Class 2022 · first three seasons finished · 2026-11-11

The 2022 dynasty rookie class: expectation vs reality

About 1 in 5 of this class became a hit, about the same as a typical class. James Cook (RB) is the biggest riser.

Class 2022 means the players picked in the 2022 NFL draft. Hits and busts count their 2022-2024 seasons (all three are finished). "Two years later" means value in 2024.

So what: out of every 10 2022 rookies, 2 hit and 5 busted; James Cook is the biggest riser.

Superflex1QB

Superflex

Hits, in-betweens and busts, by position

Grouped by position, all picks in the class together.

Class 2022

All
- 2 hit
- 3 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
RB
- 4 hit
- 1 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
WR
- 1 hit
- 3 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

By dynasty rookie-draft round

Grouped by dynasty rookie-draft round: where he went in a 12-team fantasy rookie draft. This is not where he went in the real NFL draft.

Rookie-draft round 1

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 2

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 3

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 4 and later

All
- 1 hit
- 3 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies

Hit: a top-24 RB or WR season, or a top-12 QB or TE season, in his first three years.

Bust: never a top-36 season, and worth under a quarter of his draft-day value three years in.

In between: everyone else.

Every 2022 rookie: value now vs his slot expectation (Superflex)

● hit◆ bust● otherDots on the floor: no longer valued (value 0).

So what: James Cook (1.10) is now worth 8.5× his slot; Trey McBride (2.09) is now worth +5,003 points over his slot; Chris Olave (1.07) is now worth 3.4× his slot; 25 of 68 are worth less than their slot predicted, and 21 are no longer listed.

Biggest overperformers

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
James Cook RBRookie slot 1.10 · NFL round 2, pick 63 · expected 764	1.10	Round 2, #63	764	6,497	+5,733	—
Trey McBride TERookie slot 2.09 · NFL round 2, pick 55 · expected 219	2.09	Round 2, #55	219	5,222	+5,003	—
Chris Olave WRRookie slot 1.07 · NFL round 1, pick 11 · expected 1,720	1.07	Round 1, #11	1,720	5,778	+4,058	—
Drake London WRRookie slot 1.03 · NFL round 1, pick 8 · expected 2,568	1.03	Round 1, #8	2,568	6,559	+3,991	—
George Pickens WRRookie slot 1.12 · NFL round 2, pick 52 · expected 703	1.12	Round 2, #52	703	4,307	+3,604	—
Kyren Williams RBRookie slot 4.01 · NFL round 5, pick 164 · expected 45	4.01	Round 5, #164	45	3,121	+3,076	—
Christian Watson WRRookie slot 1.11 · NFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 736	1.11	Round 2, #34	736	3,437	+2,701	—
Garrett Wilson WRRookie slot 1.04 · NFL round 1, pick 10 · expected 2,505	1.04	Round 1, #10	2,505	5,137	+2,632	—
Isaiah Likely TERookie slot 5.06 · NFL round 4, pick 139 · expected 5	5.06	Round 4, #139	5	1,272	+1,267	—
Alec Pierce WRRookie slot 2.11 · NFL round 2, pick 53 · expected 177	2.11	Round 2, #53	177	1,089	+912	—

Biggest busts

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Treylon Burks WRRookie slot 1.05 · NFL round 1, pick 18 · expected 2,437	1.05	Round 1, #18	2,437	14	−2,423	—
Skyy Moore WRRookie slot 1.08 · NFL round 2, pick 54 · expected 1,305	1.08	Round 2, #54	1,305	2	−1,303	—
Christian Watson WRRookie slot 1.11 · NFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 736	1.11	Round 2, #34	736	3,437	+2,701	—
Jahan Dotson WRRookie slot 2.01 · NFL round 1, pick 16 · expected 698	2.01	Round 1, #16	698	13	−685	—
Malik Willis QBRookie slot 2.02 · NFL round 3, pick 86 · expected 652	2.02	Round 3, #86	652	1,074	+422	—
Isaiah Spiller RBRookie slot 2.05 · NFL round 4, pick 123 · expected 338	2.05	Round 4, #123	338	0	−338	—
Matt Corral QBRookie slot 2.07 · NFL round 3, pick 94 · expected 281	2.07	Round 3, #94	281	0	−281	—
David Bell WRRookie slot 2.08 · NFL round 3, pick 99 · expected 224	2.08	Round 3, #99	224	0	−224	—
Zamir White RBRookie slot 2.12 · NFL round 4, pick 122 · expected 172	2.12	Round 4, #122	172	2	−170	—
John Metchie WRRookie slot 3.03 · NFL round 2, pick 44 · expected 132	3.03	Round 2, #44	132	13	−119	—

So what: About half of the 2022 rookies busted; the costliest by slot is Treylon Burks at 1.05.

The whole class

Rookie-draft slot	Player	NFL draft pick	Age	Expected	+1y	+2y	+3y	Now	Best (PPR)	Result
1.01	Breece Hall RBNFL round 2, pick 36 · expected 7,268 · a year later 8,434, two years 8,085, three years 5,656	Round 2, #36	20.9	7,268	8,434	8,085	5,656	5,197	—	Hit
1.02	Kenneth Walker RBNFL round 2, pick 41 · expected 2,715 · a year later 5,956, two years 4,177, three years 2,704	Round 2, #41	21.5	2,715	5,956	4,177	2,704	0	—	Hit
1.03	Drake London WRNFL round 1, pick 8 · expected 2,568 · a year later 5,053, two years 5,088, three years 5,860	Round 1, #8	20.8	2,568	5,053	5,088	5,860	6,559	—	Hit
1.04	Garrett Wilson WRNFL round 1, pick 10 · expected 2,505 · a year later 7,587, two years 7,154, three years 5,845	Round 1, #10	21.8	2,505	7,587	7,154	5,845	5,137	—	Hit
1.05	Treylon Burks WRNFL round 1, pick 18 · expected 2,437 · a year later 2,515, two years 110, three years 11	Round 1, #18	22.1	2,437	2,515	110	11	14	—	Bust
1.06	Jameson Williams WRNFL round 1, pick 12 · expected 2,176 · a year later 2,416, two years 480, three years 2,049	Round 1, #12	21.1	2,176	2,416	480	2,049	2,503	—	Hit
1.07	Chris Olave WRNFL round 1, pick 11 · expected 1,720 · a year later 6,406, two years 5,577, three years 3,349	Round 1, #11	21.8	1,720	6,406	5,577	3,349	5,778	—	Hit
1.08	Skyy Moore WRNFL round 2, pick 54 · expected 1,305 · a year later 369, two years 33, three years 2	Round 2, #54	21.6	1,305	369	33	2	2	—	Bust
1.09	Kenny Pickett QBNFL round 1, pick 20 · expected 1,074 · a year later 1,792, two years 85, three years 12	Round 1, #20	23.9	1,074	1,792	85	12	2	—	—
1.10	James Cook RBNFL round 2, pick 63 · expected 764 · a year later 880, two years 3,602, three years 3,594	Round 2, #63	22.6	764	880	3,602	3,594	6,497	—	Hit
1.11	Christian Watson WRNFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 736 · a year later 3,342, two years 808, three years 134	Round 2, #34	23.0	736	3,342	808	134	3,437	—	Bust
1.12	George Pickens WRNFL round 2, pick 52 · expected 703 · a year later 1,942, two years 2,235, three years 1,636	Round 2, #52	21.2	703	1,942	2,235	1,636	4,307	—	—
2.01	Jahan Dotson WRNFL round 1, pick 16 · expected 698 · a year later 2,078, two years 477, three years 20	Round 1, #16	22.1	698	2,078	477	20	13	—	Bust
2.02	Malik Willis QBNFL round 3, pick 86 · expected 652 · a year later 69, two years 3, three years 55	Round 3, #86	22.9	652	69	3	55	1,074	—	Bust
2.03	Rachaad White RBNFL round 3, pick 91 · expected 573 · a year later 1,675, two years 3,847, three years 288	Round 3, #91	23.3	573	1,675	3,847	288	252	—	Hit
2.04	Desmond Ridder QBNFL round 3, pick 74 · expected 467 · a year later 475, two years 22, three years 3	Round 3, #74	22.7	467	475	22	3	0	—	—
2.05	Isaiah Spiller RBNFL round 4, pick 123 · expected 338 · a year later 51, two years 14, three years 2	Round 4, #123	20.7	338	51	14	2	0	—	Bust
2.06	Dameon Pierce RBNFL round 4, pick 107 · expected 319 · a year later 2,064, two years 139, three years 18	Round 4, #107	22.2	319	2,064	139	18	2	—	—
2.07	Matt Corral QBNFL round 3, pick 94 · expected 281 · a year later 14, two years 2, three years 0	Round 3, #94	23.2	281	14	2	0	0	—	Bust
2.08	David Bell WRNFL round 3, pick 99 · expected 224 · a year later 29, two years 8, three years 2	Round 3, #99	21.4	224	29	8	2	0	—	Bust
2.09	Trey McBride TENFL round 2, pick 55 · expected 219 · a year later 310, two years 4,187, three years 4,567	Round 2, #55	22.4	219	310	4,187	4,567	5,222	—	Hit
2.10	Brian Robinson RBNFL round 3, pick 98 · expected 197 · a year later 736, two years 878, three years 886	Round 3, #98	23.1	197	736	878	886	93	—	Hit
2.11	Alec Pierce WRNFL round 2, pick 53 · expected 177 · a year later 248, two years 49, three years 92	Round 2, #53	22.0	177	248	49	92	1,089	—	—
2.12	Zamir White RBNFL round 4, pick 122 · expected 172 · a year later 70, two years 1,017, three years 13	Round 4, #122	22.6	172	70	1,017	13	2	—	Bust
3.01	Tyler Allgeier RBNFL round 5, pick 151 · expected 155 · a year later 521, two years 194, three years 114	Round 5, #151	22.0	155	521	194	114	221	—	—
3.02	Wan'Dale Robinson WRNFL round 2, pick 43 · expected 143 · a year later 362, two years 110, three years 160	Round 2, #43	21.3	143	362	110	160	736	—	—
3.03	John Metchie WRNFL round 2, pick 44 · expected 132 · a year later 165, two years 30, three years 25	Round 2, #44	21.8	132	165	30	25	13	—	Bust
3.04	Jalen Tolbert WRNFL round 3, pick 88 · expected 125 · a year later 17, two years 11, three years 59	Round 3, #88	23.2	125	17	11	59	11	—	—
3.05	Sam Howell QBNFL round 5, pick 144 · expected 118 · a year later 393, two years 226, three years 16	Round 5, #144	21.6	118	393	226	16	2	—	Hit
3.06	Tyrion Davis-Price RBNFL round 3, pick 93 · expected 92 · a year later 17, two years 4, three years 1	Round 3, #93	21.5	92	17	4	1	0	—	Bust
3.07	Pierre Strong RBNFL round 4, pick 127 · expected 70 · a year later 39, two years 20, three years 6	Round 4, #127	23.4	70	39	20	6	1	—	Bust
3.08	Hassan Haskins RBNFL round 4, pick 131 · expected 66 · a year later 30, two years 3, three years 2	Round 4, #131	22.4	66	30	3	2	1	—	Bust
3.09	Jelani Woods TENFL round 3, pick 73 · expected 64 · a year later 96, two years 61, three years 3	Round 3, #73	23.6	64	96	61	3	2	—	—
3.10	Khalil Shakir WRNFL round 5, pick 148 · expected 55 · a year later 76, two years 176, three years 973	Round 5, #148	22.2	55	76	176	973	510	—	—
3.11	Tyquan Thornton WRNFL round 2, pick 50 · expected 50 · a year later 89, two years 14, three years 2	Round 2, #50	21.7	50	89	14	2	28	—	Bust
3.12	Greg Dulcich TENFL round 3, pick 80 · expected 45 · a year later 628, two years 102, three years 8	Round 3, #80	22.1	45	628	102	8	94	—	—
4.01	Kyren Williams RBNFL round 5, pick 164 · expected 45 · a year later 29, two years 4,482, three years 3,429	Round 5, #164	21.7	45	29	4,482	3,429	3,121	—	Hit
4.02	Jerome Ford RBNFL round 5, pick 156 · expected 31 · a year later 47, two years 293, three years 88	Round 5, #156	22.6	31	47	293	88	13	—	Hit
4.03	Keaontay Ingram RBNFL round 6, pick 201 · expected 29 · a year later 25, two years 9, three years 2	Round 6, #201	22.5	29	25	9	2	1	—	Bust
4.04	Romeo Doubs WRNFL round 4, pick 132 · expected 26 · a year later 185, two years 328, three years 254	Round 4, #132	22.0	26	185	328	254	457	—	—
4.05	Calvin Austin WRNFL round 4, pick 138 · expected 25 · a year later 11, two years 10, three years 34	Round 4, #138	23.1	25	11	10	34	19	—	—
4.06	Ty Chandler RBNFL round 5, pick 169 · expected 22 · a year later 9, two years 84, three years 16	Round 5, #169	24.0	22	9	84	16	2	—	—
4.07	Tyler Badie RBNFL round 6, pick 196 · expected 17 · a year later 4, two years 2, three years 3	Round 6, #196	22.2	17	4	2	3	4	—	Bust
4.08	Velus Jones WRNFL round 3, pick 71 · expected 17 · a year later 6, two years 2, three years 1	Round 3, #71	25.0	17	6	2	1	0	—	Bust
4.09	Jeremy Ruckert TENFL round 3, pick 101 · expected 16 · a year later 4, two years 8, three years 6	Round 3, #101	21.7	16	4	8	6	2	—	Bust
4.10	Danny Gray WRNFL round 3, pick 105 · expected 14 · a year later 6, two years 2, three years 1	Round 3, #105	23.1	14	6	2	1	0	—	Bust
4.11	Kyle Philips WRNFL round 5, pick 163 · expected 10 · a year later 21, two years 6, three years 2	Round 5, #163	22.9	10	21	6	2	0	—	Bust
4.12	Bailey Zappe QBNFL round 4, pick 137 · expected 8 · a year later 75, two years 4, three years 2	Round 4, #137	23.0	8	75	4	2	0	—	Bust
5.01	Daniel Bellinger TENFL round 4, pick 112 · expected 8 · a year later 51, two years 20, three years 7	Round 4, #112	21.6	8	51	20	7	2	—	—
5.02	Bo Melton WRNFL round 7, pick 229 · expected 8 · a year later 2, two years 17, three years 4	Round 7, #229	23.0	8	2	17	4	1	—	Bust
5.03	Kevin Harris RBNFL round 6, pick 183 · expected 8 · a year later 12, two years 4, three years 1	Round 6, #183	21.4	8	12	4	1	0	—	Bust
5.04	Charlie Kolar TENFL round 4, pick 128 · expected 7 · a year later 4, two years 7, three years 3	Round 4, #128	23.2	7	4	7	3	22	—	Bust
5.05	Cade Otton TENFL round 4, pick 106 · expected 6 · a year later 55, two years 130, three years 208	Round 4, #106	23.0	6	55	130	208	59	—	—
5.06	Isaiah Likely TENFL round 4, pick 139 · expected 5 · a year later 144, two years 269, three years 364	Round 4, #139	22.0	5	144	269	364	1,272	—	—
5.07	Chig Okonkwo TENFL round 4, pick 143 · expected 4 · a year later 382, two years 173, three years 99	Round 4, #143	22.6	4	382	173	99	0	—	—
5.08	Montrell Washington WRNFL round 5, pick 162 · expected 4 · a year later 1, two years 0, three years 0	Round 5, #162	23.1	4	1	0	0	0	—	Bust
5.09	Trestan Ebner RBNFL round 6, pick 203 · expected 4 · a year later 6, two years 1, three years 0	Round 6, #203	23.3	4	6	1	0	0	—	Bust
5.10	Cole Turner TENFL round 5, pick 149 · expected 4 · a year later 3, two years 7, three years 2	Round 5, #149	22.1	4	3	7	2	0	—	Bust
5.11	Grant Calcaterra TENFL round 6, pick 198 · expected 4 · a year later 3, two years 3, three years 8	Round 6, #198	23.4	4	3	3	8	2	—	—
5.12	Jalen Nailor WRNFL round 6, pick 191 · expected 3 · a year later 2, two years 1, three years 17	Round 6, #191	23.2	3	2	1	17	54	—	—
6.01	Snoop Conner RBNFL round 5, pick 154 · expected 3 · a year later 4, two years 2, three years 1	Round 5, #154	21.7	3	4	2	1	0	—	Bust
6.02	Dareke Young WRNFL round 7, pick 233 · expected 3 · a year later 2, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #233	22.9	3	2	0	0	0	—	Bust
6.03	Erik Ezukanma WRNFL round 4, pick 125 · expected 3 · a year later 4, two years 1, three years 1	Round 4, #125	22.3	3	4	1	1	0	—	Bust
6.04	Jake Ferguson TENFL round 4, pick 129 · expected 3 · a year later 54, two years 658, three years 379	Round 4, #129	23.3	3	54	658	379	383	—	Hit
6.05	Samori Toure WRNFL round 7, pick 258 · expected 2 · a year later 3, two years 1, three years 1	Round 7, #258	24.1	2	3	1	1	0	—	Bust
6.06	Michael Woods WRNFL round 6, pick 202 · expected 2 · a year later 1, two years 0, three years 0	Round 6, #202	22.1	2	1	0	0	0	—	Bust
6.07	James Mitchell TENFL round 5, pick 177 · expected 1 · a year later 4, two years 4, three years 1	Round 5, #177	22.7	1	4	4	1	1	—	—
6.08	Skylar Thompson QBNFL round 7, pick 247 · expected 1 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years 2	Round 7, #247	24.9	1	3	2	2	0	—	—

1QB

Hits, in-betweens and busts, by position

Grouped by position, all picks in the class together.

Class 2022

All
- 2 hit
- 4 in between
- 4 bust
out of every 10 rookies
QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
RB
- 4 hit
- 1 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
WR
- 1 hit
- 4 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

By dynasty rookie-draft round

Grouped by dynasty rookie-draft round: where he went in a 12-team fantasy rookie draft. This is not where he went in the real NFL draft.

Rookie-draft round 1

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 2

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 3

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 4 and later

All
- 0 hit
- 5 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies

Hit: a top-24 RB or WR season, or a top-12 QB or TE season, in his first three years.

Bust: never a top-36 season, and worth under a quarter of his draft-day value three years in.

In between: everyone else.

Every 2022 rookie: value now vs his slot expectation (1QB)

● hit◆ bust● otherDots on the floor: no longer valued (value 0).

So what: James Cook (1.09) is now worth 8.9× his slot; Trey McBride (2.04) is now worth 10×+ his slot; Chris Olave (1.07) is now worth 4.0× his slot; 23 of 68 are worth less than their slot predicted, and 21 are no longer listed.

Biggest overperformers

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
James Cook RBRookie slot 1.09 · NFL round 2, pick 63 · expected 773	1.09	Round 2, #63	773	6,883	+6,110	—
Trey McBride TERookie slot 2.04 · NFL round 2, pick 55 · expected 297	2.04	Round 2, #55	297	5,480	+5,183	—
Chris Olave WRRookie slot 1.07 · NFL round 1, pick 11 · expected 1,555	1.07	Round 1, #11	1,555	6,236	+4,681	—
Drake London WRRookie slot 1.03 · NFL round 1, pick 8 · expected 2,693	1.03	Round 1, #8	2,693	6,708	+4,015	—
George Pickens WRRookie slot 1.11 · NFL round 2, pick 52 · expected 655	1.11	Round 2, #52	655	4,143	+3,488	—
Kyren Williams RBRookie slot 3.09 · NFL round 5, pick 164 · expected 36	3.09	Round 5, #164	36	3,268	+3,232	—
Christian Watson WRRookie slot 1.10 · NFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 715	1.10	Round 2, #34	715	3,781	+3,066	—
Garrett Wilson WRRookie slot 1.04 · NFL round 1, pick 10 · expected 2,646	1.04	Round 1, #10	2,646	5,545	+2,899	—
Isaiah Likely TERookie slot 5.06 · NFL round 4, pick 139 · expected 3	5.06	Round 4, #139	3	1,334	+1,331	—
Alec Pierce WRRookie slot 2.07 · NFL round 2, pick 53 · expected 199	2.07	Round 2, #53	199	1,238	+1,039	—

Biggest busts

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Treylon Burks WRRookie slot 1.05 · NFL round 1, pick 18 · expected 2,501	1.05	Round 1, #18	2,501	7	−2,494	—
Skyy Moore WRRookie slot 1.08 · NFL round 2, pick 54 · expected 1,245	1.08	Round 2, #54	1,245	2	−1,243	—
Christian Watson WRRookie slot 1.10 · NFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 715	1.10	Round 2, #34	715	3,781	+3,066	—
Jahan Dotson WRRookie slot 1.12 · NFL round 1, pick 16 · expected 625	1.12	Round 1, #16	625	7	−618	—
Isaiah Spiller RBRookie slot 2.02 · NFL round 4, pick 123 · expected 368	2.02	Round 4, #123	368	0	−368	—
David Bell WRRookie slot 2.05 · NFL round 3, pick 99 · expected 261	2.05	Round 3, #99	261	0	−261	—
Zamir White RBRookie slot 2.08 · NFL round 4, pick 122 · expected 183	2.08	Round 4, #122	183	2	−181	—
John Metchie WRRookie slot 2.10 · NFL round 2, pick 44 · expected 135	2.10	Round 2, #44	135	9	−126	—
Tyrion Davis-Price RBRookie slot 3.02 · NFL round 3, pick 93 · expected 79	3.02	Round 3, #93	79	0	−79	—
Pierre Strong RBRookie slot 3.03 · NFL round 4, pick 127 · expected 56	3.03	Round 4, #127	56	1	−55	—

So what: About 4 in 10 of the 2022 rookies busted; the costliest by slot is Treylon Burks at 1.05.

The whole class

Rookie-draft slot	Player	NFL draft pick	Age	Expected	+1y	+2y	+3y	Now	Best (PPR)	Result
1.01	Breece Hall RBNFL round 2, pick 36 · expected 6,984 · a year later 8,132, two years 8,209, three years 6,192	Round 2, #36	20.9	6,984	8,132	8,209	6,192	5,704	—	Hit
1.02	Kenneth Walker RBNFL round 2, pick 41 · expected 2,947 · a year later 6,077, two years 4,530, three years 3,024	Round 2, #41	21.5	2,947	6,077	4,530	3,024	0	—	Hit
1.03	Drake London WRNFL round 1, pick 8 · expected 2,693 · a year later 5,179, two years 5,480, three years 6,295	Round 1, #8	20.8	2,693	5,179	5,480	6,295	6,708	—	Hit
1.04	Garrett Wilson WRNFL round 1, pick 10 · expected 2,646 · a year later 7,561, two years 7,526, three years 6,459	Round 1, #10	21.8	2,646	7,561	7,526	6,459	5,545	—	Hit
1.05	Treylon Burks WRNFL round 1, pick 18 · expected 2,501 · a year later 2,779, two years 90, three years 5	Round 1, #18	22.1	2,501	2,779	90	5	7	—	Bust
1.06	Jameson Williams WRNFL round 1, pick 12 · expected 2,175 · a year later 2,759, two years 526, three years 2,265	Round 1, #12	21.1	2,175	2,759	526	2,265	2,785	—	Hit
1.07	Chris Olave WRNFL round 1, pick 11 · expected 1,555 · a year later 6,310, two years 6,077, three years 3,745	Round 1, #11	21.8	1,555	6,310	6,077	3,745	6,236	—	Hit
1.08	Skyy Moore WRNFL round 2, pick 54 · expected 1,245 · a year later 381, two years 19, three years 2	Round 2, #54	21.6	1,245	381	19	2	2	—	Bust
1.09	James Cook RBNFL round 2, pick 63 · expected 773 · a year later 1,029, two years 3,852, three years 4,056	Round 2, #63	22.6	773	1,029	3,852	4,056	6,883	—	Hit
1.10	Christian Watson WRNFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 715 · a year later 3,230, two years 934, three years 122	Round 2, #34	23.0	715	3,230	934	122	3,781	—	Bust
1.11	George Pickens WRNFL round 2, pick 52 · expected 655 · a year later 2,136, two years 2,488, three years 2,297	Round 2, #52	21.2	655	2,136	2,488	2,297	4,143	—	—
1.12	Jahan Dotson WRNFL round 1, pick 16 · expected 625 · a year later 2,319, two years 522, three years 11	Round 1, #16	22.1	625	2,319	522	11	7	—	Bust
2.01	Rachaad White RBNFL round 3, pick 91 · expected 604 · a year later 1,944, two years 4,133, three years 283	Round 3, #91	23.3	604	1,944	4,133	283	240	—	Hit
2.02	Isaiah Spiller RBNFL round 4, pick 123 · expected 368 · a year later 40, two years 5, three years 1	Round 4, #123	20.7	368	40	5	1	0	—	Bust
2.03	Dameon Pierce RBNFL round 4, pick 107 · expected 349 · a year later 2,471, two years 124, three years 8	Round 4, #107	22.2	349	2,471	124	8	2	—	—
2.04	Trey McBride TENFL round 2, pick 55 · expected 297 · a year later 324, two years 4,541, three years 4,965	Round 2, #55	22.4	297	324	4,541	4,965	5,480	—	Hit
2.05	David Bell WRNFL round 3, pick 99 · expected 261 · a year later 22, two years 3, three years 2	Round 3, #99	21.4	261	22	3	2	0	—	Bust
2.06	Brian Robinson RBNFL round 3, pick 98 · expected 253 · a year later 870, two years 998, three years 993	Round 3, #98	23.1	253	870	998	993	87	—	Hit
2.07	Alec Pierce WRNFL round 2, pick 53 · expected 199 · a year later 273, two years 33, three years 82	Round 2, #53	22.0	199	273	33	82	1,238	—	—
2.08	Zamir White RBNFL round 4, pick 122 · expected 183 · a year later 58, two years 1,129, three years 5	Round 4, #122	22.6	183	58	1,129	5	2	—	Bust
2.09	Tyler Allgeier RBNFL round 5, pick 151 · expected 149 · a year later 589, two years 195, three years 103	Round 5, #151	22.0	149	589	195	103	218	—	—
2.10	John Metchie WRNFL round 2, pick 44 · expected 135 · a year later 142, two years 16, three years 13	Round 2, #44	21.8	135	142	16	13	9	—	Bust
2.11	Wan'Dale Robinson WRNFL round 2, pick 43 · expected 126 · a year later 405, two years 91, three years 148	Round 2, #43	21.3	126	405	91	148	852	—	—
2.12	Jalen Tolbert WRNFL round 3, pick 88 · expected 113 · a year later 8, two years 4, three years 47	Round 3, #88	23.2	113	8	4	47	8	—	—
3.01	Kenny Pickett QBNFL round 1, pick 20 · expected 101 · a year later 263, two years 11, three years 5	Round 1, #20	23.9	101	263	11	5	3	—	—
3.02	Tyrion Davis-Price RBNFL round 3, pick 93 · expected 79 · a year later 11, two years 2, three years 1	Round 3, #93	21.5	79	11	2	1	0	—	Bust
3.03	Pierre Strong RBNFL round 4, pick 127 · expected 56 · a year later 31, two years 7, three years 3	Round 4, #127	23.4	56	31	7	3	1	—	Bust
3.04	Hassan Haskins RBNFL round 4, pick 131 · expected 56 · a year later 19, two years 2, three years 2	Round 4, #131	22.4	56	19	2	2	1	—	Bust
3.05	Malik Willis QBNFL round 3, pick 86 · expected 51 · a year later 5, two years 3, three years 6	Round 3, #86	22.9	51	5	3	6	284	—	Bust
3.06	Jelani Woods TENFL round 3, pick 73 · expected 50 · a year later 99, two years 44, three years 3	Round 3, #73	23.6	50	99	44	3	2	—	—
3.07	Khalil Shakir WRNFL round 5, pick 148 · expected 40 · a year later 69, two years 166, three years 1,093	Round 5, #148	22.2	40	69	166	1,093	556	—	—
3.08	Desmond Ridder QBNFL round 3, pick 74 · expected 37 · a year later 35, two years 5, three years 3	Round 3, #74	22.7	37	35	5	3	0	—	—
3.09	Kyren Williams RBNFL round 5, pick 164 · expected 36 · a year later 18, two years 4,038, three years 3,589	Round 5, #164	21.7	36	18	4,038	3,589	3,268	—	Hit
3.10	Tyquan Thornton WRNFL round 2, pick 50 · expected 35 · a year later 78, two years 5, three years 2	Round 2, #50	21.7	35	78	5	2	21	—	Bust
3.11	Greg Dulcich TENFL round 3, pick 80 · expected 33 · a year later 638, two years 81, three years 3	Round 3, #80	22.1	33	638	81	3	82	—	—
3.12	Jerome Ford RBNFL round 5, pick 156 · expected 23 · a year later 43, two years 300, three years 73	Round 5, #156	22.6	23	43	300	73	7	—	Hit
4.01	Matt Corral QBNFL round 3, pick 94 · expected 22 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years 0	Round 3, #94	23.2	22	3	2	0	0	—	Bust
4.02	Romeo Doubs WRNFL round 4, pick 132 · expected 20 · a year later 175, two years 353, three years 247	Round 4, #132	22.0	20	175	353	247	490	—	—
4.03	Calvin Austin WRNFL round 4, pick 138 · expected 19 · a year later 5, two years 4, three years 24	Round 4, #138	23.1	19	5	4	24	14	—	—
4.04	Keaontay Ingram RBNFL round 6, pick 201 · expected 14 · a year later 17, two years 3, three years 1	Round 6, #201	22.5	14	17	3	1	1	—	Bust
4.05	Tyler Badie RBNFL round 6, pick 196 · expected 13 · a year later 5, two years 1, three years 2	Round 6, #196	22.2	13	5	1	2	4	—	Bust
4.06	Ty Chandler RBNFL round 5, pick 169 · expected 12 · a year later 5, two years 67, three years 5	Round 5, #169	24.0	12	5	67	5	2	—	Bust
4.07	Velus Jones WRNFL round 3, pick 71 · expected 12 · a year later 4, two years 2, three years 1	Round 3, #71	25.0	12	4	2	1	0	—	Bust
4.08	Jeremy Ruckert TENFL round 3, pick 101 · expected 11 · a year later 4, two years 3, three years 3	Round 3, #101	21.7	11	4	3	3	2	—	Bust
4.09	Danny Gray WRNFL round 3, pick 105 · expected 9 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years 1	Round 3, #105	23.1	9	3	2	1	0	—	Bust
4.10	Kevin Harris RBNFL round 6, pick 183 · expected 6 · a year later 7, two years 3, three years 1	Round 6, #183	21.4	6	7	3	1	0	—	Bust
4.11	Kyle Philips WRNFL round 5, pick 163 · expected 5 · a year later 12, two years 3, three years 2	Round 5, #163	22.9	5	12	3	2	0	—	Bust
4.12	Daniel Bellinger TENFL round 4, pick 112 · expected 4 · a year later 28, two years 9, three years 3	Round 4, #112	21.6	4	28	9	3	2	—	—
5.01	Bo Melton WRNFL round 7, pick 229 · expected 4 · a year later 2, two years 6, three years 4	Round 7, #229	23.0	4	2	6	4	1	—	—
5.02	Cade Otton TENFL round 4, pick 106 · expected 4 · a year later 38, two years 116, three years 197	Round 4, #106	23.0	4	38	116	197	42	—	—
5.03	Charlie Kolar TENFL round 4, pick 128 · expected 4 · a year later 4, two years 5, three years 2	Round 4, #128	23.2	4	4	5	2	16	—	—
5.04	Montrell Washington WRNFL round 5, pick 162 · expected 4 · a year later 1, two years 0, three years 0	Round 5, #162	23.1	4	1	0	0	0	—	Bust
5.05	Samori Toure WRNFL round 7, pick 258 · expected 3 · a year later 3, two years 1, three years 1	Round 7, #258	24.1	3	3	1	1	0	—	Bust
5.06	Isaiah Likely TENFL round 4, pick 139 · expected 3 · a year later 121, two years 275, three years 372	Round 4, #139	22.0	3	121	275	372	1,334	—	—
5.07	Jalen Nailor WRNFL round 6, pick 191 · expected 2 · a year later 2, two years 0, three years 7	Round 6, #191	23.2	2	2	0	7	48	—	—
5.08	Michael Woods WRNFL round 6, pick 202 · expected 2 · a year later 1, two years 0, three years 0	Round 6, #202	22.1	2	1	0	0	0	—	Bust
5.09	Sam Howell QBNFL round 5, pick 144 · expected 2 · a year later 27, two years 16, three years 4	Round 5, #144	21.6	2	27	16	4	2	—	Hit
5.10	Dareke Young WRNFL round 7, pick 233 · expected 2 · a year later 2, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #233	22.9	2	2	0	0	0	—	Bust
5.11	Snoop Conner RBNFL round 5, pick 154 · expected 2 · a year later 5, two years 1, three years 0	Round 5, #154	21.7	2	5	1	0	0	—	Bust
5.12	Trestan Ebner RBNFL round 6, pick 203 · expected 2 · a year later 4, two years 1, three years 0	Round 6, #203	23.3	2	4	1	0	0	—	Bust
6.01	Chig Okonkwo TENFL round 4, pick 143 · expected 2 · a year later 449, two years 161, three years 88	Round 4, #143	22.6	2	449	161	88	0	—	—
6.02	Cole Turner TENFL round 5, pick 149 · expected 2 · a year later 3, two years 5, three years 2	Round 5, #149	22.1	2	3	5	2	0	—	—
6.03	Grant Calcaterra TENFL round 6, pick 198 · expected 2 · a year later 3, two years 3, three years 4	Round 6, #198	23.4	2	3	3	4	2	—	—
6.04	Jake Ferguson TENFL round 4, pick 129 · expected 2 · a year later 29, two years 739, three years 383	Round 4, #129	23.3	2	29	739	383	356	—	Hit
6.05	Erik Ezukanma WRNFL round 4, pick 125 · expected 1 · a year later 4, two years 1, three years 1	Round 4, #125	22.3	1	4	1	1	0	—	—
6.06	James Mitchell TENFL round 5, pick 177 · expected 1 · a year later 4, two years 4, three years 1	Round 5, #177	22.7	1	4	4	1	1	—	—
6.07	Bailey Zappe QBNFL round 4, pick 137 · expected 1 · a year later 5, two years 3, three years 3	Round 4, #137	23.0	1	5	3	3	0	—	—
6.08	Skylar Thompson QBNFL round 7, pick 247 · expected 1 · a year later 2, two years 2, three years 2	Round 7, #247	24.9	1	2	2	2	0	—	—

About these numbers

We compare what the market expected from each rookie on rookie-draft day with how he did over his first three NFL seasons. A hit is a top-end season, a bust never had one and lost most of his value, and everyone else is in between. Only classes whose three seasons are over count in the headline numbers. The full method is in our public notes. A dash in a later-year column means that date has not arrived yet, and 0 means he is no longer valued.

Values come from the market, Sleeper season totals and nflverse draft capital.