years —, three years —	Round 5, #151	21.7	48	27	—	—	18	—	Falling
4.03	Ollie Gordon RBNFL round 6, pick 179 · expected 40 · a year later 40, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #179	21.3	40	40	—	—	182	—	Open
4.04	Woody Marks RBNFL round 4, pick 116 · expected 37 · a year later 225, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #116	24.3	37	225	—	—	282	—	Open
4.05	Jordan James RBNFL round 5, pick 147 · expected 29 · a year later 23, two years —, three years —	Round 5, #147	21.1	29	23	—	—	18	—	Open
4.06	Dillon Gabriel QBNFL round 3, pick 94 · expected 28 · a year later 8, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #94	24.3	28	8	—	—	3	—	Falling
4.07	Quinn Ewers QBNFL round 7, pick 231 · expected 25 · a year later 32, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #231	22.1	25	32	—	—	8	—	Falling
4.08	Trevor Etienne RBNFL round 4, pick 114 · expected 24 · a year later 18, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #114	20.8	24	18	—	—	11	—	Open
4.09	Brashard Smith RBNFL round 7, pick 228 · expected 24 · a year later 24, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #228	22.0	24	24	—	—	14	—	Open
4.10	Isaac TeSlaa WRNFL round 3, pick 70 · expected 20 · a year later 115, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #70	23.2	20	115	—	—	68	—	Open
4.11	Tory Horton WRNFL round 5, pick 166 · expected 17 · a year later 80, two years —, three years —	Round 5, #166	22.4	17	80	—	—	61	—	Open
4.12	Oronde Gadsden TENFL round 5, pick 165 · expected 17 · a year later 1,005, two years —, three years —	Round 5, #165	21.8	17	1,005	—	—	430	—	Open
5.01	Kyle Monangai RBNFL round 7, pick 233 · expected 16 · a year later 582, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #233	22.9	16	582	—	—	687	—	Open
5.02	Gunnar Helm TENFL round 4, pick 120 · expected 16 · a year later 121, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #120	22.6	16	121	—	—	126	—	Open
5.03	Tahj Brooks RBNFL round 6, pick 193 · expected 15 · a year later 18, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #193	23.0	15	18	—	—	11	—	Falling
5.04	Savion Williams WRNFL round 3, pick 87 · expected 15 · a year later 16, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #87	23.4	15	16	—	—	19	—	Open
5.05	Damien Martinez RBNFL round 7, pick 223 · expected 14 · a year later 8, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #223	21.2	14	8	—	—	2	—	Falling
5.06	Tai Felton WRNFL round 3, pick 102 · expected 14 · a year later 11, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #102	22.1	14	11	—	—	7	—	Falling
5.07	Jimmy Horn WRNFL round 6, pick 208 · expected 13 · a year later 6, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #208	22.6	13	6	—	—	2	—	Open
5.08	Dont'e Thornton WRNFL round 4, pick 108 · expected 13 · a year later 13, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #108	22.4	13	13	—	—	13	—	Open
5.09	Jacory Croskey-Merritt RBNFL round 7, pick 245 · expected 12 · a year later 227, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #245	24.0	12	227	—	—	279	—	Open
5.10	Kurtis Rourke QBNFL round 7, pick 227 · expected 11 · a year later 2, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #227	24.5	11	2	—	—	2	—	Open
5.11	Konata Mumpfield WRNFL round 7, pick 242 · expected 10 · a year later 18, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #242	22.5	10	18	—	—	41	—	Open
5.12	Riley Leonard QBNFL round 6, pick 189 · expected 10 · a year later 7, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #189	22.6	10	7	—	—	3	—	Falling
6.01	Jordan Watkins WRNFL round 4, pick 138 · expected 10 · a year later 7, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #138	23.2	10	7	—	—	10	—	Open
6.02	Luke Lachey TENFL round 7, pick 255 · expected 7 · a year later 2, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #255	23.8	7	2	—	—	0	—	Falling
6.03	Phil Mafah RBNFL round 7, pick 239 · expected 7 · a year later 10, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #239	22.5	7	10	—	—	2	—	Falling
6.04	KeAndre Lambert-Smith WRNFL round 5, pick 158 · expected 6 · a year later 8, two years —, three years —	Round 5, #158	23.5	6	8	—	—	6	—	Open
6.05	Thomas Fidone TENFL round 7, pick 219 · expected 5 · a year later 3, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #219	22.6	5	3	—	—	2	—	Falling
6.06	Gavin Bartholomew TENFL round 6, pick 202 · expected 5 · a year later 2, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #202	22.0	5	2	—	—	0	—	Falling
6.07	Kaden Prather WRNFL round 7, pick 240 · expected 4 · a year later 0, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #240	22.6	4	0	—	—	0	—	Falling
6.08	LaJohntay Wester WRNFL round 6, pick 203 · expected 4 · a year later 0, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #203	23.1	4	0	—	—	0	—	Falling
6.09	Dominic Lovett WRNFL round 7, pick 244 · expected 4 · a year later 2, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #244	22.5	4	2	—	—	1	—	Open
6.10	Moliki Matavao TENFL round 7, pick 248 · expected 4 · a year later 1, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #248	22.1	4	1	—	—	1	—	Open
6.11	Caleb Lohner TENFL round 7, pick 241 · expected 4 · a year later 0, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #241	23.6	4	0	—	—	0	—	Falling
6.12	Mitchell Evans TENFL round 5, pick 163 · expected 3 · a year later 6, two years —, three years —	Round 5, #163	22.1	3	6	—	—	10	—	Open
7.01	Ricky White WRNFL round 7, pick 238 · expected 3 · a year later 3, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #238	23.2	3	3	—	—	0	—	Falling
7.02	Chimere Dike WRNFL round 4, pick 103 · expected 2 · a year later 94, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #103	23.4	2	94	—	—	49	—	Open
7.03	Tez Johnson WRNFL round 7, pick 235 · expected 2 · a year later 32, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #235	22.9	2	32	—	—	16	—	Open
7.04	Kyle McCord QBNFL round 6, pick 181 · expected 1 · a year later 2, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #181	22.6	1	2	—	—	2	—	Falling
7.05	Arian Smith WRNFL round 4, pick 110 · expected 1 · a year later 4, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #110	23.5	1	4	—	—	1	—	Falling
7.06	Kalel Mullings RBNFL round 6, pick 188 · expected 1 · a year later 2, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #188	22.6	1	2	—	—	0	—	Falling
7.07	LeQuint Allen RBNFL round 7, pick 236 · expected 1 · a year later 14, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #236	20.7	1	14	—	—	9	—	Open
7.08	Jaylin Lane WRNFL round 4, pick 128 · expected 1 · a year later 12, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #128	23.0	1	12	—	—	9	—	Open

1QB

Hits, in-betweens and busts, by position

Grouped by position, all picks in the class together. Busts so far: no top season yet and value already down a lot.

Class 2025

All
- 1 hit
- 6 in between
- 3 bust
out of every 10 rookies
QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
RB
- 1 hit
- 4 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
WR
- 1 hit
- 6 in between
- 3 bust
out of every 10 rookies
TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

By dynasty rookie-draft round

Grouped by dynasty rookie-draft round: where he went in a 12-team fantasy rookie draft. This is not where he went in the real NFL draft.

Rookie-draft round 1

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 2

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 3

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 4 and later

All
- 0 hit
- 6 in between
- 4 bust
out of every 10 rookies

Hit: a top-24 RB or WR season, or a top-12 QB or TE season, in his first three years.

Bust: never a top-36 season, and worth under a quarter of his draft-day value three years in.

In between: everyone else.

Every 2025 rookie: value now vs his slot expectation (1QB)

● hit◆ bust● otherDots on the floor: no longer valued (value 0).

So what: Luther Burden (2.02) is now worth 6.2× his slot; Colston Loveland (1.11) is now worth 4.4× his slot; Emeka Egbuka (1.08) is now worth 3.3× his slot; 33 of 80 are worth less than their slot predicted, and 8 are no longer listed.

Biggest overperformers

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Luther Burden WRRookie slot 2.02 · NFL round 2, pick 39 · expected 760	2.02	Round 2, #39	760	4,737	+3,977	—
Colston Loveland TERookie slot 1.11 · NFL round 1, pick 10 · expected 1,017	1.11	Round 1, #10	1,017	4,488	+3,471	—
Emeka Egbuka WRRookie slot 1.08 · NFL round 1, pick 19 · expected 1,458	1.08	Round 1, #19	1,458	4,793	+3,335	—
Matthew Golden WRRookie slot 1.12 · NFL round 1, pick 23 · expected 994	1.12	Round 1, #23	994	4,193	+3,199	—
Bhayshul Tuten RBRookie slot 2.08 · NFL round 4, pick 104 · expected 236	2.08	Round 4, #104	236	3,125	+2,889	—
Tetairoa McMillan WRRookie slot 1.04 · NFL round 1, pick 8 · expected 3,112	1.04	Round 1, #8	3,112	5,992	+2,880	—
Tyler Warren TERookie slot 1.10 · NFL round 1, pick 14 · expected 1,186	1.10	Round 1, #14	1,186	3,506	+2,320	—
Harold Fannin TERookie slot 3.10 · NFL round 3, pick 67 · expected 48	3.10	Round 3, #67	48	2,176	+2,128	—
Quinshon Judkins RBRookie slot 1.06 · NFL round 2, pick 36 · expected 1,664	1.06	Round 2, #36	1,664	2,602	+938	—
Jaxson Dart QBRookie slot 2.10 · NFL round 1, pick 25 · expected 192	2.10	Round 1, #25	192	1,129	+937	—

Steepest falls so far

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Travis Hunter WRRookie slot 1.03 · NFL round 1, pick 2 · expected 3,504	1.03	Round 1, #2	3,504	204	−3,300	—
Kaleb Johnson RBRookie slot 1.09 · NFL round 3, pick 83 · expected 1,475	1.09	Round 3, #83	1,475	38	−1,437	—
Jack Bech WRRookie slot 2.06 · NFL round 2, pick 58 · expected 326	2.06	Round 2, #58	326	39	−287	—
Jaydon Blue RBRookie slot 2.09 · NFL round 5, pick 149 · expected 207	2.09	Round 5, #149	207	13	−194	—
Kyle Williams WRRookie slot 2.11 · NFL round 3, pick 69 · expected 121	2.11	Round 3, #69	121	68	−53	—
Devin Neal RBRookie slot 3.01 · NFL round 6, pick 184 · expected 115	3.01	Round 6, #184	115	10	−105	—
Jalen Milroe QBRookie slot 3.03 · NFL round 3, pick 92 · expected 87	3.03	Round 3, #92	87	13	−74	—
Elijah Arroyo TERookie slot 3.04 · NFL round 2, pick 50 · expected 87	3.04	Round 2, #50	87	26	−61	—
Jalen Royals WRRookie slot 3.07 · NFL round 4, pick 133 · expected 52	3.07	Round 4, #133	52	12	−40	—
DJ Giddens RBRookie slot 3.12 · NFL round 5, pick 151 · expected 40	3.12	Round 5, #151	40	6	−34	—

So what: About 1 in 3 of the 2025 rookies busted; the costliest by slot is Travis Hunter at 1.03.

The whole class

Rookie-draft slot	Player	NFL draft pick	Age	Expected	+1y	+2y	+3y	Now	Best (PPR)	Result
1.01	Ashton Jeanty RBNFL round 1, pick 6 · expected 8,080 · a year later 7,508, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #6	21.4	8,080	7,508	—	—	7,096	—	Hit
1.02	Omarion Hampton RBNFL round 1, pick 22 · expected 4,271 · a year later 6,149, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #22	22.1	4,271	6,149	—	—	2,192	—	Open
1.03	Travis Hunter WRNFL round 1, pick 2 · expected 3,504 · a year later 470, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #2	21.9	3,504	470	—	—	204	—	Falling
1.04	Tetairoa McMillan WRNFL round 1, pick 8 · expected 3,112 · a year later 6,236, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #8	22.1	3,112	6,236	—	—	5,992	—	Hit
1.05	TreVeyon Henderson RBNFL round 2, pick 38 · expected 2,478 · a year later 3,003, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #38	22.5	2,478	3,003	—	—	1,859	—	Hit
1.06	Quinshon Judkins RBNFL round 2, pick 36 · expected 1,664 · a year later 2,401, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #36	21.5	1,664	2,401	—	—	2,602	—	Open
1.07	RJ Harvey RBNFL round 2, pick 60 · expected 1,495 · a year later 998, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #60	24.2	1,495	998	—	—	421	—	Hit
1.08	Emeka Egbuka WRNFL round 1, pick 19 · expected 1,458 · a year later 5,327, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #19	22.5	1,458	5,327	—	—	4,793	—	Hit
1.09	Kaleb Johnson RBNFL round 3, pick 83 · expected 1,475 · a year later 49, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #83	21.7	1,475	49	—	—	38	—	Falling
1.10	Tyler Warren TENFL round 1, pick 14 · expected 1,186 · a year later 3,253, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #14	22.9	1,186	3,253	—	—	3,506	—	Hit
1.11	Colston Loveland TENFL round 1, pick 10 · expected 1,017 · a year later 3,718, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #10	21.0	1,017	3,718	—	—	4,488	—	Hit
1.12	Matthew Golden WRNFL round 1, pick 23 · expected 994 · a year later 665, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #23	21.7	994	665	—	—	4,193	—	Open
2.01	Cam Ward QBNFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 881 · a year later 512, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #1	22.9	881	512	—	—	0	—	Open
2.02	Luther Burden WRNFL round 2, pick 39 · expected 760 · a year later 3,798, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #39	21.4	760	3,798	—	—	4,737	—	Open
2.03	Cam Skattebo RBNFL round 4, pick 105 · expected 585 · a year later 1,790, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #105	23.2	585	1,790	—	—	1,422	—	Open
2.04	Jayden Higgins WRNFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 393 · a year later 910, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #34	22.4	393	910	—	—	669	—	Open
2.05	Tre' Harris WRNFL round 2, pick 55 · expected 356 · a year later 235, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #55	23.2	356	235	—	—	229	—	Open
2.06	Jack Bech WRNFL round 2, pick 58 · expected 326 · a year later 80, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #58	22.4	326	80	—	—	39	—	Falling
2.07	Mason Taylor TENFL round 2, pick 42 · expected 303 · a year later 92, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #42	21.0	303	92	—	—	106	—	Open
2.08	Bhayshul Tuten RBNFL round 4, pick 104 · expected 236 · a year later 1,117, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #104	22.2	236	1,117	—	—	3,125	—	Open
2.09	Jaydon Blue RBNFL round 5, pick 149 · expected 207 · a year later 18, two years —, three years —	Round 5, #149	21.3	207	18	—	—	13	—	Falling
2.10	Jaxson Dart QBNFL round 1, pick 25 · expected 192 · a year later 2,110, two years —, three years —	Round 1, #25	22.0	192	2,110	—	—	1,129	—	Open
2.11	Kyle Williams WRNFL round 3, pick 69 · expected 121 · a year later 81, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #69	22.5	121	81	—	—	68	—	Falling
2.12	Dylan Sampson RBNFL round 4, pick 126 · expected 116 · a year later 109, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #126	20.6	116	109	—	—	141	—	Open
3.01	Devin Neal RBNFL round 6, pick 184 · expected 115 · a year later 36, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #184	21.7	115	36	—	—	10	—	Falling
3.02	Jaylin Noel WRNFL round 3, pick 79 · expected 113 · a year later 194, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #79	22.6	113	194	—	—	193	—	Open
3.03	Jalen Milroe QBNFL round 3, pick 92 · expected 87 · a year later 17, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #92	22.4	87	17	—	—	13	—	Falling
3.04	Elijah Arroyo TENFL round 2, pick 50 · expected 87 · a year later 60, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #50	22.1	87	60	—	—	26	—	Falling
3.05	Terrance Ferguson TENFL round 2, pick 46 · expected 83 · a year later 227, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #46	22.1	83	227	—	—	406	—	Open
3.06	Elic Ayomanor WRNFL round 4, pick 136 · expected 74 · a year later 103, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #136	21.9	74	103	—	—	66	—	Open
3.07	Jalen Royals WRNFL round 4, pick 133 · expected 52 · a year later 17, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #133	22.2	52	17	—	—	12	—	Falling
3.08	Ollie Gordon RBNFL round 6, pick 179 · expected 50 · a year later 30, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #179	21.3	50	30	—	—	186	—	Open
3.09	Shedeur Sanders QBNFL round 5, pick 144 · expected 50 · a year later 68, two years —, three years —	Round 5, #144	23.2	50	68	—	—	54	—	Open
3.10	Harold Fannin TENFL round 3, pick 67 · expected 48 · a year later 2,734, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #67	20.8	48	2,734	—	—	2,176	—	Hit
3.11	Pat Bryant WRNFL round 3, pick 74 · expected 41 · a year later 153, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #74	22.4	41	153	—	—	165	—	Open
3.12	DJ Giddens RBNFL round 5, pick 151 · expected 40 · a year later 15, two years —, three years —	Round 5, #151	21.7	40	15	—	—	6	—	Falling
4.01	Jordan James RBNFL round 5, pick 147 · expected 32 · a year later 12, two years —, three years —	Round 5, #147	21.1	32	12	—	—	7	—	Falling
4.02	Tory Horton WRNFL round 5, pick 166 · expected 30 · a year later 70, two years —, three years —	Round 5, #166	22.4	30	70	—	—	49	—	Open
4.03	Jarquez Hunter RBNFL round 4, pick 117 · expected 30 · a year later 14, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #117	22.3	30	14	—	—	7	—	Falling
4.04	Isaac TeSlaa WRNFL round 3, pick 70 · expected 23 · a year later 117, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #70	23.2	23	117	—	—	70	—	Open
4.05	Tyler Shough QBNFL round 2, pick 40 · expected 20 · a year later 453, two years —, three years —	Round 2, #40	25.6	20	453	—	—	830	—	Open
4.06	Trevor Etienne RBNFL round 4, pick 114 · expected 19 · a year later 9, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #114	20.8	19	9	—	—	5	—	Falling
4.07	Woody Marks RBNFL round 4, pick 116 · expected 19 · a year later 211, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #116	24.3	19	211	—	—	265	—	Open
4.08	Brashard Smith RBNFL round 7, pick 228 · expected 18 · a year later 14, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #228	22.0	18	14	—	—	5	—	Falling
4.09	Jacory Croskey-Merritt RBNFL round 7, pick 245 · expected 19 · a year later 236, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #245	24.0	19	236	—	—	274	—	Open
4.10	Will Howard QBNFL round 6, pick 185 · expected 15 · a year later 7, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #185	23.6	15	7	—	—	5	—	Open
4.11	Tez Johnson WRNFL round 7, pick 235 · expected 14 · a year later 23, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #235	22.9	14	23	—	—	7	—	Open
4.12	Dont'e Thornton WRNFL round 4, pick 108 · expected 12 · a year later 7, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #108	22.4	12	7	—	—	10	—	Open
5.01	Damien Martinez RBNFL round 7, pick 223 · expected 12 · a year later 5, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #223	21.2	12	5	—	—	2	—	Falling
5.02	Quinn Ewers QBNFL round 7, pick 231 · expected 11 · a year later 14, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #231	22.1	11	14	—	—	8	—	Open
5.03	Dillon Gabriel QBNFL round 3, pick 94 · expected 10 · a year later 4, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #94	24.3	10	4	—	—	5	—	Open
5.04	Gunnar Helm TENFL round 4, pick 120 · expected 10 · a year later 107, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #120	22.6	10	107	—	—	122	—	Open
5.05	Tahj Brooks RBNFL round 6, pick 193 · expected 9 · a year later 9, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #193	23.0	9	9	—	—	4	—	Falling
5.06	Oronde Gadsden TENFL round 5, pick 165 · expected 9 · a year later 1,149, two years —, three years —	Round 5, #165	21.8	9	1,149	—	—	439	—	Open
5.07	Savion Williams WRNFL round 3, pick 87 · expected 8 · a year later 9, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #87	23.4	8	9	—	—	10	—	Falling
5.08	Tai Felton WRNFL round 3, pick 102 · expected 7 · a year later 10, two years —, three years —	Round 3, #102	22.1	7	10	—	—	3	—	Falling
5.09	KeAndre Lambert-Smith WRNFL round 5, pick 158 · expected 6 · a year later 3, two years —, three years —	Round 5, #158	23.5	6	3	—	—	4	—	Open
5.10	Konata Mumpfield WRNFL round 7, pick 242 · expected 5 · a year later 11, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #242	22.5	5	11	—	—	35	—	Open
5.11	Luke Lachey TENFL round 7, pick 255 · expected 4 · a year later 2, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #255	23.8	4	2	—	—	0	—	Falling
5.12	Kaden Prather WRNFL round 7, pick 240 · expected 4 · a year later 0, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #240	22.6	4	0	—	—	0	—	Falling
6.01	Thomas Fidone TENFL round 7, pick 219 · expected 4 · a year later 3, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #219	22.6	4	3	—	—	2	—	Open
6.02	Dominic Lovett WRNFL round 7, pick 244 · expected 3 · a year later 1, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #244	22.5	3	1	—	—	1	—	Open
6.03	Gavin Bartholomew TENFL round 6, pick 202 · expected 2 · a year later 2, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #202	22.0	2	2	—	—	0	—	Falling
6.04	Caleb Lohner TENFL round 7, pick 241 · expected 2 · a year later 0, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #241	23.6	2	0	—	—	0	—	Falling
6.05	Kyle McCord QBNFL round 6, pick 181 · expected 2 · a year later 2, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #181	22.6	2	2	—	—	2	—	Open
6.06	Kyle Monangai RBNFL round 7, pick 233 · expected 2 · a year later 625, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #233	22.9	2	625	—	—	771	—	Open
6.07	Riley Leonard QBNFL round 6, pick 189 · expected 2 · a year later 5, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #189	22.6	2	5	—	—	3	—	Open
6.08	Jordan Watkins WRNFL round 4, pick 138 · expected 2 · a year later 3, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #138	23.2	2	3	—	—	5	—	Open
6.09	Mitchell Evans TENFL round 5, pick 163 · expected 2 · a year later 4, two years —, three years —	Round 5, #163	22.1	2	4	—	—	3	—	Open
6.10	Ricky White WRNFL round 7, pick 238 · expected 2 · a year later 2, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #238	23.2	2	2	—	—	0	—	Falling
6.11	LaJohntay Wester WRNFL round 6, pick 203 · expected 2 · a year later 0, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #203	23.1	2	0	—	—	0	—	Falling
6.12	Jimmy Horn WRNFL round 6, pick 208 · expected 2 · a year later 3, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #208	22.6	2	3	—	—	2	—	Open
7.01	Moliki Matavao TENFL round 7, pick 248 · expected 2 · a year later 1, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #248	22.1	2	1	—	—	1	—	Open
7.02	LeQuint Allen RBNFL round 7, pick 236 · expected 2 · a year later 6, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #236	20.7	2	6	—	—	4	—	Open
7.03	Kurtis Rourke QBNFL round 7, pick 227 · expected 2 · a year later 2, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #227	24.5	2	2	—	—	2	—	Open
7.04	Phil Mafah RBNFL round 7, pick 239 · expected 1 · a year later 8, two years —, three years —	Round 7, #239	22.5	1	8	—	—	2	—	Open
7.05	Jaylin Lane WRNFL round 4, pick 128 · expected 1 · a year later 7, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #128	23.0	1	7	—	—	4	—	Falling
7.06	Arian Smith WRNFL round 4, pick 110 · expected 1 · a year later 3, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #110	23.5	1	3	—	—	1	—	Open
7.07	Kalel Mullings RBNFL round 6, pick 188 · expected 1 · a year later 2, two years —, three years —	Round 6, #188	22.6	1	2	—	—	0	—	Falling
7.08	Chimere Dike WRNFL round 4, pick 103 · expected 1 · a year later 82, two years —, three years —	Round 4, #103	23.4	1	82	—	—	41	—	Open

About these numbers

We compare what the market expected from each rookie on rookie-draft day with how he did over his first three NFL seasons. A hit is a top-end season, a bust never had one and lost most of his value, and everyone else is in between. Only classes whose three seasons are over count in the headline numbers. The full method is in our public notes. A dash in a later-year column means that date has not arrived yet, and 0 means he is no longer valued.

Values come from the market, Sleeper season totals and nflverse draft capital.