Dynasty rookies · classes 2020-2023 · updated 2026-11-11
Expectation vs reality: what dynasty rookies were worth at draft time, and what happened
We looked at every NFL-drafted QB, RB, WR and TE rookie from the 2020-2023 classes, whose first three seasons are over. Out of every 10, 2 became a hit, 3 landed in between and 5 busted. Where a rookie is picked moves those odds a lot.
Superflex
Classes counted: 2020-2023 (we have no Superflex values for 2019). Classes 2024-2026 are still playing out and are not in these numbers; each has its own page below.
So what: A round 1 rookie pick hits about 7 in 10 times. A round 4 or later pick hits about once in 20, so trade late picks for anything useful.
Hit: a top-24 RB or WR season, or a top-12 QB or TE season, in his first three years.
Bust: never a top-36 season, and worth under a quarter of his draft-day value three years in.
In between: everyone else.
All rookies, by position
All rounds
- All
- 2 hit
- 3 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- 2 hit
- 3 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- RB
- 3 hit
- 2 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- WR
- 2 hit
- 2 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- 2 hit
- 5 in between
- 3 bust
out of every 10 rookies
By dynasty rookie-draft round
Grouped by dynasty rookie-draft round: where he went in a 12-team fantasy rookie draft (picks 1-12 are round 1). This is not where he went in the real NFL draft.
Rookie-draft round 1
- All
- 7 hit
- 2 in between
- 1 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- RB
- 9 hit
- 1 in between
- 0 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- WR
- 7 hit
- 1 in between
- 2 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
Rookie-draft round 2
- All
- 2 hit
- 3 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- RB
- 2 hit
- 3 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- WR
- 2 hit
- 1 in between
- 7 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
Rookie-draft round 3
- All
- 2 hit
- 3 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- RB
- 2 hit
- 2 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- WR
- 1 hit
- 4 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
Rookie-draft round 4 and later
- All
- 0 hit
- 3 in between
- 7 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- 0 hit
- 2 in between
- 8 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- RB
- 1 hit
- 1 in between
- 8 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- WR
- 0 hit
- 3 in between
- 7 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- 1 hit
- 6 in between
- 3 bust
out of every 10 rookies
By real NFL draft pick
Grouped by real NFL draft pick: where the team actually selected him in the NFL draft. This is not his fantasy rookie-draft slot.
NFL picks 1-10
- All
- 7 hit
- 2 in between
- 1 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- RB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- WR
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
NFL picks 11-32
- All
- 6 hit
- 2 in between
- 2 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- RB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- WR
- 6 hit
- 0 in between
- 4 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
NFL round 2
- All
- 4 hit
- 3 in between
- 3 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- RB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- WR
- 1 hit
- 3 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
NFL round 3
- All
- 1 hit
- 3 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- RB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- WR
- 1 hit
- 3 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
NFL rounds 4-7
- All
- 1 hit
- 3 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- 1 hit
- 2 in between
- 7 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- RB
- 1 hit
- 2 in between
- 7 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- WR
- 1 hit
- 2 in between
- 7 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- 1 hit
- 7 in between
- 2 bust
out of every 10 rookies
Position by position
- QB
- About 1 in 6 became a hit.
- About half busted.
- RB
- About 1 in 3 became a hit.
- Best odds: round 1 picks, where 9 in 10 hit.
- About half busted.
- WR
- About 1 in 5 became a hit.
- Best odds: round 1 picks, where 7 in 10 hit.
- About 6 in 10 busted.
- TE
- About 1 in 5 became a hit.
- About 1 in 4 busted.
Profiles that beat (or trailed) where they were drafted
- WR · rounds 4-7 · age ≤21: usually worth more than where they were drafted.
Class by class
- Class 2020Final: out of 10, 3 hit, 2 in between, 5 bust
- Class 2021Final: out of 10, 2 hit, 2 in between, 6 bust
- Class 2022Final: out of 10, 2 hit, 3 in between, 5 bust
- Class 2023Final: out of 10, 2 hit, 4 in between, 4 bust
- Class 2024Still playing out: out of 10, 1 hit, 3 in between, 6 bust so far
- Class 2025Still playing out: out of 10, 1 hit, 5 in between, 4 bust so far
- Class 2026Not started yet: no season has been played.
1QB
Classes counted: 2019-2023. Classes 2024-2026 are still playing out and are not in these numbers; each has its own page below.
So what: A round 1 rookie pick hits about 7 in 10 times. A round 4 or later pick hits about once in 20, so trade late picks for anything useful.
Hit: a top-24 RB or WR season, or a top-12 QB or TE season, in his first three years.
Bust: never a top-36 season, and worth under a quarter of his draft-day value three years in.
In between: everyone else.
All rookies, by position
All rounds
- All
- 2 hit
- 3 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- 1 hit
- 5 in between
- 4 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- RB
- 3 hit
- 1 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- WR
- 2 hit
- 2 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- 2 hit
- 5 in between
- 3 bust
out of every 10 rookies
By dynasty rookie-draft round
Grouped by dynasty rookie-draft round: where he went in a 12-team fantasy rookie draft (picks 1-12 are round 1). This is not where he went in the real NFL draft.
Rookie-draft round 1
- All
- 7 hit
- 1 in between
- 2 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- RB
- 8 hit
- 1 in between
- 1 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- WR
- 6 hit
- 1 in between
- 3 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
Rookie-draft round 2
- All
- 3 hit
- 3 in between
- 4 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- RB
- 3 hit
- 4 in between
- 3 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- WR
- 2 hit
- 2 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
Rookie-draft round 3
- All
- 2 hit
- 2 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- RB
- 2 hit
- 0 in between
- 8 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- WR
- 2 hit
- 3 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
Rookie-draft round 4 and later
- All
- 0 hit
- 4 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- 1 hit
- 4 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- RB
- 0 hit
- 1 in between
- 9 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- WR
- 1 hit
- 3 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- 1 hit
- 6 in between
- 3 bust
out of every 10 rookies
By real NFL draft pick
Grouped by real NFL draft pick: where the team actually selected him in the NFL draft. This is not his fantasy rookie-draft slot.
NFL picks 1-10
- All
- 7 hit
- 3 in between
- 0 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- RB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- WR
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
NFL picks 11-32
- All
- 6 hit
- 2 in between
- 2 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- RB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- WR
- 6 hit
- 1 in between
- 3 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
NFL round 2
- All
- 4 hit
- 3 in between
- 3 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- RB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- WR
- 2 hit
- 2 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
NFL round 3
- All
- 2 hit
- 3 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
- RB
- 4 hit
- 2 in between
- 4 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- WR
- 2 hit
- 2 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- 1 hit
- 3 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
NFL rounds 4-7
- All
- 1 hit
- 3 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- QB
- 0 hit
- 4 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- RB
- 1 hit
- 1 in between
- 8 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- WR
- 1 hit
- 3 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
- TE
- 0 hit
- 7 in between
- 3 bust
out of every 10 rookies
Position by position
- QB
- About 1 in 6 became a hit.
- About 4 in 10 busted.
- RB
- About 1 in 3 became a hit.
- Best odds: round 1 picks, where 8 in 10 hit.
- About 6 in 10 busted.
- WR
- About 1 in 5 became a hit.
- Best odds: round 1 picks, where 6 in 10 hit.
- About 6 in 10 busted.
- TE
- About 1 in 5 became a hit.
- About 1 in 3 busted.
Profiles that beat (or trailed) where they were drafted
- WR · round 2 · age ≤21: usually worth more than where they were drafted.
- WR · rounds 4-7 · age ≤21: usually worth more than where they were drafted.
- RB · rounds 4-7 · age 23+: usually worth more than where they were drafted.
Class by class
- Class 2019Final: out of 10, 2 hit, 2 in between, 6 bust
- Class 2020Final: out of 10, 3 hit, 2 in between, 5 bust
- Class 2021Final: out of 10, 2 hit, 2 in between, 6 bust
- Class 2022Final: out of 10, 2 hit, 4 in between, 4 bust
- Class 2023Final: out of 10, 2 hit, 4 in between, 4 bust
- Class 2024Still playing out: out of 10, 1 hit, 4 in between, 5 bust so far
- Class 2025Still playing out: out of 10, 1 hit, 6 in between, 3 bust so far
- Class 2026Not started yet: no season has been played.
About these numbers
We compare what the market expected from each rookie on rookie-draft day with how he did over his first three NFL seasons. A hit is a top-end season, a bust never had one and lost most of his value, and everyone else is in between. Only classes whose three seasons are over count in the headline numbers. The full method is in our public notes.
Values come from the market, Sleeper season totals and nflverse draft capital.