Class 2021 · first three seasons finished · 2026-11-11

The 2021 dynasty rookie class: expectation vs reality

About 1 in 5 of this class became a hit, about the same as a typical class. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) is the biggest riser.

Class 2021 means the players picked in the 2021 NFL draft. Hits and busts count their 2021-2023 seasons (all three are finished). "Two years later" means value in 2023.

So what: out of every 10 2021 rookies, 2 hit and 6 busted; Amon-Ra St. Brown is the biggest riser.

Superflex1QB

Superflex

Hits, in-betweens and busts, by position

Grouped by position, all picks in the class together.

Class 2021

All
- 2 hit
- 2 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
RB
- 3 hit
- 2 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
WR
- 1 hit
- 1 in between
- 8 bust
out of every 10 rookies
TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

By dynasty rookie-draft round

Grouped by dynasty rookie-draft round: where he went in a 12-team fantasy rookie draft. This is not where he went in the real NFL draft.

Rookie-draft round 1

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 2

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 3

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 4 and later

All
- 0 hit
- 2 in between
- 8 bust
out of every 10 rookies

Hit: a top-24 RB or WR season, or a top-12 QB or TE season, in his first three years.

Bust: never a top-36 season, and worth under a quarter of his draft-day value three years in.

In between: everyone else.

Every 2021 rookie: value now vs his slot expectation (Superflex)

● hit◆ bust● otherDots on the floor: no longer valued (value 0).

So what: Amon-Ra St. Brown (2.08) is now worth +8,670 points over his slot; Ja'Marr Chase (1.03) is now worth 2.8× his slot; Nico Collins (3.04) is now worth +4,489 points over his slot; 26 of 66 are worth less than their slot predicted, and 31 are no longer listed.

Biggest overperformers

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Amon-Ra St. Brown WRRookie slot 2.08 · NFL round 4, pick 112 · expected 191	2.08	Round 4, #112	191	8,861	+8,670	—
Ja'Marr Chase WRRookie slot 1.03 · NFL round 1, pick 5 · expected 3,486	1.03	Round 1, #5	3,486	9,895	+6,409	—
Nico Collins WRRookie slot 3.04 · NFL round 3, pick 89 · expected 67	3.04	Round 3, #89	67	4,556	+4,489	—
DeVonta Smith WRRookie slot 1.10 · NFL round 1, pick 10 · expected 1,818	1.10	Round 1, #10	1,818	3,847	+2,029	—
Jaylen Waddle WRRookie slot 1.11 · NFL round 1, pick 6 · expected 1,368	1.11	Round 1, #6	1,368	3,195	+1,827	—
Chuba Hubbard RBRookie slot 2.10 · NFL round 4, pick 126 · expected 123	2.10	Round 4, #126	123	1,105	+982	—
Trevor Lawrence QBRookie slot 1.01 · NFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 6,553	1.01	Round 1, #1	6,553	7,325	+772	—
Rhamondre Stevenson RBRookie slot 3.05 · NFL round 4, pick 120 · expected 60	3.05	Round 4, #120	60	482	+422	—
Noah Gray TERookie slot 5.07 · NFL round 5, pick 162 · expected 6	5.07	Round 5, #162	6	6	+0	—
Frank Darby WRRookie slot 6.06 · NFL round 6, pick 187 · expected 1	6.06	Round 6, #187	1	0	−1	—

Biggest busts

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Trey Lance QBRookie slot 1.05 · NFL round 1, pick 3 · expected 3,363	1.05	Round 1, #3	3,363	3	−3,360	—
Trey Sermon RBRookie slot 2.01 · NFL round 3, pick 88 · expected 1,059	2.01	Round 3, #88	1,059	1	−1,058	—
Rashod Bateman WRRookie slot 2.02 · NFL round 1, pick 27 · expected 963	2.02	Round 1, #27	963	53	−910	—
Elijah Moore WRRookie slot 2.04 · NFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 498	2.04	Round 2, #34	498	2	−496	—
Rondale Moore WRRookie slot 2.05 · NFL round 2, pick 49 · expected 436	2.05	Round 2, #49	436	0	−436	—
Terrace Marshall WRRookie slot 2.06 · NFL round 2, pick 59 · expected 323	2.06	Round 2, #59	323	0	−323	—
Kadarius Toney WRRookie slot 2.07 · NFL round 1, pick 20 · expected 217	2.07	Round 1, #20	217	0	−217	—
Kyle Trask QBRookie slot 2.09 · NFL round 2, pick 64 · expected 132	2.09	Round 2, #64	132	0	−132	—
Kellen Mond QBRookie slot 2.11 · NFL round 3, pick 66 · expected 126	2.11	Round 3, #66	126	0	−126	—
Amari Rodgers WRRookie slot 3.01 · NFL round 3, pick 85 · expected 112	3.01	Round 3, #85	112	0	−112	—

So what: About 6 in 10 of the 2021 rookies busted; the costliest by slot is Trey Lance at 1.05.

The whole class

Rookie-draft slot	Player	NFL draft pick	Age	Expected	+1y	+2y	+3y	Now	Best (PPR)	Result
1.01	Trevor Lawrence QBNFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 6,553 · a year later 4,924, two years 8,840, three years 5,804	Round 1, #1	21.6	6,553	4,924	8,840	5,804	7,325	—	Hit
1.02	Najee Harris RBNFL round 1, pick 24 · expected 4,532 · a year later 9,463, two years 3,838, three years 1,337	Round 1, #24	23.1	4,532	9,463	3,838	1,337	19	—	Hit
1.03	Ja'Marr Chase WRNFL round 1, pick 5 · expected 3,486 · a year later 10,012, two years 9,711, three years 9,780	Round 1, #5	21.2	3,486	10,012	9,711	9,780	9,895	—	Hit
1.04	Justin Fields QBNFL round 1, pick 11 · expected 3,290 · a year later 4,266, two years 8,180, three years 1,013	Round 1, #11	22.2	3,290	4,266	8,180	1,013	81	—	Hit
1.05	Trey Lance QBNFL round 1, pick 3 · expected 3,363 · a year later 4,901, two years 1,896, three years 44	Round 1, #3	21.0	3,363	4,901	1,896	44	3	—	Bust
1.06	Travis Etienne RBNFL round 1, pick 25 · expected 3,074 · a year later 2,868, two years 5,832, three years 5,998	Round 1, #25	22.3	3,074	2,868	5,832	5,998	1,763	—	Hit
1.07	Kyle Pitts TENFL round 1, pick 4 · expected 2,926 · a year later 7,841, two years 5,371, three years 2,636	Round 1, #4	20.6	2,926	7,841	5,371	2,636	1,454	—	Hit
1.08	Javonte Williams RBNFL round 2, pick 35 · expected 2,403 · a year later 8,574, two years 3,165, three years 2,006	Round 2, #35	21.0	2,403	8,574	3,165	2,006	2,305	—	Hit
1.09	Zach Wilson QBNFL round 1, pick 2 · expected 1,772 · a year later 2,382, two years 58, three years 4	Round 1, #2	21.7	1,772	2,382	58	4	2	—	—
1.10	DeVonta Smith WRNFL round 1, pick 10 · expected 1,818 · a year later 2,704, two years 5,247, three years 4,389	Round 1, #10	22.5	1,818	2,704	5,247	4,389	3,847	—	Hit
1.11	Jaylen Waddle WRNFL round 1, pick 6 · expected 1,368 · a year later 5,512, two years 7,481, three years 4,901	Round 1, #6	22.4	1,368	5,512	7,481	4,901	3,195	—	Hit
1.12	Mac Jones QBNFL round 1, pick 15 · expected 1,096 · a year later 2,214, two years 802, three years 23	Round 1, #15	22.7	1,096	2,214	802	23	194	—	—
2.01	Trey Sermon RBNFL round 3, pick 88 · expected 1,059 · a year later 100, two years 6, three years 7	Round 3, #88	22.3	1,059	100	6	7	1	—	Bust
2.02	Rashod Bateman WRNFL round 1, pick 27 · expected 963 · a year later 2,467, two years 1,017, three years 111	Round 1, #27	21.4	963	2,467	1,017	111	53	—	Bust
2.03	Michael Carter RBNFL round 4, pick 107 · expected 847 · a year later 720, two years 110, three years 25	Round 4, #107	22.0	847	720	110	25	1	—	—
2.04	Elijah Moore WRNFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 498 · a year later 2,782, two years 736, three years 125	Round 2, #34	21.1	498	2,782	736	125	2	—	Bust
2.05	Rondale Moore WRNFL round 2, pick 49 · expected 436 · a year later 386, two years 277, three years 58	Round 2, #49	20.9	436	386	277	58	0	—	Bust
2.06	Terrace Marshall WRNFL round 2, pick 59 · expected 323 · a year later 91, two years 96, three years 12	Round 2, #59	20.9	323	91	96	12	0	—	Bust
2.07	Kadarius Toney WRNFL round 1, pick 20 · expected 217 · a year later 582, two years 777, three years 33	Round 1, #20	22.3	217	582	777	33	0	—	Bust
2.08	Amon-Ra St. Brown WRNFL round 4, pick 112 · expected 191 · a year later 1,616, two years 7,004, three years 8,923	Round 4, #112	21.5	191	1,616	7,004	8,923	8,861	—	Hit
2.09	Kyle Trask QBNFL round 2, pick 64 · expected 132 · a year later 35, two years 40, three years 3	Round 2, #64	23.2	132	35	40	3	0	—	Bust
2.10	Chuba Hubbard RBNFL round 4, pick 126 · expected 123 · a year later 151, two years 72, three years 207	Round 4, #126	21.9	123	151	72	207	1,105	—	—
2.11	Kellen Mond QBNFL round 3, pick 66 · expected 126 · a year later 21, two years 2, three years 2	Round 3, #66	21.9	126	21	2	2	0	—	Bust
2.12	Pat Freiermuth TENFL round 2, pick 55 · expected 118 · a year later 1,147, two years 1,219, three years 441	Round 2, #55	22.5	118	1,147	1,219	441	76	—	Hit
3.01	Amari Rodgers WRNFL round 3, pick 85 · expected 112 · a year later 31, two years 4, three years 1	Round 3, #85	21.6	112	31	4	1	0	—	Bust
3.02	Davis Mills QBNFL round 3, pick 67 · expected 93 · a year later 900, two years 30, three years 2	Round 3, #67	22.5	93	900	30	2	3	—	—
3.03	Dyami Brown WRNFL round 3, pick 82 · expected 84 · a year later 40, two years 10, three years 3	Round 3, #82	21.5	84	40	10	3	3	—	Bust
3.04	Nico Collins WRNFL round 3, pick 89 · expected 67 · a year later 114, two years 188, three years 3,535	Round 3, #89	22.1	67	114	188	3,535	4,556	—	Hit
3.05	Rhamondre Stevenson RBNFL round 4, pick 120 · expected 60 · a year later 564, two years 3,785, three years 2,002	Round 4, #120	23.2	60	564	3,785	2,002	482	—	Hit
3.06	Tylan Wallace WRNFL round 4, pick 131 · expected 51 · a year later 13, two years 3, three years 1	Round 4, #131	22.0	51	13	3	1	1	—	Bust
3.07	Joshua Palmer WRNFL round 3, pick 77 · expected 47 · a year later 90, two years 129, three years 160	Round 3, #77	21.6	47	90	129	160	0	—	—
3.08	Elijah Mitchell RBNFL round 6, pick 194 · expected 42 · a year later 1,835, two years 278, three years 71	Round 6, #194	23.0	42	1,835	278	71	2	—	—
3.09	Tutu Atwell WRNFL round 2, pick 57 · expected 42 · a year later 8, two years 8, three years 33	Round 2, #57	21.6	42	8	8	33	9	—	—
3.10	Jermar Jefferson RBNFL round 7, pick 257 · expected 33 · a year later 17, two years 2, three years 0	Round 7, #257	21.0	33	17	2	0	0	—	Bust
3.11	Brevin Jordan TENFL round 5, pick 147 · expected 31 · a year later 96, two years 10, three years 14	Round 5, #147	20.8	31	96	10	14	2	—	—
3.12	Hunter Long TENFL round 3, pick 81 · expected 30 · a year later 14, two years 3, three years 6	Round 3, #81	22.7	30	14	3	6	2	—	Bust
4.01	Kylin Hill RBNFL round 7, pick 256 · expected 29 · a year later 23, two years 2, three years 0	Round 7, #256	22.7	29	23	2	0	0	—	Bust
4.02	Jaelon Darden WRNFL round 4, pick 129 · expected 24 · a year later 4, two years 2, three years 1	Round 4, #129	22.3	24	4	2	1	0	—	Bust
4.03	Cornell Powell WRNFL round 5, pick 181 · expected 20 · a year later 13, two years 1, three years 1	Round 5, #181	23.5	20	13	1	1	0	—	Bust
4.04	Larry Rountree RBNFL round 6, pick 198 · expected 19 · a year later 7, two years 2, three years 1	Round 6, #198	22.2	19	7	2	1	0	—	Bust
4.05	Anthony Schwartz WRNFL round 3, pick 91 · expected 17 · a year later 22, two years 4, three years 1	Round 3, #91	20.7	17	22	4	1	0	—	Bust
4.06	Chris Evans RBNFL round 6, pick 202 · expected 17 · a year later 40, two years 16, three years 4	Round 6, #202	23.6	17	40	16	4	0	—	Bust
4.07	Shi Smith WRNFL round 6, pick 204 · expected 16 · a year later 10, two years 4, three years 1	Round 6, #204	22.5	16	10	4	1	0	—	Bust
4.08	Khalil Herbert RBNFL round 6, pick 217 · expected 15 · a year later 277, two years 739, three years 196	Round 6, #217	23.0	15	277	739	196	2	—	—
4.09	Dez Fitzpatrick WRNFL round 4, pick 109 · expected 13 · a year later 11, two years 2, three years 1	Round 4, #109	23.4	13	11	2	1	0	—	Bust
4.10	Kene Nwangwu RBNFL round 4, pick 119 · expected 12 · a year later 19, two years 4, three years 2	Round 4, #119	23.2	12	19	4	2	1	—	Bust
4.11	Michael Strachan WRNFL round 7, pick 229 · expected 11 · a year later 4, two years 3, three years 1	Round 7, #229	23.7	11	4	3	1	0	—	Bust
4.12	Marquez Stevenson WRNFL round 6, pick 203 · expected 10 · a year later 27, two years 1, three years 1	Round 6, #203	23.1	10	27	1	1	0	—	Bust
5.01	Ihmir Smith-Marsette WRNFL round 5, pick 157 · expected 9 · a year later 9, two years 3, three years 1	Round 5, #157	21.7	9	9	3	1	0	—	Bust
5.02	Seth Williams WRNFL round 6, pick 219 · expected 9 · a year later 14, two years 1, three years 1	Round 6, #219	21.1	9	14	1	1	0	—	Bust
5.03	Tommy Tremble TENFL round 3, pick 83 · expected 9 · a year later 20, two years 6, three years 6	Round 3, #83	20.9	9	20	6	6	7	—	—
5.04	Jacob Harris WRNFL round 4, pick 141 · expected 8 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 4, #141	24.0	8	0	0	0	0	—	Bust
5.05	Sam Ehlinger QBNFL round 6, pick 218 · expected 8 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years 2	Round 6, #218	22.6	8	3	2	2	2	—	Bust
5.06	Gerrid Doaks RBNFL round 7, pick 244 · expected 7 · a year later 4, two years 1, three years 0	Round 7, #244	22.9	7	4	1	0	0	—	Bust
5.07	Noah Gray TENFL round 5, pick 162 · expected 6 · a year later 8, two years 12, three years 12	Round 5, #162	22.0	6	8	12	12	6	—	—
5.08	Simi Fehoko WRNFL round 5, pick 179 · expected 6 · a year later 8, two years 2, three years 1	Round 5, #179	23.5	6	8	2	1	0	—	Bust
5.09	Gary Brightwell RBNFL round 6, pick 196 · expected 5 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years 1	Round 6, #196	23.2	5	3	2	1	0	—	Bust
5.10	Ian Book QBNFL round 4, pick 133 · expected 5 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years 0	Round 4, #133	23.1	5	3	2	0	0	—	Bust
5.11	Tre' McKitty TENFL round 3, pick 97 · expected 5 · a year later 8, two years 3, three years 4	Round 3, #97	22.3	5	8	3	4	0	—	—
5.12	Dazz Newsome WRNFL round 6, pick 221 · expected 4 · a year later 7, two years 1, three years 0	Round 6, #221	22.0	4	7	1	0	0	—	Bust
6.01	Jake Funk RBNFL round 7, pick 233 · expected 4 · a year later 8, two years 1, three years 1	Round 7, #233	23.3	4	8	1	1	0	—	Bust
6.02	Kylen Granson TENFL round 4, pick 127 · expected 4 · a year later 13, two years 4, three years 10	Round 4, #127	23.1	4	13	4	10	2	—	—
6.03	Jalen Camp WRNFL round 6, pick 209 · expected 3 · a year later 14, two years 0, three years 0	Round 6, #209	22.8	3	14	0	0	0	—	Bust
6.04	Luke Farrell TENFL round 5, pick 145 · expected 2 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 5, #145	23.5	2	0	0	0	1	—	Bust
6.05	Dax Milne WRNFL round 7, pick 258 · expected 1 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #258	21.9	1	0	0	0	0	—	Bust
6.06	Frank Darby WRNFL round 6, pick 187 · expected 1 · a year later 4, two years 2, three years 0	Round 6, #187	23.6	1	4	2	0	0	—	Bust

1QB

Hits, in-betweens and busts, by position

Grouped by position, all picks in the class together.

Class 2021

All
- 2 hit
- 2 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
RB
- 3 hit
- 2 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
WR
- 1 hit
- 1 in between
- 8 bust
out of every 10 rookies
TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

By dynasty rookie-draft round

Grouped by dynasty rookie-draft round: where he went in a 12-team fantasy rookie draft. This is not where he went in the real NFL draft.

Rookie-draft round 1

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 2

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 3

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 4 and later

All
- 0 hit
- 3 in between
- 7 bust
out of every 10 rookies

Hit: a top-24 RB or WR season, or a top-12 QB or TE season, in his first three years.

Bust: never a top-36 season, and worth under a quarter of his draft-day value three years in.

In between: everyone else.

Every 2021 rookie: value now vs his slot expectation (1QB)

● hit◆ bust● otherDots on the floor: no longer valued (value 0).

So what: Amon-Ra St. Brown (2.06) is now worth +8,170 points over his slot; Ja'Marr Chase (1.02) is now worth 2.4× his slot; Nico Collins (3.01) is now worth +5,091 points over his slot; 24 of 66 are worth less than their slot predicted, and 31 are no longer listed.

Biggest overperformers

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Amon-Ra St. Brown WRRookie slot 2.06 · NFL round 4, pick 112 · expected 215	2.06	Round 4, #112	215	8,385	+8,170	—
Ja'Marr Chase WRRookie slot 1.02 · NFL round 1, pick 5 · expected 3,762	1.02	Round 1, #5	3,762	9,168	+5,406	—
Nico Collins WRRookie slot 3.01 · NFL round 3, pick 89 · expected 52	3.01	Round 3, #89	52	5,143	+5,091	—
DeVonta Smith WRRookie slot 1.06 · NFL round 1, pick 10 · expected 1,912	1.06	Round 1, #10	1,912	4,242	+2,330	—
Trevor Lawrence QBRookie slot 1.08 · NFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 1,105	1.08	Round 1, #1	1,105	3,409	+2,304	—
Jaylen Waddle WRRookie slot 1.07 · NFL round 1, pick 6 · expected 1,314	1.07	Round 1, #6	1,314	3,458	+2,144	—
Chuba Hubbard RBRookie slot 2.08 · NFL round 4, pick 126 · expected 117	2.08	Round 4, #126	117	1,168	+1,051	—
Rhamondre Stevenson RBRookie slot 3.02 · NFL round 4, pick 120 · expected 47	3.02	Round 4, #120	47	472	+425	—
Javonte Williams RBRookie slot 1.05 · NFL round 2, pick 35 · expected 2,353	1.05	Round 2, #35	2,353	2,506	+153	—
Davis Mills QBRookie slot 5.04 · NFL round 3, pick 67 · expected 4	5.04	Round 3, #67	4	5	+1	—

Biggest busts

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Trey Sermon RBRookie slot 1.09 · NFL round 3, pick 88 · expected 944	1.09	Round 3, #88	944	1	−943	—
Rashod Bateman WRRookie slot 1.10 · NFL round 1, pick 27 · expected 912	1.10	Round 1, #27	912	62	−850	—
Trey Lance QBRookie slot 1.12 · NFL round 1, pick 3 · expected 702	1.12	Round 1, #3	702	3	−699	—
Elijah Moore WRRookie slot 2.02 · NFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 494	2.02	Round 2, #34	494	2	−492	—
Rondale Moore WRRookie slot 2.03 · NFL round 2, pick 49 · expected 468	2.03	Round 2, #49	468	0	−468	—
Terrace Marshall WRRookie slot 2.04 · NFL round 2, pick 59 · expected 359	2.04	Round 2, #59	359	0	−359	—
Kadarius Toney WRRookie slot 2.07 · NFL round 1, pick 20 · expected 197	2.07	Round 1, #20	197	0	−197	—
Amari Rodgers WRRookie slot 2.10 · NFL round 3, pick 85 · expected 95	2.10	Round 3, #85	95	0	−95	—
Dyami Brown WRRookie slot 2.12 · NFL round 3, pick 82 · expected 64	2.12	Round 3, #82	64	3	−61	—
Tylan Wallace WRRookie slot 3.03 · NFL round 4, pick 131 · expected 36	3.03	Round 4, #131	36	1	−35	—

So what: About 6 in 10 of the 2021 rookies busted; the costliest by slot is Trey Sermon at 1.09.

The whole class

Rookie-draft slot	Player	NFL draft pick	Age	Expected	+1y	+2y	+3y	Now	Best (PPR)	Result
1.01	Najee Harris RBNFL round 1, pick 24 · expected 5,897 · a year later 8,666, two years 4,232, three years 1,526	Round 1, #24	23.1	5,897	8,666	4,232	1,526	9	—	Hit
1.02	Ja'Marr Chase WRNFL round 1, pick 5 · expected 3,762 · a year later 8,955, two years 8,976, three years 9,190	Round 1, #5	21.2	3,762	8,955	8,976	9,190	9,168	—	Hit
1.03	Travis Etienne RBNFL round 1, pick 25 · expected 2,790 · a year later 3,329, two years 6,092, three years 5,531	Round 1, #25	22.3	2,790	3,329	6,092	5,531	2,000	—	Hit
1.04	Kyle Pitts TENFL round 1, pick 4 · expected 2,703 · a year later 7,544, two years 5,442, three years 2,947	Round 1, #4	20.6	2,703	7,544	5,442	2,947	2,106	—	Hit
1.05	Javonte Williams RBNFL round 2, pick 35 · expected 2,353 · a year later 8,076, two years 3,624, three years 2,218	Round 2, #35	21.0	2,353	8,076	3,624	2,218	2,506	—	Hit
1.06	DeVonta Smith WRNFL round 1, pick 10 · expected 1,912 · a year later 2,953, two years 5,650, three years 4,827	Round 1, #10	22.5	1,912	2,953	5,650	4,827	4,242	—	Hit
1.07	Jaylen Waddle WRNFL round 1, pick 6 · expected 1,314 · a year later 5,558, two years 7,403, three years 5,229	Round 1, #6	22.4	1,314	5,558	7,403	5,229	3,458	—	Hit
1.08	Trevor Lawrence QBNFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 1,105 · a year later 936, two years 2,968, three years 1,125	Round 1, #1	21.6	1,105	936	2,968	1,125	3,409	—	Hit
1.09	Trey Sermon RBNFL round 3, pick 88 · expected 944 · a year later 94, two years 5, three years 2	Round 3, #88	22.3	944	94	5	2	1	—	Bust
1.10	Rashod Bateman WRNFL round 1, pick 27 · expected 912 · a year later 2,844, two years 1,218, three years 92	Round 1, #27	21.4	912	2,844	1,218	92	62	—	Bust
1.11	Michael Carter RBNFL round 4, pick 107 · expected 917 · a year later 858, two years 97, three years 12	Round 4, #107	22.0	917	858	97	12	1	—	—
1.12	Trey Lance QBNFL round 1, pick 3 · expected 702 · a year later 974, two years 368, three years 7	Round 1, #3	21.0	702	974	368	7	3	—	Bust
2.01	Justin Fields QBNFL round 1, pick 11 · expected 673 · a year later 813, two years 2,708, three years 154	Round 1, #11	22.2	673	813	2,708	154	16	—	Hit
2.02	Elijah Moore WRNFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 494 · a year later 3,038, two years 800, three years 108	Round 2, #34	21.1	494	3,038	800	108	2	—	Bust
2.03	Rondale Moore WRNFL round 2, pick 49 · expected 468 · a year later 423, two years 307, three years 38	Round 2, #49	20.9	468	423	307	38	0	—	Bust
2.04	Terrace Marshall WRNFL round 2, pick 59 · expected 359 · a year later 73, two years 73, three years 4	Round 2, #59	20.9	359	73	73	4	0	—	Bust
2.05	Zach Wilson QBNFL round 1, pick 2 · expected 298 · a year later 405, two years 4, three years 7	Round 1, #2	21.7	298	405	4	7	2	—	—
2.06	Amon-Ra St. Brown WRNFL round 4, pick 112 · expected 215 · a year later 1,890, two years 6,803, three years 8,605	Round 4, #112	21.5	215	1,890	6,803	8,605	8,385	—	Hit
2.07	Kadarius Toney WRNFL round 1, pick 20 · expected 197 · a year later 644, two years 838, three years 19	Round 1, #20	22.3	197	644	838	19	0	—	Bust
2.08	Chuba Hubbard RBNFL round 4, pick 126 · expected 117 · a year later 141, two years 65, three years 205	Round 4, #126	21.9	117	141	65	205	1,168	—	—
2.09	Pat Freiermuth TENFL round 2, pick 55 · expected 103 · a year later 1,310, two years 1,334, three years 473	Round 2, #55	22.5	103	1,310	1,334	473	63	—	Hit
2.10	Amari Rodgers WRNFL round 3, pick 85 · expected 95 · a year later 17, two years 5, three years 1	Round 3, #85	21.6	95	17	5	1	0	—	Bust
2.11	Mac Jones QBNFL round 1, pick 15 · expected 90 · a year later 376, two years 101, three years 7	Round 1, #15	22.7	90	376	101	7	57	—	—
2.12	Dyami Brown WRNFL round 3, pick 82 · expected 64 · a year later 25, two years 6, three years 2	Round 3, #82	21.5	64	25	6	2	3	—	Bust
3.01	Nico Collins WRNFL round 3, pick 89 · expected 52 · a year later 98, two years 181, three years 3,944	Round 3, #89	22.1	52	98	181	3,944	5,143	—	Hit
3.02	Rhamondre Stevenson RBNFL round 4, pick 120 · expected 47 · a year later 644, two years 3,962, three years 2,223	Round 4, #120	23.2	47	644	3,962	2,223	472	—	Hit
3.03	Tylan Wallace WRNFL round 4, pick 131 · expected 36 · a year later 5, two years 3, three years 1	Round 4, #131	22.0	36	5	3	1	1	—	Bust
3.04	Joshua Palmer WRNFL round 3, pick 77 · expected 32 · a year later 74, two years 117, three years 142	Round 3, #77	21.6	32	74	117	142	0	—	—
3.05	Tutu Atwell WRNFL round 2, pick 57 · expected 28 · a year later 4, two years 4, three years 18	Round 2, #57	21.6	28	4	4	18	6	—	—
3.06	Elijah Mitchell RBNFL round 6, pick 194 · expected 28 · a year later 2,110, two years 287, three years 52	Round 6, #194	23.0	28	2,110	287	52	2	—	—
3.07	Hunter Long TENFL round 3, pick 81 · expected 24 · a year later 7, two years 4, three years 5	Round 3, #81	22.7	24	7	4	5	2	—	Bust
3.08	Jermar Jefferson RBNFL round 7, pick 257 · expected 22 · a year later 10, two years 2, three years 0	Round 7, #257	21.0	22	10	2	0	0	—	Bust
3.09	Brevin Jordan TENFL round 5, pick 147 · expected 21 · a year later 78, two years 5, three years 5	Round 5, #147	20.8	21	78	5	5	1	—	Bust
3.10	Kylin Hill RBNFL round 7, pick 256 · expected 20 · a year later 14, two years 2, three years 0	Round 7, #256	22.7	20	14	2	0	0	—	Bust
3.11	Chris Evans RBNFL round 6, pick 202 · expected 18 · a year later 26, two years 7, three years 3	Round 6, #202	23.6	18	26	7	3	0	—	Bust
3.12	Jaelon Darden WRNFL round 4, pick 129 · expected 16 · a year later 5, two years 2, three years 1	Round 4, #129	22.3	16	5	2	1	0	—	Bust
4.01	Shi Smith WRNFL round 6, pick 204 · expected 15 · a year later 4, two years 4, three years 1	Round 6, #204	22.5	15	4	4	1	0	—	Bust
4.02	Anthony Schwartz WRNFL round 3, pick 91 · expected 13 · a year later 12, two years 4, three years 1	Round 3, #91	20.7	13	12	4	1	0	—	Bust
4.03	Cornell Powell WRNFL round 5, pick 181 · expected 13 · a year later 3, two years 1, three years 0	Round 5, #181	23.5	13	3	1	0	0	—	Bust
4.04	Khalil Herbert RBNFL round 6, pick 217 · expected 11 · a year later 290, two years 916, three years 193	Round 6, #217	23.0	11	290	916	193	2	—	—
4.05	Larry Rountree RBNFL round 6, pick 198 · expected 11 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years 1	Round 6, #198	22.2	11	3	2	1	0	—	Bust
4.06	Kene Nwangwu RBNFL round 4, pick 119 · expected 11 · a year later 10, two years 5, three years 2	Round 4, #119	23.2	11	10	5	2	1	—	Bust
4.07	Dez Fitzpatrick WRNFL round 4, pick 109 · expected 9 · a year later 6, two years 2, three years 0	Round 4, #109	23.4	9	6	2	0	0	—	Bust
4.08	Michael Strachan WRNFL round 7, pick 229 · expected 9 · a year later 5, two years 3, three years 0	Round 7, #229	23.7	9	5	3	0	0	—	Bust
4.09	Ihmir Smith-Marsette WRNFL round 5, pick 157 · expected 9 · a year later 4, two years 3, three years 1	Round 5, #157	21.7	9	4	3	1	0	—	Bust
4.10	Tommy Tremble TENFL round 3, pick 83 · expected 7 · a year later 10, two years 4, three years 6	Round 3, #83	20.9	7	10	4	6	3	—	—
4.11	Marquez Stevenson WRNFL round 6, pick 203 · expected 7 · a year later 16, two years 1, three years 0	Round 6, #203	23.1	7	16	1	0	0	—	Bust
4.12	Seth Williams WRNFL round 6, pick 219 · expected 6 · a year later 6, two years 1, three years 1	Round 6, #219	21.1	6	6	1	1	0	—	Bust
5.01	Gerrid Doaks RBNFL round 7, pick 244 · expected 5 · a year later 4, two years 1, three years 0	Round 7, #244	22.9	5	4	1	0	0	—	Bust
5.02	Jacob Harris WRNFL round 4, pick 141 · expected 5 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 4, #141	24.0	5	0	0	0	0	—	Bust
5.03	Kellen Mond QBNFL round 3, pick 66 · expected 4 · a year later 2, two years 2, three years 2	Round 3, #66	21.9	4	2	2	2	0	—	Bust
5.04	Davis Mills QBNFL round 3, pick 67 · expected 4 · a year later 113, two years 3, three years 2	Round 3, #67	22.5	4	113	3	2	5	—	—
5.05	Kyle Trask QBNFL round 2, pick 64 · expected 4 · a year later 2, two years 4, three years 3	Round 2, #64	23.2	4	2	4	3	0	—	—
5.06	Noah Gray TENFL round 5, pick 162 · expected 4 · a year later 3, two years 6, three years 5	Round 5, #162	22.0	4	3	6	5	3	—	—
5.07	Tre' McKitty TENFL round 3, pick 97 · expected 4 · a year later 4, two years 3, three years 4	Round 3, #97	22.3	4	4	3	4	0	—	—
5.08	Simi Fehoko WRNFL round 5, pick 179 · expected 3 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years 1	Round 5, #179	23.5	3	3	2	1	0	—	Bust
5.09	Dazz Newsome WRNFL round 6, pick 221 · expected 2 · a year later 4, two years 1, three years 0	Round 6, #221	22.0	2	4	1	0	0	—	Bust
5.10	Gary Brightwell RBNFL round 6, pick 196 · expected 2 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years 1	Round 6, #196	23.2	2	3	2	1	0	—	Bust
5.11	Jake Funk RBNFL round 7, pick 233 · expected 2 · a year later 3, two years 1, three years 1	Round 7, #233	23.3	2	3	1	1	0	—	Bust
5.12	Jalen Camp WRNFL round 6, pick 209 · expected 2 · a year later 5, two years 0, three years 0	Round 6, #209	22.8	2	5	0	0	0	—	Bust
6.01	Kylen Granson TENFL round 4, pick 127 · expected 2 · a year later 5, two years 3, three years 4	Round 4, #127	23.1	2	5	3	4	1	—	—
6.02	Luke Farrell TENFL round 5, pick 145 · expected 2 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 5, #145	23.5	2	0	0	0	1	—	Bust
6.03	Sam Ehlinger QBNFL round 6, pick 218 · expected 2 · a year later 2, two years 2, three years 2	Round 6, #218	22.6	2	2	2	2	2	—	—
6.04	Dax Milne WRNFL round 7, pick 258 · expected 1 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #258	21.9	1	0	0	0	0	—	Bust
6.05	Frank Darby WRNFL round 6, pick 187 · expected 1 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years 0	Round 6, #187	23.6	1	3	2	0	0	—	Bust
6.06	Ian Book QBNFL round 4, pick 133 · expected 1 · a year later 2, two years 2, three years 0	Round 4, #133	23.1	1	2	2	0	0	—	Bust

About these numbers

We compare what the market expected from each rookie on rookie-draft day with how he did over his first three NFL seasons. A hit is a top-end season, a bust never had one and lost most of his value, and everyone else is in between. Only classes whose three seasons are over count in the headline numbers. The full method is in our public notes. A dash in a later-year column means that date has not arrived yet, and 0 means he is no longer valued.

Values come from the market, Sleeper season totals and nflverse draft capital.