Class 2024 · still playing out · 2026-11-11

The 2024 dynasty rookie class: expectation vs reality

This class is still playing out. So far, 1 in 8 of its rookies have become a hit. Bo Nix (QB) is the biggest riser.

Class 2024 means the players picked in the 2024 NFL draft. Hits and busts count their 2024-2026 seasons, and only 2024-2025 are finished so far, so these are so-far numbers. "Two years later" means value in 2026, which is still to come, so that column fills in later.

So what: out of every 10 2024 rookies, 1 have hit so far and 6 look like busts so far; Bo Nix is the biggest riser.

Superflex1QB

Superflex

Hits, in-betweens and busts, by position

Grouped by position, all picks in the class together. Busts so far: no top season yet and value already down a lot.

Class 2024

All
- 1 hit
- 3 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
RB
- 1 hit
- 3 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
WR
- 1 hit
- 3 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

By dynasty rookie-draft round

Grouped by dynasty rookie-draft round: where he went in a 12-team fantasy rookie draft. This is not where he went in the real NFL draft.

Rookie-draft round 1

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 2

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 3

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 4 and later

All
- 0 hit
- 3 in between
- 7 bust
out of every 10 rookies

Hit: a top-24 RB or WR season, or a top-12 QB or TE season, in his first three years.

Bust: never a top-36 season, and worth under a quarter of his draft-day value three years in.

In between: everyone else.

Every 2024 rookie: value now vs his slot expectation (Superflex)

● hit◆ bust● otherDots on the floor: no longer valued (value 0).

So what: Bo Nix (2.02) is now worth 4.9× his slot; Drake Maye (1.06) is now worth 2.2× his slot; Bucky Irving (3.08) is now worth +2,909 points over his slot; 37 of 75 are worth less than their slot predicted, and 15 are no longer listed.

Biggest overperformers

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Bo Nix QBRookie slot 2.02 · NFL round 1, pick 12 · expected 1,025	2.02	Round 1, #12	1,025	4,982	+3,957	—
Drake Maye QBRookie slot 1.06 · NFL round 1, pick 3 · expected 3,214	1.06	Round 1, #3	3,214	6,924	+3,710	—
Bucky Irving RBRookie slot 3.08 · NFL round 4, pick 125 · expected 97	3.08	Round 4, #125	97	3,006	+2,909	—
Jayden Daniels QBRookie slot 1.03 · NFL round 1, pick 2 · expected 4,686	1.03	Round 1, #2	4,686	7,481	+2,795	—
Brock Bowers TERookie slot 1.07 · NFL round 1, pick 13 · expected 3,125	1.07	Round 1, #13	3,125	5,550	+2,425	—
Malik Nabers WRRookie slot 1.04 · NFL round 1, pick 6 · expected 4,976	1.04	Round 1, #6	4,976	7,104	+2,128	—
Ladd McConkey WRRookie slot 1.12 · NFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 1,623	1.12	Round 2, #34	1,623	2,902	+1,279	—
Michael Penix QBRookie slot 2.04 · NFL round 1, pick 8 · expected 700	2.04	Round 1, #8	700	1,147	+447	—
Blake Corum RBRookie slot 2.08 · NFL round 3, pick 83 · expected 363	2.08	Round 3, #83	363	700	+337	—
Braelon Allen RBRookie slot 4.02 · NFL round 4, pick 134 · expected 50	4.02	Round 4, #134	50	308	+258	—

Steepest falls so far

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Jonathon Brooks RBRookie slot 1.09 · NFL round 2, pick 46 · expected 2,036	1.09	Round 2, #46	2,036	165	−1,871	—
Keon Coleman WRRookie slot 2.01 · NFL round 2, pick 33 · expected 1,620	2.01	Round 2, #33	1,620	127	−1,493	—
Trey Benson RBRookie slot 2.03 · NFL round 3, pick 66 · expected 889	2.03	Round 3, #66	889	29	−860	—
Xavier Legette WRRookie slot 2.06 · NFL round 1, pick 32 · expected 529	2.06	Round 1, #32	529	17	−512	—
Ja'Lynn Polk WRRookie slot 2.09 · NFL round 2, pick 37 · expected 333	2.09	Round 2, #37	333	0	−333	—
Ben Sinnott TERookie slot 2.10 · NFL round 2, pick 53 · expected 312	2.10	Round 2, #53	312	20	−292	—
Roman Wilson WRRookie slot 2.11 · NFL round 3, pick 84 · expected 259	2.11	Round 3, #84	259	51	−208	—
Jaylen Wright RBRookie slot 3.01 · NFL round 4, pick 120 · expected 234	3.01	Round 4, #120	234	37	−197	—
Jermaine Burton WRRookie slot 3.02 · NFL round 3, pick 80 · expected 231	3.02	Round 3, #80	231	1	−230	—
MarShawn Lloyd RBRookie slot 3.03 · NFL round 3, pick 88 · expected 182	3.03	Round 3, #88	182	74	−108	—

So what: About half of the 2024 rookies busted; the costliest by slot is Jonathon Brooks at 1.09.

The whole class

Rookie-draft slot	Player	NFL draft pick	Age	Expected	+1y	+2y	+3y	Now	Best (PPR)	Result
1.01	Caleb Williams QBNFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 9,214 · a year later 7,768, two years 8,778, three years —	Round 1, #1	22.4	9,214	7,768	8,778	—	9,331	—	Hit
1.02	Marvin Harrison WRNFL round 1, pick 4 · expected 6,462 · a year later 6,272, two years 4,246, three years —	Round 1, #4	21.7	6,462	6,272	4,246	—	1,191	—	Open
1.03	Jayden Daniels QBNFL round 1, pick 2 · expected 4,686 · a year later 8,655, two years 8,355, three years —	Round 1, #2	23.4	4,686	8,655	8,355	—	7,481	—	Hit
1.04	Malik Nabers WRNFL round 1, pick 6 · expected 4,976 · a year later 7,411, two years 6,794, three years —	Round 1, #6	20.8	4,976	7,411	6,794	—	7,104	—	Hit
1.05	Rome Odunze WRNFL round 1, pick 9 · expected 4,344 · a year later 3,671, two years 3,714, three years —	Round 1, #9	21.9	4,344	3,671	3,714	—	2,808	—	Open
1.06	Drake Maye QBNFL round 1, pick 3 · expected 3,214 · a year later 5,473, two years 7,071, three years —	Round 1, #3	21.7	3,214	5,473	7,071	—	6,924	—	Hit
1.07	Brock Bowers TENFL round 1, pick 13 · expected 3,125 · a year later 4,971, two years 4,765, three years —	Round 1, #13	21.4	3,125	4,971	4,765	—	5,550	—	Hit
1.08	J.J. McCarthy QBNFL round 1, pick 10 · expected 2,729 · a year later 3,380, two years 573, three years —	Round 1, #10	21.3	2,729	3,380	573	—	523	—	Open
1.09	Jonathon Brooks RBNFL round 2, pick 46 · expected 2,036 · a year later 111, two years 165, three years —	Round 2, #46	20.8	2,036	111	165	—	165	—	Falling
1.10	Xavier Worthy WRNFL round 1, pick 28 · expected 2,114 · a year later 2,337, two years 892, three years —	Round 1, #28	21.0	2,114	2,337	892	—	591	—	Open
1.11	Brian Thomas WRNFL round 1, pick 23 · expected 1,594 · a year later 7,137, two years 2,332, three years —	Round 1, #23	21.6	1,594	7,137	2,332	—	1,257	—	Hit
1.12	Ladd McConkey WRNFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 1,623 · a year later 5,295, two years 4,004, three years —	Round 2, #34	22.5	1,623	5,295	4,004	—	2,902	—	Hit
2.01	Keon Coleman WRNFL round 2, pick 33 · expected 1,620 · a year later 603, two years 70, three years —	Round 2, #33	20.9	1,620	603	70	—	127	—	Falling
2.02	Bo Nix QBNFL round 1, pick 12 · expected 1,025 · a year later 6,890, two years 6,512, three years —	Round 1, #12	24.2	1,025	6,890	6,512	—	4,982	—	Hit
2.03	Trey Benson RBNFL round 3, pick 66 · expected 889 · a year later 355, two years 63, three years —	Round 3, #66	21.8	889	355	63	—	29	—	Falling
2.04	Michael Penix QBNFL round 1, pick 8 · expected 700 · a year later 2,456, two years 595, three years —	Round 1, #8	24.0	700	2,456	595	—	1,147	—	Open
2.05	Ricky Pearsall WRNFL round 1, pick 31 · expected 555 · a year later 978, two years 1,044, three years —	Round 1, #31	23.6	555	978	1,044	—	224	—	Open
2.06	Xavier Legette WRNFL round 1, pick 32 · expected 529 · a year later 237, two years 44, three years —	Round 1, #32	23.2	529	237	44	—	17	—	Falling
2.07	Adonai Mitchell WRNFL round 2, pick 52 · expected 492 · a year later 171, two years 125, three years —	Round 2, #52	21.6	492	171	125	—	328	—	Open
2.08	Blake Corum RBNFL round 3, pick 83 · expected 363 · a year later 182, two years 388, three years —	Round 3, #83	23.4	363	182	388	—	700	—	Open
2.09	Ja'Lynn Polk WRNFL round 2, pick 37 · expected 333 · a year later 43, two years 11, three years —	Round 2, #37	22.0	333	43	11	—	0	—	Falling
2.10	Ben Sinnott TENFL round 2, pick 53 · expected 312 · a year later 95, two years 28, three years —	Round 2, #53	21.9	312	95	28	—	20	—	Falling
2.11	Roman Wilson WRNFL round 3, pick 84 · expected 259 · a year later 69, two years 19, three years —	Round 3, #84	22.9	259	69	19	—	51	—	Falling
2.12	Troy Franklin WRNFL round 4, pick 102 · expected 245 · a year later 81, two years 152, three years —	Round 4, #102	21.2	245	81	152	—	80	—	Open
3.01	Jaylen Wright RBNFL round 4, pick 120 · expected 234 · a year later 126, two years 45, three years —	Round 4, #120	21.1	234	126	45	—	37	—	Falling
3.02	Jermaine Burton WRNFL round 3, pick 80 · expected 231 · a year later 37, two years 8, three years —	Round 3, #80	22.8	231	37	8	—	1	—	Falling
3.03	MarShawn Lloyd RBNFL round 3, pick 88 · expected 182 · a year later 89, two years 21, three years —	Round 3, #88	23.3	182	89	21	—	74	—	Falling
3.04	Ja'Tavion Sanders TENFL round 4, pick 101 · expected 164 · a year later 142, two years 23, three years —	Round 4, #101	21.1	164	142	23	—	10	—	Open
3.05	Malachi Corley WRNFL round 3, pick 65 · expected 125 · a year later 22, two years 3, three years —	Round 3, #65	22.1	125	22	3	—	1	—	Falling
3.06	Javon Baker WRNFL round 4, pick 110 · expected 123 · a year later 32, two years 7, three years —	Round 4, #110	22.2	123	32	7	—	1	—	Falling
3.07	Jalen McMillan WRNFL round 3, pick 92 · expected 116 · a year later 523, two years 224, three years —	Round 3, #92	22.4	116	523	224	—	121	—	Open
3.08	Bucky Irving RBNFL round 4, pick 125 · expected 97 · a year later 4,440, two years 2,326, three years —	Round 4, #125	21.7	97	4,440	2,326	—	3,006	—	Hit
3.09	Ray Davis RBNFL round 4, pick 128 · expected 87 · a year later 182, two years 49, three years —	Round 4, #128	24.5	87	182	49	—	35	—	Falling
3.10	Kimani Vidal RBNFL round 6, pick 181 · expected 85 · a year later 24, two years 61, three years —	Round 6, #181	22.7	85	24	61	—	58	—	Open
3.11	Luke McCaffrey WRNFL round 3, pick 100 · expected 76 · a year later 39, two years 13, three years —	Round 3, #100	23.1	76	39	13	—	9	—	Falling
3.12	Spencer Rattler QBNFL round 5, pick 150 · expected 63 · a year later 14, two years 10, three years —	Round 5, #150	23.6	63	14	10	—	6	—	Open
4.01	Audric Estime RBNFL round 5, pick 147 · expected 64 · a year later 70, two years 10, three years —	Round 5, #147	20.6	64	70	10	—	8	—	Falling
4.02	Braelon Allen RBNFL round 4, pick 134 · expected 50 · a year later 130, two years 75, three years —	Round 4, #134	20.3	50	130	75	—	308	—	Open
4.03	Theo Johnson TENFL round 4, pick 107 · expected 46 · a year later 104, two years 89, three years —	Round 4, #107	23.2	46	104	89	—	39	—	Open
4.04	Devontez Walker WRNFL round 4, pick 113 · expected 41 · a year later 12, two years 6, three years —	Round 4, #113	22.9	41	12	6	—	11	—	Falling
4.05	Will Shipley RBNFL round 4, pick 127 · expected 38 · a year later 29, two years 18, three years —	Round 4, #127	21.7	38	29	18	—	12	—	Falling
4.06	Brenden Rice WRNFL round 7, pick 225 · expected 32 · a year later 4, two years 1, three years —	Round 7, #225	22.1	32	4	1	—	0	—	Falling
4.07	Tyrone Tracy RBNFL round 5, pick 166 · expected 25 · a year later 898, two years 223, three years —	Round 5, #166	24.4	25	898	223	—	106	—	Open
4.08	Isaac Guerendo RBNFL round 4, pick 129 · expected 21 · a year later 136, two years 20, three years —	Round 4, #129	23.8	21	136	20	—	13	—	Falling
4.09	Erick All TENFL round 4, pick 115 · expected 20 · a year later 19, two years 9, three years —	Round 4, #115	23.6	20	19	9	—	18	—	Open
4.10	Malik Washington WRNFL round 6, pick 184 · expected 17 · a year later 53, two years 55, three years —	Round 6, #184	23.3	17	53	55	—	172	—	Open
4.11	Jordan Travis QBNFL round 5, pick 171 · expected 14 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years —	Round 5, #171	24.0	14	0	0	—	0	—	Falling
4.12	Cade Stover TENFL round 4, pick 123 · expected 15 · a year later 14, two years 6, three years —	Round 4, #123	23.9	15	14	6	—	3	—	Falling
5.01	Dylan Laube RBNFL round 6, pick 208 · expected 13 · a year later 7, two years 2, three years —	Round 6, #208	24.4	13	7	2	—	3	—	Falling
5.02	Rasheen Ali RBNFL round 5, pick 165 · expected 10 · a year later 6, two years 3, three years —	Round 5, #165	23.2	10	6	3	—	7	—	Falling
5.03	Jacob Cowing WRNFL round 4, pick 135 · expected 10 · a year later 9, two years 4, three years —	Round 4, #135	23.2	10	9	4	—	2	—	Falling
5.04	Michael Pratt QBNFL round 7, pick 245 · expected 9 · a year later 2, two years 0, three years —	Round 7, #245	22.6	9	2	0	—	0	—	Falling
5.05	Jha'Quan Jackson WRNFL round 6, pick 182 · expected 8 · a year later 1, two years 0, three years —	Round 6, #182	24.0	8	1	0	—	0	—	Falling
5.06	Keilan Robinson RBNFL round 5, pick 167 · expected 7 · a year later 2, two years 1, three years —	Round 5, #167	24.2	7	2	1	—	1	—	Falling
5.07	Devin Culp TENFL round 7, pick 246 · expected 7 · a year later 2, two years 2, three years —	Round 7, #246	24.2	7	2	2	—	0	—	Falling
5.08	Anthony Gould WRNFL round 5, pick 142 · expected 7 · a year later 2, two years 0, three years —	Round 5, #142	23.1	7	2	0	—	0	—	Falling
5.09	Tejhaun Palmer WRNFL round 6, pick 191 · expected 5 · a year later 1, two years 1, three years —	Round 6, #191	23.9	5	1	1	—	0	—	Falling
5.10	Devin Leary QBNFL round 6, pick 218 · expected 4 · a year later 2, two years 0, three years —	Round 6, #218	24.6	4	2	0	—	0	—	Falling
5.11	Jordan Whittington WRNFL round 6, pick 213 · expected 4 · a year later 39, two years 9, three years —	Round 6, #213	23.6	4	39	9	—	12	—	Open
5.12	Bub Means WRNFL round 5, pick 170 · expected 4 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years —	Round 5, #170	23.3	4	3	2	—	0	—	Falling
6.01	Ryan Flournoy WRNFL round 6, pick 216 · expected 3 · a year later 2, two years 37, three years —	Round 6, #216	24.5	3	2	37	—	131	—	Open
6.02	Tahj Washington WRNFL round 7, pick 241 · expected 3 · a year later 1, two years 2, three years —	Round 7, #241	22.9	3	1	2	—	0	—	Falling
6.03	Tip Reiman TENFL round 3, pick 82 · expected 3 · a year later 2, two years 2, three years —	Round 3, #82	22.6	3	2	2	—	1	—	Falling
6.04	Jawhar Jordan RBNFL round 6, pick 205 · expected 2 · a year later 2, two years 2, three years —	Round 6, #205	24.7	2	2	2	—	2	—	Open
6.05	Tanner McLachlan TENFL round 6, pick 194 · expected 2 · a year later 2, two years 0, three years —	Round 6, #194	25.1	2	2	0	—	0	—	Falling
6.06	Jase McClellan RBNFL round 6, pick 186 · expected 2 · a year later 2, two years 1, three years —	Round 6, #186	21.8	2	2	1	—	0	—	Falling
6.07	Ainias Smith WRNFL round 5, pick 152 · expected 2 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years —	Round 5, #152	22.9	2	3	2	—	1	—	Falling
6.08	Cornelius Johnson WRNFL round 7, pick 253 · expected 2 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years —	Round 7, #253	23.4	2	0	0	—	0	—	Falling
6.09	Isaiah Davis RBNFL round 5, pick 173 · expected 1 · a year later 23, two years 23, three years —	Round 5, #173	22.2	1	23	23	—	16	—	Open
6.10	AJ Barner TENFL round 4, pick 121 · expected 1 · a year later 12, two years 236, three years —	Round 4, #121	22.0	1	12	236	—	182	—	Open
6.11	Jared Wiley TENFL round 4, pick 131 · expected 1 · a year later 4, two years 4, three years —	Round 4, #131	23.5	1	4	4	—	3	—	Open
6.12	Jamari Thrash WRNFL round 5, pick 156 · expected 1 · a year later 3, two years 3, three years —	Round 5, #156	23.4	1	3	3	—	1	—	Falling
7.01	Joe Milton QBNFL round 6, pick 193 · expected 1 · a year later 55, two years 54, three years —	Round 6, #193	24.1	1	55	54	—	3	—	Open
7.02	Jaheim Bell TENFL round 7, pick 231 · expected 1 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years —	Round 7, #231	22.9	1	3	2	—	0	—	Falling
7.03	Johnny Wilson WRNFL round 6, pick 185 · expected 1 · a year later 7, two years 2, three years —	Round 6, #185	23.1	1	7	2	—	1	—	Falling

1QB

Hits, in-betweens and busts, by position

Grouped by position, all picks in the class together. Busts so far: no top season yet and value already down a lot.

Class 2024

All
- 1 hit
- 4 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
RB
- 0 hit
- 4 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
WR
- 1 hit
- 3 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

By dynasty rookie-draft round

Grouped by dynasty rookie-draft round: where he went in a 12-team fantasy rookie draft. This is not where he went in the real NFL draft.

Rookie-draft round 1

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 2

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 3

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 4 and later

All
- 0 hit
- 3 in between
- 7 bust
out of every 10 rookies

Hit: a top-24 RB or WR season, or a top-12 QB or TE season, in his first three years.

Bust: never a top-36 season, and worth under a quarter of his draft-day value three years in.

In between: everyone else.

Every 2024 rookie: value now vs his slot expectation (1QB)

● hit◆ bust● otherDots on the floor: no longer valued (value 0).

So what: Drake Maye (2.05) is now worth 10×+ his slot; Brock Bowers (1.05) is now worth 2.5× his slot; Bucky Irving (3.08) is now worth +3,266 points over his slot; 35 of 75 are worth less than their slot predicted, and 15 are no longer listed.

Biggest overperformers

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Drake Maye QBRookie slot 2.05 · NFL round 1, pick 3 · expected 417	2.05	Round 1, #3	417	5,290	+4,873	—
Brock Bowers TERookie slot 1.05 · NFL round 1, pick 13 · expected 2,288	1.05	Round 1, #13	2,288	5,663	+3,375	—
Bucky Irving RBRookie slot 3.08 · NFL round 4, pick 125 · expected 72	3.08	Round 4, #125	72	3,338	+3,266	—
Malik Nabers WRRookie slot 1.02 · NFL round 1, pick 6 · expected 5,131	1.02	Round 1, #6	5,131	7,368	+2,237	—
Jayden Daniels QBRookie slot 1.09 · NFL round 1, pick 2 · expected 1,506	1.09	Round 1, #2	1,506	3,353	+1,847	—
Ladd McConkey WRRookie slot 1.08 · NFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 1,517	1.08	Round 2, #34	1,517	3,345	+1,828	—
Caleb Williams QBRookie slot 1.04 · NFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 2,519	1.04	Round 1, #1	2,519	3,852	+1,333	—
Bo Nix QBRookie slot 2.12 · NFL round 1, pick 12 · expected 230	2.12	Round 1, #12	230	1,215	+985	—
Braelon Allen RBRookie slot 3.11 · NFL round 4, pick 134 · expected 55	3.11	Round 4, #134	55	294	+239	—
AJ Barner TERookie slot 6.12 · NFL round 4, pick 121 · expected 1	6.12	Round 4, #121	1	164	+163	—

Steepest falls so far

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Jonathon Brooks RBRookie slot 1.07 · NFL round 2, pick 46 · expected 2,053	1.07	Round 2, #46	2,053	518	−1,535	—
Keon Coleman WRRookie slot 1.11 · NFL round 2, pick 33 · expected 1,010	1.11	Round 2, #33	1,010	141	−869	—
Trey Benson RBRookie slot 1.12 · NFL round 3, pick 66 · expected 970	1.12	Round 3, #66	970	15	−955	—
Xavier Legette WRRookie slot 2.04 · NFL round 1, pick 32 · expected 484	2.04	Round 1, #32	484	7	−477	—
Jaylen Wright RBRookie slot 2.08 · NFL round 4, pick 120 · expected 350	2.08	Round 4, #120	350	31	−319	—
Ja'Lynn Polk WRRookie slot 2.09 · NFL round 2, pick 37 · expected 289	2.09	Round 2, #37	289	0	−289	—
MarShawn Lloyd RBRookie slot 2.10 · NFL round 3, pick 88 · expected 249	2.10	Round 3, #88	249	56	−193	—
Roman Wilson WRRookie slot 2.11 · NFL round 3, pick 84 · expected 230	2.11	Round 3, #84	230	23	−207	—
Ben Sinnott TERookie slot 3.01 · NFL round 2, pick 53 · expected 178	3.01	Round 2, #53	178	7	−171	—
Jermaine Burton WRRookie slot 3.02 · NFL round 3, pick 80 · expected 162	3.02	Round 3, #80	162	1	−161	—

So what: About half of the 2024 rookies busted; the costliest by slot is Jonathon Brooks at 1.07.

The whole class

Rookie-draft slot	Player	NFL draft pick	Age	Expected	+1y	+2y	+3y	Now	Best (PPR)	Result
1.01	Marvin Harrison WRNFL round 1, pick 4 · expected 8,629 · a year later 6,491, two years 4,322, three years —	Round 1, #4	21.7	8,629	6,491	4,322	—	1,313	—	Open
1.02	Malik Nabers WRNFL round 1, pick 6 · expected 5,131 · a year later 7,796, two years 7,455, three years —	Round 1, #6	20.8	5,131	7,796	7,455	—	7,368	—	Hit
1.03	Rome Odunze WRNFL round 1, pick 9 · expected 4,073 · a year later 4,075, two years 4,172, three years —	Round 1, #9	21.9	4,073	4,075	4,172	—	3,118	—	Open
1.04	Caleb Williams QBNFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 2,519 · a year later 2,352, two years 2,852, three years —	Round 1, #1	22.4	2,519	2,352	2,852	—	3,852	—	Hit
1.05	Brock Bowers TENFL round 1, pick 13 · expected 2,288 · a year later 5,340, two years 5,119, three years —	Round 1, #13	21.4	2,288	5,340	5,119	—	5,663	—	Hit
1.06	Xavier Worthy WRNFL round 1, pick 28 · expected 2,180 · a year later 2,589, two years 974, three years —	Round 1, #28	21.0	2,180	2,589	974	—	595	—	Open
1.07	Jonathon Brooks RBNFL round 2, pick 46 · expected 2,053 · a year later 396, two years 533, three years —	Round 2, #46	20.8	2,053	396	533	—	518	—	Falling
1.08	Ladd McConkey WRNFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 1,517 · a year later 5,950, two years 4,467, three years —	Round 2, #34	22.5	1,517	5,950	4,467	—	3,345	—	Hit
1.09	Jayden Daniels QBNFL round 1, pick 2 · expected 1,506 · a year later 5,024, two years 3,981, three years —	Round 1, #2	23.4	1,506	5,024	3,981	—	3,353	—	Hit
1.10	Brian Thomas WRNFL round 1, pick 23 · expected 1,476 · a year later 7,668, two years 2,518, three years —	Round 1, #23	21.6	1,476	7,668	2,518	—	1,419	—	Hit
1.11	Keon Coleman WRNFL round 2, pick 33 · expected 1,010 · a year later 652, two years 62, three years —	Round 2, #33	20.9	1,010	652	62	—	141	—	Falling
1.12	Trey Benson RBNFL round 3, pick 66 · expected 970 · a year later 351, two years 46, three years —	Round 3, #66	21.8	970	351	46	—	15	—	Falling
2.01	Blake Corum RBNFL round 3, pick 83 · expected 789 · a year later 167, two years 396, three years —	Round 3, #83	23.4	789	167	396	—	775	—	Open
2.02	Adonai Mitchell WRNFL round 2, pick 52 · expected 617 · a year later 156, two years 125, three years —	Round 2, #52	21.6	617	156	125	—	348	—	Open
2.03	J.J. McCarthy QBNFL round 1, pick 10 · expected 573 · a year later 652, two years 110, three years —	Round 1, #10	21.3	573	652	110	—	118	—	Open
2.04	Xavier Legette WRNFL round 1, pick 32 · expected 484 · a year later 228, two years 38, three years —	Round 1, #32	23.2	484	228	38	—	7	—	Falling
2.05	Drake Maye QBNFL round 1, pick 3 · expected 417 · a year later 1,846, two years 4,816, three years —	Round 1, #3	21.7	417	1,846	4,816	—	5,290	—	Hit
2.06	Ricky Pearsall WRNFL round 1, pick 31 · expected 413 · a year later 1,083, two years 1,198, three years —	Round 1, #31	23.6	413	1,083	1,198	—	281	—	Open
2.07	Troy Franklin WRNFL round 4, pick 102 · expected 388 · a year later 70, two years 153, three years —	Round 4, #102	21.2	388	70	153	—	69	—	Open
2.08	Jaylen Wright RBNFL round 4, pick 120 · expected 350 · a year later 113, two years 34, three years —	Round 4, #120	21.1	350	113	34	—	31	—	Falling
2.09	Ja'Lynn Polk WRNFL round 2, pick 37 · expected 289 · a year later 35, two years 6, three years —	Round 2, #37	22.0	289	35	6	—	0	—	Falling
2.10	MarShawn Lloyd RBNFL round 3, pick 88 · expected 249 · a year later 79, two years 12, three years —	Round 3, #88	23.3	249	79	12	—	56	—	Falling
2.11	Roman Wilson WRNFL round 3, pick 84 · expected 230 · a year later 59, two years 16, three years —	Round 3, #84	22.9	230	59	16	—	23	—	Falling
2.12	Bo Nix QBNFL round 1, pick 12 · expected 230 · a year later 1,841, two years 1,573, three years —	Round 1, #12	24.2	230	1,841	1,573	—	1,215	—	Hit
3.01	Ben Sinnott TENFL round 2, pick 53 · expected 178 · a year later 79, two years 18, three years —	Round 2, #53	21.9	178	79	18	—	7	—	Falling
3.02	Jermaine Burton WRNFL round 3, pick 80 · expected 162 · a year later 25, two years 6, three years —	Round 3, #80	22.8	162	25	6	—	1	—	Falling
3.03	Michael Penix QBNFL round 1, pick 8 · expected 118 · a year later 462, two years 120, three years —	Round 1, #8	24.0	118	462	120	—	265	—	Open
3.04	Malachi Corley WRNFL round 3, pick 65 · expected 108 · a year later 14, two years 3, three years —	Round 3, #65	22.1	108	14	3	—	1	—	Falling
3.05	Ja'Tavion Sanders TENFL round 4, pick 101 · expected 102 · a year later 131, two years 16, three years —	Round 4, #101	21.1	102	131	16	—	4	—	Open
3.06	Luke McCaffrey WRNFL round 3, pick 100 · expected 83 · a year later 28, two years 8, three years —	Round 3, #100	23.1	83	28	8	—	4	—	Falling
3.07	Ray Davis RBNFL round 4, pick 128 · expected 77 · a year later 171, two years 38, three years —	Round 4, #128	24.5	77	171	38	—	22	—	Falling
3.08	Bucky Irving RBNFL round 4, pick 125 · expected 72 · a year later 5,083, two years 2,494, three years —	Round 4, #125	21.7	72	5,083	2,494	—	3,338	—	Hit
3.09	Javon Baker WRNFL round 4, pick 110 · expected 70 · a year later 23, two years 5, three years —	Round 4, #110	22.2	70	23	5	—	1	—	Falling
3.10	Kimani Vidal RBNFL round 6, pick 181 · expected 63 · a year later 15, two years 49, three years —	Round 6, #181	22.7	63	15	49	—	57	—	Open
3.11	Braelon Allen RBNFL round 4, pick 134 · expected 55 · a year later 115, two years 64, three years —	Round 4, #134	20.3	55	115	64	—	294	—	Open
3.12	Jalen McMillan WRNFL round 3, pick 92 · expected 50 · a year later 558, two years 225, three years —	Round 3, #92	22.4	50	558	225	—	111	—	Open
4.01	Audric Estime RBNFL round 5, pick 147 · expected 41 · a year later 56, two years 5, three years —	Round 5, #147	20.6	41	56	5	—	5	—	Falling
4.02	Devontez Walker WRNFL round 4, pick 113 · expected 36 · a year later 5, two years 3, three years —	Round 4, #113	22.9	36	5	3	—	8	—	Falling
4.03	Brenden Rice WRNFL round 7, pick 225 · expected 37 · a year later 4, two years 1, three years —	Round 7, #225	22.1	37	4	1	—	0	—	Falling
4.04	Will Shipley RBNFL round 4, pick 127 · expected 31 · a year later 16, two years 9, three years —	Round 4, #127	21.7	31	16	9	—	5	—	Falling
4.05	Isaac Guerendo RBNFL round 4, pick 129 · expected 29 · a year later 122, two years 10, three years —	Round 4, #129	23.8	29	122	10	—	7	—	Falling
4.06	Tyrone Tracy RBNFL round 5, pick 166 · expected 23 · a year later 999, two years 222, three years —	Round 5, #166	24.4	23	999	222	—	112	—	Open
4.07	Theo Johnson TENFL round 4, pick 107 · expected 15 · a year later 91, two years 78, three years —	Round 4, #107	23.2	15	91	78	—	24	—	Open
4.08	Spencer Rattler QBNFL round 5, pick 150 · expected 14 · a year later 6, two years 8, three years —	Round 5, #150	23.6	14	6	8	—	9	—	Open
4.09	Erick All TENFL round 4, pick 115 · expected 12 · a year later 11, two years 3, three years —	Round 4, #115	23.6	12	11	3	—	5	—	Falling
4.10	Dylan Laube RBNFL round 6, pick 208 · expected 10 · a year later 4, two years 2, three years —	Round 6, #208	24.4	10	4	2	—	3	—	Falling
4.11	Malik Washington WRNFL round 6, pick 184 · expected 10 · a year later 40, two years 48, three years —	Round 6, #184	23.3	10	40	48	—	141	—	Open
4.12	Jordan Whittington WRNFL round 6, pick 213 · expected 8 · a year later 30, two years 5, three years —	Round 6, #213	23.6	8	30	5	—	5	—	Open
5.01	Jacob Cowing WRNFL round 4, pick 135 · expected 5 · a year later 4, two years 3, three years —	Round 4, #135	23.2	5	4	3	—	2	—	Falling
5.02	Michael Pratt QBNFL round 7, pick 245 · expected 5 · a year later 3, two years 0, three years —	Round 7, #245	22.6	5	3	0	—	0	—	Falling
5.03	Devin Culp TENFL round 7, pick 246 · expected 4 · a year later 1, two years 2, three years —	Round 7, #246	24.2	4	1	2	—	0	—	Falling
5.04	Jha'Quan Jackson WRNFL round 6, pick 182 · expected 4 · a year later 1, two years 0, three years —	Round 6, #182	24.0	4	1	0	—	0	—	Falling
5.05	Keilan Robinson RBNFL round 5, pick 167 · expected 4 · a year later 2, two years 1, three years —	Round 5, #167	24.2	4	2	1	—	1	—	Open
5.06	Tahj Washington WRNFL round 7, pick 241 · expected 3 · a year later 1, two years 1, three years —	Round 7, #241	22.9	3	1	1	—	0	—	Falling
5.07	Anthony Gould WRNFL round 5, pick 142 · expected 3 · a year later 2, two years 0, three years —	Round 5, #142	23.1	3	2	0	—	0	—	Falling
5.08	Devin Leary QBNFL round 6, pick 218 · expected 3 · a year later 3, two years 0, three years —	Round 6, #218	24.6	3	3	0	—	0	—	Falling
5.09	Tejhaun Palmer WRNFL round 6, pick 191 · expected 3 · a year later 1, two years 1, three years —	Round 6, #191	23.9	3	1	1	—	0	—	Falling
5.10	Tip Reiman TENFL round 3, pick 82 · expected 2 · a year later 2, two years 2, three years —	Round 3, #82	22.6	2	2	2	—	1	—	Open
5.11	Jaheim Bell TENFL round 7, pick 231 · expected 2 · a year later 2, two years 2, three years —	Round 7, #231	22.9	2	2	2	—	0	—	Falling
5.12	Tanner McLachlan TENFL round 6, pick 194 · expected 2 · a year later 2, two years 0, three years —	Round 6, #194	25.1	2	2	0	—	0	—	Falling
6.01	Ryan Flournoy WRNFL round 6, pick 216 · expected 2 · a year later 2, two years 28, three years —	Round 6, #216	24.5	2	2	28	—	124	—	Open
6.02	Cornelius Johnson WRNFL round 7, pick 253 · expected 2 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years —	Round 7, #253	23.4	2	0	0	—	0	—	Falling
6.03	Joe Milton QBNFL round 6, pick 193 · expected 1 · a year later 5, two years 8, three years —	Round 6, #193	24.1	1	5	8	—	7	—	Open
6.04	Jawhar Jordan RBNFL round 6, pick 205 · expected 1 · a year later 2, two years 2, three years —	Round 6, #205	24.7	1	2	2	—	2	—	Open
6.05	Jase McClellan RBNFL round 6, pick 186 · expected 1 · a year later 1, two years 1, three years —	Round 6, #186	21.8	1	1	1	—	0	—	Falling
6.06	Rasheen Ali RBNFL round 5, pick 165 · expected 1 · a year later 3, two years 3, three years —	Round 5, #165	23.2	1	3	3	—	4	—	Falling
6.07	Jordan Travis QBNFL round 5, pick 171 · expected 1 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years —	Round 5, #171	24.0	1	0	0	—	0	—	Falling
6.08	Jared Wiley TENFL round 4, pick 131 · expected 1 · a year later 3, two years 4, three years —	Round 4, #131	23.5	1	3	4	—	2	—	Open
6.09	Cade Stover TENFL round 4, pick 123 · expected 1 · a year later 8, two years 3, three years —	Round 4, #123	23.9	1	8	3	—	2	—	Falling
6.10	Bub Means WRNFL round 5, pick 170 · expected 1 · a year later 4, two years 1, three years —	Round 5, #170	23.3	1	4	1	—	0	—	Falling
6.11	Isaiah Davis RBNFL round 5, pick 173 · expected 1 · a year later 11, two years 12, three years —	Round 5, #173	22.2	1	11	12	—	6	—	Open
6.12	AJ Barner TENFL round 4, pick 121 · expected 1 · a year later 5, two years 238, three years —	Round 4, #121	22.0	1	5	238	—	164	—	Open
7.01	Jamari Thrash WRNFL round 5, pick 156 · expected 1 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years —	Round 5, #156	23.4	1	3	2	—	1	—	Falling
7.02	Ainias Smith WRNFL round 5, pick 152 · expected 1 · a year later 3, two years 1, three years —	Round 5, #152	22.9	1	3	1	—	1	—	Falling
7.03	Johnny Wilson WRNFL round 6, pick 185 · expected 0 · a year later 5, two years 1, three years —	Round 6, #185	23.1	0	5	1	—	1	—	Falling

About these numbers

We compare what the market expected from each rookie on rookie-draft day with how he did over his first three NFL seasons. A hit is a top-end season, a bust never had one and lost most of his value, and everyone else is in between. Only classes whose three seasons are over count in the headline numbers. The full method is in our public notes. A dash in a later-year column means that date has not arrived yet, and 0 means he is no longer valued.

Values come from the market, Sleeper season totals and nflverse draft capital.