Class 2020 · first three seasons finished · 2026-11-11

The 2020 dynasty rookie class: expectation vs reality

About 1 in 3 of this class became a hit, about the same as a typical class. Jalen Hurts (QB) is the biggest riser.

Class 2020 means the players picked in the 2020 NFL draft. Hits and busts count their 2020-2022 seasons (all three are finished). "Two years later" means value in 2022.

So what: out of every 10 2020 rookies, 3 hit and 5 busted; Jalen Hurts is the biggest riser.

Superflex1QB

Superflex

Hits, in-betweens and busts, by position

Grouped by position, all picks in the class together.

Class 2020

All
- 3 hit
- 2 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
RB
- 4 hit
- 1 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
WR
- 3 hit
- 2 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

By dynasty rookie-draft round

Grouped by dynasty rookie-draft round: where he went in a 12-team fantasy rookie draft. This is not where he went in the real NFL draft.

Rookie-draft round 1

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 2

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 3

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 4 and later

All
- 1 hit
- 2 in between
- 7 bust
out of every 10 rookies

Hit: a top-24 RB or WR season, or a top-12 QB or TE season, in his first three years.

Bust: never a top-36 season, and worth under a quarter of his draft-day value three years in.

In between: everyone else.

Every 2020 rookie: value now vs his slot expectation (Superflex)

● hit◆ bust● otherDots on the floor: no longer valued (value 0).

So what: Jalen Hurts (2.07) is now worth 10×+ his slot; Justin Jefferson (1.12) is now worth 5.9× his slot; CeeDee Lamb (1.06) is now worth 3.2× his slot; 18 of 61 are worth less than their slot predicted, and 34 are no longer listed.

Biggest overperformers

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Jalen Hurts QBRookie slot 2.07 · NFL round 2, pick 53 · expected 412	2.07	Round 2, #53	412	7,290	+6,878	—
Justin Jefferson WRRookie slot 1.12 · NFL round 1, pick 22 · expected 1,368	1.12	Round 1, #22	1,368	8,027	+6,659	—
CeeDee Lamb WRRookie slot 1.06 · NFL round 1, pick 17 · expected 2,629	1.06	Round 1, #17	2,629	8,514	+5,885	—
Jordan Love QBRookie slot 2.03 · NFL round 1, pick 26 · expected 741	2.03	Round 1, #26	741	6,272	+5,531	—
Justin Herbert QBRookie slot 1.09 · NFL round 1, pick 6 · expected 2,064	1.09	Round 1, #6	2,064	6,229	+4,165	—
Joe Burrow QBRookie slot 1.01 · NFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 5,813	1.01	Round 1, #1	5,813	9,286	+3,473	—
Tee Higgins WRRookie slot 2.06 · NFL round 2, pick 33 · expected 449	2.06	Round 2, #33	449	3,181	+2,732	—
Jonathan Taylor RBRookie slot 1.04 · NFL round 2, pick 41 · expected 3,679	1.04	Round 2, #41	3,679	5,473	+1,794	—
Darnell Mooney WRRookie slot 5.04 · NFL round 5, pick 173 · expected 14	5.04	Round 5, #173	14	31	+17	—
Brycen Hopkins TERookie slot 6.01 · NFL round 4, pick 136 · expected 7	6.01	Round 4, #136	7	0	−7	—

Biggest busts

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Jalen Reagor WRRookie slot 1.11 · NFL round 1, pick 21 · expected 1,351	1.11	Round 1, #21	1,351	0	−1,351	—
Henry Ruggs WRRookie slot 2.01 · NFL round 1, pick 12 · expected 1,119	2.01	Round 1, #12	1,119	0	−1,119	—
Ke'Shawn Vaughn RBRookie slot 2.02 · NFL round 3, pick 76 · expected 924	2.02	Round 3, #76	924	0	−924	—
Denzel Mims WRRookie slot 2.04 · NFL round 2, pick 59 · expected 567	2.04	Round 2, #59	567	0	−567	—
Laviska Shenault WRRookie slot 2.09 · NFL round 2, pick 42 · expected 271	2.09	Round 2, #42	271	0	−271	—
Zack Moss RBRookie slot 2.10 · NFL round 3, pick 86 · expected 240	2.10	Round 3, #86	240	1	−239	—
Bryan Edwards WRRookie slot 2.11 · NFL round 3, pick 81 · expected 147	2.11	Round 3, #81	147	0	−147	—
KJ Hamler WRRookie slot 3.02 · NFL round 2, pick 46 · expected 95	3.02	Round 2, #46	95	0	−95	—
Darrynton Evans RBRookie slot 3.04 · NFL round 3, pick 93 · expected 80	3.04	Round 3, #93	80	0	−80	—
Anthony McFarland RBRookie slot 3.05 · NFL round 4, pick 124 · expected 77	3.05	Round 4, #124	77	0	−77	—

So what: About half of the 2020 rookies busted; the costliest by slot is Jalen Reagor at 1.11.

The whole class

Rookie-draft slot	Player	NFL draft pick	Age	Expected	+1y	+2y	+3y	Now	Best (PPR)	Result
1.01	Joe Burrow QBNFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 5,813 · a year later 6,406, two years 8,965, three years 9,989	Round 1, #1	23.4	5,813	6,406	8,965	9,989	9,286	—	Hit
1.02	Clyde Edwards-Helaire RBNFL round 1, pick 32 · expected 4,195 · a year later 4,023, two years 1,007, three years 92	Round 1, #32	21.0	4,195	4,023	1,007	92	1	—	Hit
1.03	Tua Tagovailoa QBNFL round 1, pick 5 · expected 3,548 · a year later 2,762, two years 2,673, three years 3,994	Round 1, #5	22.1	3,548	2,762	2,673	3,994	700	—	—
1.04	Jonathan Taylor RBNFL round 2, pick 41 · expected 3,679 · a year later 9,826, two years 10,744, three years 8,454	Round 2, #41	21.3	3,679	9,826	10,744	8,454	5,473	—	Hit
1.05	D'Andre Swift RBNFL round 2, pick 35 · expected 2,736 · a year later 6,213, two years 8,574, three years 1,861	Round 2, #35	21.3	2,736	6,213	8,574	1,861	1,801	—	Hit
1.06	CeeDee Lamb WRNFL round 1, pick 17 · expected 2,629 · a year later 5,550, two years 7,915, three years 8,675	Round 1, #17	21.0	2,629	5,550	7,915	8,675	8,514	—	Hit
1.07	J.K. Dobbins RBNFL round 2, pick 55 · expected 2,736 · a year later 5,525, two years 4,197, three years 2,204	Round 2, #55	21.4	2,736	5,525	4,197	2,204	182	—	Hit
1.08	Jerry Jeudy WRNFL round 1, pick 15 · expected 2,624 · a year later 2,268, two years 2,497, three years 2,667	Round 1, #15	21.0	2,624	2,268	2,497	2,667	76	—	Hit
1.09	Justin Herbert QBNFL round 1, pick 6 · expected 2,064 · a year later 7,878, two years 10,420, three years 9,286	Round 1, #6	22.1	2,064	7,878	10,420	9,286	6,229	—	Hit
1.10	Cam Akers RBNFL round 2, pick 52 · expected 1,888 · a year later 6,972, two years 3,662, three years 1,321	Round 2, #52	20.8	1,888	6,972	3,662	1,321	1	—	—
1.11	Jalen Reagor WRNFL round 1, pick 21 · expected 1,351 · a year later 632, two years 22, three years 4	Round 1, #21	21.3	1,351	632	22	4	0	—	Bust
1.12	Justin Jefferson WRNFL round 1, pick 22 · expected 1,368 · a year later 7,878, two years 9,872, three years 10,396	Round 1, #22	20.9	1,368	7,878	9,872	10,396	8,027	—	Hit
2.01	Henry Ruggs WRNFL round 1, pick 12 · expected 1,119 · a year later 459, two years 4, three years 0	Round 1, #12	21.3	1,119	459	4	0	0	—	Bust
2.02	Ke'Shawn Vaughn RBNFL round 3, pick 76 · expected 924 · a year later 98, two years 51, three years 3	Round 3, #76	23.0	924	98	51	3	0	—	Bust
2.03	Jordan Love QBNFL round 1, pick 26 · expected 741 · a year later 283, two years 123, three years 1,682	Round 1, #26	21.5	741	283	123	1,682	6,272	—	—
2.04	Denzel Mims WRNFL round 2, pick 59 · expected 567 · a year later 421, two years 11, three years 4	Round 2, #59	22.5	567	421	11	4	0	—	Bust
2.05	Michael Pittman WRNFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 470 · a year later 734, two years 3,279, three years 2,950	Round 2, #34	22.6	470	734	3,279	2,950	388	—	Hit
2.06	Tee Higgins WRNFL round 2, pick 33 · expected 449 · a year later 3,241, two years 6,013, three years 5,604	Round 2, #33	21.3	449	3,241	6,013	5,604	3,181	—	Hit
2.07	Jalen Hurts QBNFL round 2, pick 53 · expected 412 · a year later 3,461, two years 4,440, three years 10,494	Round 2, #53	21.7	412	3,461	4,440	10,494	7,290	—	Hit
2.08	Brandon Aiyuk WRNFL round 1, pick 25 · expected 284 · a year later 3,049, two years 1,257, three years 2,416	Round 1, #25	22.1	284	3,049	1,257	2,416	187	—	Hit
2.09	Laviska Shenault WRNFL round 2, pick 42 · expected 271 · a year later 1,046, two years 171, three years 21	Round 2, #42	21.6	271	1,046	171	21	0	—	Bust
2.10	Zack Moss RBNFL round 3, pick 86 · expected 240 · a year later 648, two years 41, three years 13	Round 3, #86	22.4	240	648	41	13	1	—	Bust
2.11	Bryan Edwards WRNFL round 3, pick 81 · expected 147 · a year later 123, two years 50, three years 4	Round 3, #81	21.4	147	123	50	4	0	—	Bust
2.12	AJ Dillon RBNFL round 2, pick 62 · expected 140 · a year later 890, two years 1,978, three years 876	Round 2, #62	22.0	140	890	1,978	876	1	—	Hit
3.01	Antonio Gibson RBNFL round 3, pick 66 · expected 100 · a year later 5,161, two years 3,803, three years 462	Round 3, #66	21.8	100	5,161	3,803	462	2	—	Hit
3.02	KJ Hamler WRNFL round 2, pick 46 · expected 95 · a year later 100, two years 59, three years 23	Round 2, #46	20.8	95	100	59	23	0	—	Bust
3.03	Chase Claypool WRNFL round 2, pick 49 · expected 88 · a year later 2,247, two years 941, three years 172	Round 2, #49	21.8	88	2,247	941	172	0	—	Hit
3.04	Darrynton Evans RBNFL round 3, pick 93 · expected 80 · a year later 58, two years 11, three years 3	Round 3, #93	21.8	80	58	11	3	0	—	Bust
3.05	Anthony McFarland RBNFL round 4, pick 124 · expected 77 · a year later 44, two years 12, three years 2	Round 4, #124	21.1	77	44	12	2	0	—	Bust
3.06	Cole Kmet TENFL round 2, pick 43 · expected 72 · a year later 359, two years 471, three years 383	Round 2, #43	21.1	72	359	471	383	17	—	Hit
3.07	Joshua Kelley RBNFL round 4, pick 112 · expected 65 · a year later 78, two years 10, three years 29	Round 4, #112	22.4	65	78	10	29	0	—	—
3.08	Adam Trautman TENFL round 3, pick 105 · expected 56 · a year later 223, two years 68, three years 6	Round 3, #105	23.2	56	223	68	6	3	—	Bust
3.09	Van Jefferson WRNFL round 2, pick 57 · expected 57 · a year later 79, two years 122, three years 29	Round 2, #57	23.7	57	79	122	29	1	—	—
3.10	Devin Duvernay WRNFL round 3, pick 92 · expected 55 · a year later 22, two years 17, three years 20	Round 3, #92	22.6	55	22	17	20	0	—	Bust
3.11	Lynn Bowden WRNFL round 3, pick 80 · expected 44 · a year later 52, two years 6, three years 2	Round 3, #80	22.5	44	52	6	2	0	—	Bust
3.12	Antonio Gandy-Golden WRNFL round 4, pick 142 · expected 41 · a year later 9, two years 9, three years 0	Round 4, #142	22.0	41	9	9	0	0	—	Bust
4.01	Tyler Johnson WRNFL round 5, pick 161 · expected 40 · a year later 48, two years 17, three years 3	Round 5, #161	21.7	40	48	17	3	1	—	Bust
4.02	Devin Asiasi TENFL round 3, pick 91 · expected 36 · a year later 6, two years 10, three years 2	Round 3, #91	22.7	36	6	10	2	0	—	Bust
4.03	Eno Benjamin RBNFL round 7, pick 222 · expected 34 · a year later 19, two years 28, three years 9	Round 7, #222	21.0	34	19	28	9	0	—	Bust
4.04	DeeJay Dallas RBNFL round 4, pick 144 · expected 30 · a year later 24, two years 7, three years 4	Round 4, #144	21.6	30	24	7	4	1	—	Bust
4.05	La'Mical Perine RBNFL round 4, pick 120 · expected 29 · a year later 54, two years 9, three years 2	Round 4, #120	22.2	29	54	9	2	0	—	Bust
4.06	Isaiah Coulter WRNFL round 5, pick 171 · expected 27 · a year later 6, two years 3, three years 0	Round 5, #171	21.6	27	6	3	0	0	—	Bust
4.07	Jason Huntley RBNFL round 5, pick 172 · expected 22 · a year later 4, two years 3, three years 2	Round 5, #172	22.0	22	4	3	2	0	—	Bust
4.08	Gabe Davis WRNFL round 4, pick 128 · expected 21 · a year later 273, two years 854, three years 497	Round 4, #128	21.1	21	273	854	497	0	—	—
4.09	Quintez Cephus WRNFL round 5, pick 166 · expected 20 · a year later 44, two years 19, three years 3	Round 5, #166	22.1	20	44	19	3	0	—	Bust
4.10	Isaiah Hodgins WRNFL round 6, pick 207 · expected 17 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years 95	Round 6, #207	21.5	17	3	2	95	1	—	—
4.11	Raymond Calais RBNFL round 7, pick 245 · expected 16 · a year later 4, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #245	22.1	16	4	0	0	0	—	Bust
4.12	Donovan Peoples-Jones WRNFL round 6, pick 187 · expected 16 · a year later 39, two years 86, three years 191	Round 6, #187	21.2	16	39	86	191	0	—	—
5.01	Albert Okwuegbunam TENFL round 4, pick 118 · expected 15 · a year later 24, two years 419, three years 18	Round 4, #118	22.0	15	24	419	18	0	—	—
5.02	Joe Reed WRNFL round 5, pick 151 · expected 14 · a year later 4, two years 2, three years 0	Round 5, #151	22.3	14	4	2	0	0	—	Bust
5.03	John Hightower WRNFL round 5, pick 168 · expected 14 · a year later 4, two years 6, three years 0	Round 5, #168	23.9	14	4	6	0	0	—	Bust
5.04	Darnell Mooney WRNFL round 5, pick 173 · expected 14 · a year later 366, two years 1,624, three years 378	Round 5, #173	22.5	14	366	1,624	378	31	—	Hit
5.05	Collin Johnson WRNFL round 5, pick 165 · expected 12 · a year later 16, two years 3, three years 2	Round 5, #165	22.6	12	16	3	2	0	—	Bust
5.06	KJ Hill WRNFL round 7, pick 220 · expected 12 · a year later 4, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #220	22.6	12	4	0	0	0	—	Bust
5.07	Dalton Keene TENFL round 3, pick 101 · expected 12 · a year later 4, two years 3, three years 0	Round 3, #101	21.0	12	4	3	0	0	—	Bust
5.08	Jacob Eason QBNFL round 4, pick 122 · expected 12 · a year later 17, two years 17, three years 2	Round 4, #122	22.4	12	17	17	2	0	—	Bust
5.09	K.J. Osborn WRNFL round 5, pick 176 · expected 12 · a year later 0, two years 54, three years 99	Round 5, #176	22.9	12	0	54	99	0	—	—
5.10	Jake Fromm QBNFL round 5, pick 167 · expected 11 · a year later 9, two years 2, three years 0	Round 5, #167	21.7	11	9	2	0	0	—	Bust
5.11	Harrison Bryant TENFL round 4, pick 115 · expected 10 · a year later 49, two years 37, three years 9	Round 4, #115	22.0	10	49	37	9	2	—	—
5.12	Cole McDonald QBNFL round 7, pick 224 · expected 8 · a year later 4, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #224	21.9	8	4	0	0	0	—	Bust
6.01	Brycen Hopkins TENFL round 4, pick 136 · expected 7 · a year later 7, two years 7, three years 2	Round 4, #136	23.1	7	7	7	2	0	—	Bust

1QB

Hits, in-betweens and busts, by position

Grouped by position, all picks in the class together.

Class 2020

All
- 3 hit
- 2 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
RB
- 3 hit
- 1 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
WR
- 3 hit
- 2 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

By dynasty rookie-draft round

Grouped by dynasty rookie-draft round: where he went in a 12-team fantasy rookie draft. This is not where he went in the real NFL draft.

Rookie-draft round 1

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 2

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 3

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 4 and later

All
- 1 hit
- 4 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies

Hit: a top-24 RB or WR season, or a top-12 QB or TE season, in his first three years.

Bust: never a top-36 season, and worth under a quarter of his draft-day value three years in.

In between: everyone else.

Every 2020 rookie: value now vs his slot expectation (1QB)

● hit◆ bust● otherDots on the floor: no longer valued (value 0).

So what: Justin Jefferson (1.09) is now worth 4.5× his slot; CeeDee Lamb (1.04) is now worth 2.7× his slot; Joe Burrow (2.03) is now worth 6.7× his slot; 17 of 61 are worth less than their slot predicted, and 34 are no longer listed.

Biggest overperformers

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Justin Jefferson WRRookie slot 1.09 · NFL round 1, pick 22 · expected 1,698	1.09	Round 1, #22	1,698	7,615	+5,917	—
CeeDee Lamb WRRookie slot 1.04 · NFL round 1, pick 17 · expected 2,921	1.04	Round 1, #17	2,921	8,019	+5,098	—
Joe Burrow QBRookie slot 2.03 · NFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 580	2.03	Round 1, #1	580	3,870	+3,290	—
Jalen Hurts QBRookie slot 4.06 · NFL round 2, pick 53 · expected 22	4.06	Round 2, #53	22	2,766	+2,744	—
Tee Higgins WRRookie slot 2.02 · NFL round 2, pick 33 · expected 776	2.02	Round 2, #33	776	3,268	+2,492	—
Jonathan Taylor RBRookie slot 1.02 · NFL round 2, pick 41 · expected 3,745	1.02	Round 2, #41	3,745	6,034	+2,289	—
Jordan Love QBRookie slot 4.03 · NFL round 1, pick 26 · expected 28	4.03	Round 1, #26	28	1,642	+1,614	—
Justin Herbert QBRookie slot 3.01 · NFL round 1, pick 6 · expected 118	3.01	Round 1, #6	118	1,165	+1,047	—
Michael Pittman WRRookie slot 2.01 · NFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 846	2.01	Round 2, #34	846	1,051	+205	—
Darnell Mooney WRRookie slot 5.04 · NFL round 5, pick 173 · expected 5	5.04	Round 5, #173	5	24	+19	—

Biggest busts

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Jalen Reagor WRRookie slot 1.08 · NFL round 1, pick 21 · expected 1,726	1.08	Round 1, #21	1,726	0	−1,726	—
Henry Ruggs WRRookie slot 1.10 · NFL round 1, pick 12 · expected 1,421	1.10	Round 1, #12	1,421	0	−1,421	—
Ke'Shawn Vaughn RBRookie slot 1.11 · NFL round 3, pick 76 · expected 1,114	1.11	Round 3, #76	1,114	0	−1,114	—
Denzel Mims WRRookie slot 1.12 · NFL round 2, pick 59 · expected 953	1.12	Round 2, #59	953	0	−953	—
Laviska Shenault WRRookie slot 2.05 · NFL round 2, pick 42 · expected 522	2.05	Round 2, #42	522	0	−522	—
Zack Moss RBRookie slot 2.06 · NFL round 3, pick 86 · expected 421	2.06	Round 3, #86	421	1	−420	—
Bryan Edwards WRRookie slot 2.08 · NFL round 3, pick 81 · expected 251	2.08	Round 3, #81	251	0	−251	—
KJ Hamler WRRookie slot 2.10 · NFL round 2, pick 46 · expected 144	2.10	Round 2, #46	144	0	−144	—
Darrynton Evans RBRookie slot 3.02 · NFL round 3, pick 93 · expected 106	3.02	Round 3, #93	106	0	−106	—
Anthony McFarland RBRookie slot 3.03 · NFL round 4, pick 124 · expected 98	3.03	Round 4, #124	98	0	−98	—

So what: About half of the 2020 rookies busted; the costliest by slot is Jalen Reagor at 1.08.

The whole class

Rookie-draft slot	Player	NFL draft pick	Age	Expected	+1y	+2y	+3y	Now	Best (PPR)	Result
1.01	Clyde Edwards-Helaire RBNFL round 1, pick 32 · expected 5,613 · a year later 4,302, two years 1,195, three years 81	Round 1, #32	21.0	5,613	4,302	1,195	81	1	—	Hit
1.02	Jonathan Taylor RBNFL round 2, pick 41 · expected 3,745 · a year later 8,747, two years 9,255, three years 8,019	Round 2, #41	21.3	3,745	8,747	9,255	8,019	6,034	—	Hit
1.03	D'Andre Swift RBNFL round 2, pick 35 · expected 2,731 · a year later 6,251, two years 8,114, three years 2,233	Round 2, #35	21.3	2,731	6,251	8,114	2,233	1,962	—	Hit
1.04	CeeDee Lamb WRNFL round 1, pick 17 · expected 2,921 · a year later 5,519, two years 7,561, three years 8,366	Round 1, #17	21.0	2,921	5,519	7,561	8,366	8,019	—	Hit
1.05	Jerry Jeudy WRNFL round 1, pick 15 · expected 2,907 · a year later 2,670, two years 2,805, three years 2,714	Round 1, #15	21.0	2,907	2,670	2,805	2,714	83	—	Hit
1.06	J.K. Dobbins RBNFL round 2, pick 55 · expected 2,758 · a year later 5,663, two years 4,541, three years 2,408	Round 2, #55	21.4	2,758	5,663	4,541	2,408	168	—	Hit
1.07	Cam Akers RBNFL round 2, pick 52 · expected 2,151 · a year later 6,723, two years 3,934, three years 1,484	Round 2, #52	20.8	2,151	6,723	3,934	1,484	1	—	—
1.08	Jalen Reagor WRNFL round 1, pick 21 · expected 1,726 · a year later 728, two years 11, three years 4	Round 1, #21	21.3	1,726	728	11	4	0	—	Bust
1.09	Justin Jefferson WRNFL round 1, pick 22 · expected 1,698 · a year later 7,508, two years 8,872, three years 9,211	Round 1, #22	20.9	1,698	7,508	8,872	9,211	7,615	—	Hit
1.10	Henry Ruggs WRNFL round 1, pick 12 · expected 1,421 · a year later 508, two years 4, three years 0	Round 1, #12	21.3	1,421	508	4	0	0	—	Bust
1.11	Ke'Shawn Vaughn RBNFL round 3, pick 76 · expected 1,114 · a year later 96, two years 43, three years 5	Round 3, #76	23.0	1,114	96	43	5	0	—	Bust
1.12	Denzel Mims WRNFL round 2, pick 59 · expected 953 · a year later 448, two years 5, three years 5	Round 2, #59	22.5	953	448	5	5	0	—	Bust
2.01	Michael Pittman WRNFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 846 · a year later 832, two years 3,658, three years 2,982	Round 2, #34	22.6	846	832	3,658	2,982	1,051	—	Hit
2.02	Tee Higgins WRNFL round 2, pick 33 · expected 776 · a year later 3,641, two years 6,006, three years 5,922	Round 2, #33	21.3	776	3,641	6,006	5,922	3,268	—	Hit
2.03	Joe Burrow QBNFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 580 · a year later 1,596, two years 2,614, three years 4,114	Round 1, #1	23.4	580	1,596	2,614	4,114	3,870	—	Hit
2.04	Brandon Aiyuk WRNFL round 1, pick 25 · expected 578 · a year later 3,458, two years 1,473, three years 2,824	Round 1, #25	22.1	578	3,458	1,473	2,824	233	—	Hit
2.05	Laviska Shenault WRNFL round 2, pick 42 · expected 522 · a year later 1,179, two years 166, three years 12	Round 2, #42	21.6	522	1,179	166	12	0	—	Bust
2.06	Zack Moss RBNFL round 3, pick 86 · expected 421 · a year later 718, two years 27, three years 7	Round 3, #86	22.4	421	718	27	7	1	—	Bust
2.07	Tua Tagovailoa QBNFL round 1, pick 5 · expected 382 · a year later 562, two years 509, three years 765	Round 1, #5	22.1	382	562	509	765	36	—	—
2.08	Bryan Edwards WRNFL round 3, pick 81 · expected 251 · a year later 108, two years 31, three years 4	Round 3, #81	21.4	251	108	31	4	0	—	Bust
2.09	AJ Dillon RBNFL round 2, pick 62 · expected 203 · a year later 1,026, two years 2,271, three years 1,051	Round 2, #62	22.0	203	1,026	2,271	1,051	1	—	Hit
2.10	KJ Hamler WRNFL round 2, pick 46 · expected 144 · a year later 78, two years 38, three years 14	Round 2, #46	20.8	144	78	38	14	0	—	Bust
2.11	Chase Claypool WRNFL round 2, pick 49 · expected 140 · a year later 2,542, two years 1,063, three years 164	Round 2, #49	21.8	140	2,542	1,063	164	0	—	Hit
2.12	Antonio Gibson RBNFL round 3, pick 66 · expected 128 · a year later 5,315, two years 4,056, three years 536	Round 3, #66	21.8	128	5,315	4,056	536	2	—	Hit
3.01	Justin Herbert QBNFL round 1, pick 6 · expected 118 · a year later 2,096, two years 3,481, three years 3,329	Round 1, #6	22.1	118	2,096	3,481	3,329	1,165	—	Hit
3.02	Darrynton Evans RBNFL round 3, pick 93 · expected 106 · a year later 41, two years 5, three years 3	Round 3, #93	21.8	106	41	5	3	0	—	Bust
3.03	Anthony McFarland RBNFL round 4, pick 124 · expected 98 · a year later 33, two years 6, three years 2	Round 4, #124	21.1	98	33	6	2	0	—	Bust
3.04	Van Jefferson WRNFL round 2, pick 57 · expected 78 · a year later 59, two years 108, three years 20	Round 2, #57	23.7	78	59	108	20	1	—	—
3.05	Devin Duvernay WRNFL round 3, pick 92 · expected 76 · a year later 14, two years 7, three years 12	Round 3, #92	22.6	76	14	7	12	0	—	Bust
3.06	Joshua Kelley RBNFL round 4, pick 112 · expected 78 · a year later 60, two years 5, three years 17	Round 4, #112	22.4	78	60	5	17	0	—	Bust
3.07	Cole Kmet TENFL round 2, pick 43 · expected 67 · a year later 390, two years 519, three years 374	Round 2, #43	21.1	67	390	519	374	9	—	Hit
3.08	Lynn Bowden WRNFL round 3, pick 80 · expected 54 · a year later 38, two years 4, three years 2	Round 3, #80	22.5	54	38	4	2	0	—	Bust
3.09	Antonio Gandy-Golden WRNFL round 4, pick 142 · expected 53 · a year later 5, two years 3, three years 0	Round 4, #142	22.0	53	5	3	0	0	—	Bust
3.10	Adam Trautman TENFL round 3, pick 105 · expected 47 · a year later 219, two years 50, three years 3	Round 3, #105	23.2	47	219	50	3	2	—	Bust
3.11	Tyler Johnson WRNFL round 5, pick 161 · expected 46 · a year later 29, two years 7, three years 3	Round 5, #161	21.7	46	29	7	3	1	—	Bust
3.12	Eno Benjamin RBNFL round 7, pick 222 · expected 33 · a year later 11, two years 16, three years 5	Round 7, #222	21.0	33	11	16	5	0	—	Bust
4.01	Isaiah Coulter WRNFL round 5, pick 171 · expected 31 · a year later 5, two years 3, three years 0	Round 5, #171	21.6	31	5	3	0	0	—	Bust
4.02	DeeJay Dallas RBNFL round 4, pick 144 · expected 28 · a year later 15, two years 3, three years 5	Round 4, #144	21.6	28	15	3	5	1	—	Bust
4.03	Jordan Love QBNFL round 1, pick 26 · expected 28 · a year later 18, two years 4, three years 232	Round 1, #26	21.5	28	18	4	232	1,642	—	—
4.04	La'Mical Perine RBNFL round 4, pick 120 · expected 24 · a year later 44, two years 5, three years 2	Round 4, #120	22.2	24	44	5	2	0	—	Bust
4.05	Devin Asiasi TENFL round 3, pick 91 · expected 23 · a year later 3, two years 5, three years 2	Round 3, #91	22.7	23	3	5	2	0	—	Bust
4.06	Jalen Hurts QBNFL round 2, pick 53 · expected 22 · a year later 816, two years 893, three years 4,573	Round 2, #53	21.7	22	816	893	4,573	2,766	—	Hit
4.07	Gabe Davis WRNFL round 4, pick 128 · expected 15 · a year later 270, two years 998, three years 598	Round 4, #128	21.1	15	270	998	598	0	—	—
4.08	Quintez Cephus WRNFL round 5, pick 166 · expected 13 · a year later 27, two years 10, three years 3	Round 5, #166	22.1	13	27	10	3	0	—	Bust
4.09	Albert Okwuegbunam TENFL round 4, pick 118 · expected 11 · a year later 13, two years 464, three years 9	Round 4, #118	22.0	11	13	464	9	0	—	—
4.10	Isaiah Hodgins WRNFL round 6, pick 207 · expected 10 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years 78	Round 6, #207	21.5	10	3	2	78	1	—	—
4.11	Donovan Peoples-Jones WRNFL round 6, pick 187 · expected 8 · a year later 24, two years 63, three years 178	Round 6, #187	21.2	8	24	63	178	0	—	—
4.12	Dalton Keene TENFL round 3, pick 101 · expected 7 · a year later 4, two years 3, three years 0	Round 3, #101	21.0	7	4	3	0	0	—	Bust
5.01	John Hightower WRNFL round 5, pick 168 · expected 6 · a year later 5, two years 2, three years 0	Round 5, #168	23.9	6	5	2	0	0	—	Bust
5.02	Jason Huntley RBNFL round 5, pick 172 · expected 6 · a year later 3, two years 3, three years 2	Round 5, #172	22.0	6	3	3	2	0	—	Bust
5.03	Joe Reed WRNFL round 5, pick 151 · expected 6 · a year later 4, two years 2, three years 0	Round 5, #151	22.3	6	4	2	0	0	—	Bust
5.04	Darnell Mooney WRNFL round 5, pick 173 · expected 5 · a year later 401, two years 1,859, three years 417	Round 5, #173	22.5	5	401	1,859	417	24	—	Hit
5.05	Harrison Bryant TENFL round 4, pick 115 · expected 5 · a year later 28, two years 20, three years 4	Round 4, #115	22.0	5	28	20	4	1	—	—
5.06	Collin Johnson WRNFL round 5, pick 165 · expected 4 · a year later 8, two years 5, three years 2	Round 5, #165	22.6	4	8	5	2	0	—	—
5.07	KJ Hill WRNFL round 7, pick 220 · expected 4 · a year later 4, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #220	22.6	4	4	0	0	0	—	Bust
5.08	K.J. Osborn WRNFL round 5, pick 176 · expected 3 · a year later 0, two years 35, three years 75	Round 5, #176	22.9	3	0	35	75	0	—	—
5.09	Brycen Hopkins TENFL round 4, pick 136 · expected 3 · a year later 4, two years 5, three years 2	Round 4, #136	23.1	3	4	5	2	0	—	—
5.10	Jacob Eason QBNFL round 4, pick 122 · expected 2 · a year later 4, two years 2, three years 2	Round 4, #122	22.4	2	4	2	2	0	—	—
5.11	Raymond Calais RBNFL round 7, pick 245 · expected 2 · a year later 3, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #245	22.1	2	3	0	0	0	—	Bust
5.12	Jake Fromm QBNFL round 5, pick 167 · expected 2 · a year later 4, two years 2, three years 0	Round 5, #167	21.7	2	4	2	0	0	—	Bust
6.01	Cole McDonald QBNFL round 7, pick 224 · expected 1 · a year later 3, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #224	21.9	1	3	0	0	0	—	Bust

About these numbers

We compare what the market expected from each rookie on rookie-draft day with how he did over his first three NFL seasons. A hit is a top-end season, a bust never had one and lost most of his value, and everyone else is in between. Only classes whose three seasons are over count in the headline numbers. The full method is in our public notes. A dash in a later-year column means that date has not arrived yet, and 0 means he is no longer valued.

Values come from the market, Sleeper season totals and nflverse draft capital.