Class 2019 · first three seasons finished · 2026-11-11

The 2019 dynasty rookie class: expectation vs reality

About 1 in 5 of this class became a hit, about the same as a typical class. A.J. Brown (WR) is the biggest riser.

Class 2019 means the players picked in the 2019 NFL draft. Hits and busts count their 2019-2021 seasons (all three are finished). "Two years later" means value in 2021.

So what: out of every 10 2019 rookies, 2 hit and 6 busted; A.J. Brown is the biggest riser.

1QB

Hits, in-betweens and busts, by position

Grouped by position, all picks in the class together.

Class 2019

All
- 2 hit
- 2 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
RB
- 2 hit
- 2 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
WR
- 3 hit
- 1 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies
TE
- 2 hit
- 2 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies

By dynasty rookie-draft round

Grouped by dynasty rookie-draft round: where he went in a 12-team fantasy rookie draft. This is not where he went in the real NFL draft.

Rookie-draft round 1

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 2

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 3

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 4 and later

All
- 1 hit
- 3 in between
- 6 bust
out of every 10 rookies

Hit: a top-24 RB or WR season, or a top-12 QB or TE season, in his first three years.

Bust: never a top-36 season, and worth under a quarter of his draft-day value three years in.

In between: everyone else.

Every 2019 rookie: value now vs his slot expectation (1QB)

● hit◆ bust● otherDots on the floor: no longer valued (value 0).

So what: A.J. Brown (1.05) is now worth 3.8× his slot; DK Metcalf (1.06) is now worth 2.4× his slot; Terry McLaurin (3.08) is now worth +657 points over his slot; 17 of 77 are worth less than their slot predicted, and 51 are no longer listed.

Biggest overperformers

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
A.J. Brown WRRookie slot 1.05 · NFL round 2, pick 51 · expected 909	1.05	Round 2, #51	909	3,425	+2,516	—
DK Metcalf WRRookie slot 1.06 · NFL round 2, pick 64 · expected 788	1.06	Round 2, #64	788	1,863	+1,075	—
Terry McLaurin WRRookie slot 3.08 · NFL round 3, pick 76 · expected 49	3.08	Round 3, #76	49	706	+657	—
Tony Pollard RBRookie slot 5.06 · NFL round 4, pick 128 · expected 6	5.06	Round 4, #128	6	377	+371	—
Daniel Jones QBRookie slot 4.07 · NFL round 1, pick 6 · expected 14	4.07	Round 1, #6	14	221	+207	—
Gardner Minshew QBRookie slot 5.05 · NFL round 6, pick 178 · expected 7	5.05	Round 6, #178	7	16	+9	—
Darius Slayton WRRookie slot 6.11 · NFL round 5, pick 171 · expected 3	6.11	Round 5, #171	3	10	+7	—
Drew Lock QBRookie slot 4.02 · NFL round 2, pick 42 · expected 21	4.02	Round 2, #42	21	27	+6	—
Ty Johnson RBRookie slot 7.03 · NFL round 6, pick 186 · expected 2	7.03	Round 6, #186	2	6	+4	—
Drew Sample TERookie slot 6.12 · NFL round 2, pick 52 · expected 2	6.12	Round 2, #52	2	1	−1	—

Biggest busts

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Parris Campbell WRRookie slot 1.08 · NFL round 2, pick 59 · expected 579	1.08	Round 2, #59	579	0	−579	—
Mecole Hardman WRRookie slot 1.11 · NFL round 2, pick 56 · expected 465	1.11	Round 2, #56	465	0	−465	—
Andy Isabella WRRookie slot 2.01 · NFL round 2, pick 62 · expected 409	2.01	Round 2, #62	409	0	−409	—
Hakeem Butler WRRookie slot 2.04 · NFL round 4, pick 103 · expected 321	2.04	Round 4, #103	321	0	−321	—
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside WRRookie slot 2.05 · NFL round 2, pick 57 · expected 287	2.05	Round 2, #57	287	0	−287	—
Justice Hill RBRookie slot 2.07 · NFL round 4, pick 113 · expected 213	2.07	Round 4, #113	213	6	−207	—
Kelvin Harmon WRRookie slot 2.12 · NFL round 6, pick 206 · expected 81	2.12	Round 6, #206	81	0	−81	—
Miles Boykin WRRookie slot 3.01 · NFL round 3, pick 93 · expected 73	3.01	Round 3, #93	73	0	−73	—
Jace Sternberger TERookie slot 3.03 · NFL round 3, pick 75 · expected 63	3.03	Round 3, #75	63	0	−63	—
Darwin Thompson RBRookie slot 3.04 · NFL round 6, pick 214 · expected 61	3.04	Round 6, #214	61	0	−61	—

So what: About 6 in 10 of the 2019 rookies busted; the costliest by slot is Parris Campbell at 1.08.

The whole class

Rookie-draft slot	Player	NFL draft pick	Age	Expected	+1y	+2y	+3y	Now	Best (PPR)	Result
1.01	Josh Jacobs RBNFL round 1, pick 24 · expected 3,019 · a year later 6,236, two years 3,024, three years 2,265	Round 1, #24	21.2	3,019	6,236	3,024	2,265	701	—	Hit
1.02	Miles Sanders RBNFL round 2, pick 53 · expected 1,338 · a year later 5,771, two years 3,624, three years 1,310	Round 2, #53	22.0	1,338	5,771	3,624	1,310	2	—	Hit
1.03	N'Keal Harry WRNFL round 1, pick 32 · expected 1,249 · a year later 1,332, two years 42, three years 5	Round 1, #32	21.4	1,249	1,332	42	5	0	—	—
1.04	David Montgomery RBNFL round 3, pick 73 · expected 1,120 · a year later 2,385, two years 2,838, three years 3,089	Round 3, #73	21.9	1,120	2,385	2,838	3,089	370	—	Hit
1.05	A.J. Brown WRNFL round 2, pick 51 · expected 909 · a year later 5,493, two years 7,852, three years 6,915	Round 2, #51	21.8	909	5,493	7,852	6,915	3,425	—	Hit
1.06	DK Metcalf WRNFL round 2, pick 64 · expected 788 · a year later 4,114, two years 7,455, three years 5,744	Round 2, #64	21.4	788	4,114	7,455	5,744	1,863	—	Hit
1.07	Marquise Brown WRNFL round 1, pick 25 · expected 631 · a year later 1,745, two years 695, three years 1,829	Round 1, #25	21.9	631	1,745	695	1,829	0	—	Hit
1.08	Parris Campbell WRNFL round 2, pick 59 · expected 579 · a year later 435, two years 240, three years 22	Round 2, #59	21.8	579	435	240	22	0	—	Bust
1.09	T.J. Hockenson TENFL round 1, pick 8 · expected 524 · a year later 1,226, two years 2,181, three years 2,096	Round 1, #8	21.8	524	1,226	2,181	2,096	333	—	Hit
1.10	Deebo Samuel WRNFL round 2, pick 36 · expected 468 · a year later 2,940, two years 1,533, three years 6,006	Round 2, #36	23.3	468	2,940	1,533	6,006	188	—	Hit
1.11	Mecole Hardman WRNFL round 2, pick 56 · expected 465 · a year later 912, two years 196, three years 63	Round 2, #56	21.1	465	912	196	63	0	—	Bust
1.12	Kyler Murray QBNFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 468 · a year later 2,430, two years 3,147, three years 2,424	Round 1, #1	21.7	468	2,430	3,147	2,424	355	—	Hit
2.01	Andy Isabella WRNFL round 2, pick 62 · expected 409 · a year later 187, two years 9, three years 5	Round 2, #62	22.4	409	187	9	5	0	—	Bust
2.02	Damien Harris RBNFL round 3, pick 87 · expected 358 · a year later 192, two years 969, three years 1,075	Round 3, #87	22.2	358	192	969	1,075	0	—	Hit
2.03	Darrell Henderson RBNFL round 3, pick 70 · expected 349 · a year later 652, two years 308, three years 384	Round 3, #70	21.7	349	652	308	384	0	—	—
2.04	Hakeem Butler WRNFL round 4, pick 103 · expected 321 · a year later 41, two years 5, three years 4	Round 4, #103	22.9	321	41	5	4	0	—	Bust
2.05	J.J. Arcega-Whiteside WRNFL round 2, pick 57 · expected 287 · a year later 161, two years 6, three years 4	Round 2, #57	22.3	287	161	6	4	0	—	Bust
2.06	Noah Fant TENFL round 1, pick 20 · expected 284 · a year later 1,360, two years 1,588, three years 633	Round 1, #20	21.4	284	1,360	1,588	633	4	—	Hit
2.07	Justice Hill RBNFL round 4, pick 113 · expected 213 · a year later 177, two years 8, three years 4	Round 4, #113	21.4	213	177	8	4	6	—	Bust
2.08	Devin Singletary RBNFL round 3, pick 74 · expected 154 · a year later 2,181, two years 445, three years 653	Round 3, #74	21.6	154	2,181	445	653	6	—	Hit
2.09	Irv Smith TENFL round 2, pick 50 · expected 124 · a year later 370, two years 813, three years 315	Round 2, #50	20.7	124	370	813	315	0	—	—
2.10	Diontae Johnson WRNFL round 3, pick 66 · expected 104 · a year later 777, two years 2,872, three years 4,488	Round 3, #66	22.8	104	777	2,872	4,488	1	—	Hit
2.11	Alexander Mattison RBNFL round 3, pick 102 · expected 81 · a year later 462, two years 312, three years 492	Round 3, #102	20.9	81	462	312	492	1	—	—
2.12	Kelvin Harmon WRNFL round 6, pick 206 · expected 81 · a year later 62, two years 6, three years 3	Round 6, #206	22.4	81	62	6	3	0	—	Bust
3.01	Miles Boykin WRNFL round 3, pick 93 · expected 73 · a year later 94, two years 5, three years 6	Round 3, #93	22.5	73	94	5	6	0	—	Bust
3.02	Dwayne Haskins QBNFL round 1, pick 15 · expected 66 · a year later 93, two years 5, three years 0	Round 1, #15	22.0	66	93	5	0	0	—	—
3.03	Jace Sternberger TENFL round 3, pick 75 · expected 63 · a year later 126, two years 4, three years 7	Round 3, #75	22.8	63	126	4	7	0	—	Bust
3.04	Darwin Thompson RBNFL round 6, pick 214 · expected 61 · a year later 49, two years 5, three years 3	Round 6, #214	22.2	61	49	5	3	0	—	Bust
3.05	Benny Snell RBNFL round 4, pick 122 · expected 60 · a year later 52, two years 22, three years 4	Round 4, #122	21.2	60	52	22	4	0	—	Bust
3.06	Jalen Hurd WRNFL round 3, pick 67 · expected 57 · a year later 71, two years 4, three years 3	Round 3, #67	23.3	57	71	4	3	0	—	Bust
3.07	Bryce Love RBNFL round 4, pick 112 · expected 53 · a year later 32, two years 4, three years 0	Round 4, #112	21.8	53	32	4	0	0	—	Bust
3.08	Terry McLaurin WRNFL round 3, pick 76 · expected 49 · a year later 2,898, two years 4,804, three years 3,650	Round 3, #76	23.6	49	2,898	4,804	3,650	706	—	Hit
3.09	Rodney Anderson RBNFL round 6, pick 211 · expected 47 · a year later 9, two years 2, three years 0	Round 6, #211	22.6	47	9	2	0	0	—	Bust
3.10	Ryquell Armstead RBNFL round 5, pick 140 · expected 37 · a year later 94, two years 3, three years 0	Round 5, #140	22.5	37	94	3	0	0	—	Bust
3.11	Josh Oliver TENFL round 3, pick 69 · expected 31 · a year later 22, two years 5, three years 3	Round 3, #69	22.1	31	22	5	3	2	—	Bust
3.12	Trayveon Williams RBNFL round 6, pick 182 · expected 26 · a year later 17, two years 5, three years 3	Round 6, #182	21.5	26	17	5	3	0	—	Bust
4.01	Riley Ridley WRNFL round 4, pick 126 · expected 24 · a year later 10, two years 4, three years 0	Round 4, #126	22.8	24	10	4	0	0	—	Bust
4.02	Drew Lock QBNFL round 2, pick 42 · expected 21 · a year later 334, two years 13, three years 3	Round 2, #42	22.5	21	334	13	3	27	—	—
4.03	Ryan Finley QBNFL round 4, pick 104 · expected 22 · a year later 0, two years 3, three years 0	Round 4, #104	24.3	22	0	3	0	0	—	Bust
4.04	Alize Mack TENFL round 7, pick 231 · expected 15 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #231	22.1	15	0	0	0	0	—	Bust
4.05	Travis Homer RBNFL round 6, pick 204 · expected 15 · a year later 13, two years 4, three years 3	Round 6, #204	20.7	15	13	4	3	0	—	Bust
4.06	Foster Moreau TENFL round 4, pick 137 · expected 15 · a year later 16, two years 3, three years 5	Round 4, #137	22.0	15	16	3	5	2	—	—
4.07	Daniel Jones QBNFL round 1, pick 6 · expected 14 · a year later 516, two years 177, three years 40	Round 1, #6	21.9	14	516	177	40	221	—	—
4.08	Jordan Scarlett RBNFL round 5, pick 154 · expected 14 · a year later 0, two years 3, three years 0	Round 5, #154	23.2	14	0	3	0	0	—	Bust
4.09	Dawson Knox TENFL round 3, pick 96 · expected 13 · a year later 124, two years 41, three years 777	Round 3, #96	22.4	13	124	41	777	4	—	Hit
4.10	Myles Gaskin RBNFL round 7, pick 234 · expected 12 · a year later 9, two years 1,501, three years 45	Round 7, #234	22.2	12	9	1,501	45	0	—	Hit
4.11	Jarrett Stidham QBNFL round 4, pick 133 · expected 11 · a year later 35, two years 4, three years 2	Round 4, #133	22.7	11	35	4	2	2	—	Bust
4.12	KeeSean Johnson WRNFL round 6, pick 174 · expected 10 · a year later 22, two years 5, three years 3	Round 6, #174	22.5	10	22	5	3	0	—	Bust
5.01	Dexter Williams RBNFL round 6, pick 194 · expected 8 · a year later 10, two years 3, three years 2	Round 6, #194	22.3	8	10	3	2	0	—	Bust
5.02	Kahale Warring TENFL round 3, pick 86 · expected 8 · a year later 14, two years 4, three years 3	Round 3, #86	22.1	8	14	4	3	0	—	Bust
5.03	Will Grier QBNFL round 3, pick 100 · expected 8 · a year later 0, two years 3, three years 1	Round 3, #100	24.1	8	0	3	1	0	—	Bust
5.04	Mike Weber RBNFL round 7, pick 218 · expected 7 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #218	21.7	7	0	0	0	0	—	Bust
5.05	Gardner Minshew QBNFL round 6, pick 178 · expected 7 · a year later 91, two years 3, three years 3	Round 6, #178	22.9	7	91	3	3	16	—	—
5.06	Tony Pollard RBNFL round 4, pick 128 · expected 6 · a year later 401, two years 589, three years 1,088	Round 4, #128	22.0	6	401	589	1,088	377	—	—
5.07	Hunter Renfrow WRNFL round 5, pick 149 · expected 6 · a year later 121, two years 19, three years 832	Round 5, #149	23.3	6	121	19	832	1	—	Hit
5.08	Qadree Ollison RBNFL round 5, pick 152 · expected 6 · a year later 8, two years 3, three years 3	Round 5, #152	22.6	6	8	3	3	0	—	Bust
5.09	Caleb Wilson TENFL round 7, pick 254 · expected 5 · a year later 0, two years 3, three years 0	Round 7, #254	22.8	5	0	3	0	0	—	Bust
5.10	Chandler Cox RBNFL round 7, pick 233 · expected 4 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #233	22.7	4	0	0	0	0	—	Bust
5.11	Clayton Thorson QBNFL round 5, pick 167 · expected 4 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 5, #167	23.3	4	0	0	0	0	—	Bust
5.12	Cullen Gillaspia RBNFL round 7, pick 220 · expected 4 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #220	24.0	4	0	0	0	0	—	Bust
6.01	Easton Stick QBNFL round 5, pick 166 · expected 4 · a year later 0, two years 3, three years 0	Round 5, #166	23.6	4	0	3	0	0	—	Bust
6.02	John Ursua WRNFL round 7, pick 236 · expected 4 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #236	25.3	4	0	0	0	0	—	Bust
6.03	Juwann Winfree WRNFL round 6, pick 187 · expected 4 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 6, #187	22.6	4	0	0	0	0	—	Bust
6.04	Marcus Green WRNFL round 6, pick 203 · expected 4 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 6, #203	22.7	4	0	0	0	0	—	Bust
6.05	Scotty Miller WRNFL round 6, pick 208 · expected 4 · a year later 9, two years 11, three years 6	Round 6, #208	21.7	4	9	11	6	0	—	—
6.06	Terry Godwin WRNFL round 7, pick 237 · expected 4 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #237	22.5	4	0	0	0	0	—	Bust
6.07	Tommy Sweeney TENFL round 7, pick 228 · expected 4 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #228	23.8	4	0	0	0	0	—	Bust
6.08	Trace McSorley QBNFL round 6, pick 197 · expected 4 · a year later 0, two years 2, three years 1	Round 6, #197	23.7	4	0	2	1	0	—	Bust
6.09	Zach Gentry TENFL round 5, pick 141 · expected 4 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 5, #141	22.6	4	0	0	0	0	—	Bust
6.10	Dillon Mitchell WRNFL round 7, pick 239 · expected 3 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #239	21.9	3	0	0	0	0	—	Bust
6.11	Darius Slayton WRNFL round 5, pick 171 · expected 3 · a year later 825, two years 159, three years 13	Round 5, #171	22.3	3	825	159	13	10	—	—
6.12	Drew Sample TENFL round 2, pick 52 · expected 2 · a year later 0, two years 5, three years 3	Round 2, #52	23.0	2	0	5	3	1	—	—
7.01	Kaden Smith TENFL round 6, pick 176 · expected 2 · a year later 5, two years 4, three years 2	Round 6, #176	22.0	2	5	4	2	0	—	—
7.02	Travis Fulgham WRNFL round 6, pick 184 · expected 2 · a year later 0, two years 6, three years 4	Round 6, #184	23.6	2	0	6	4	0	—	—
7.03	Ty Johnson RBNFL round 6, pick 186 · expected 2 · a year later 8, two years 10, three years 4	Round 6, #186	21.6	2	8	10	4	6	—	—
7.04	Isaac Nauta TENFL round 7, pick 224 · expected 2 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #224	21.9	2	0	0	0	0	—	Bust
7.05	Trevon Wesco TENFL round 4, pick 121 · expected 2 · a year later 0, two years 0, three years 0	Round 4, #121	23.6	2	0	0	0	0	—	Bust

About these numbers

We compare what the market expected from each rookie on rookie-draft day with how he did over his first three NFL seasons. A hit is a top-end season, a bust never had one and lost most of his value, and everyone else is in between. Only classes whose three seasons are over count in the headline numbers. The full method is in our public notes. A dash in a later-year column means that date has not arrived yet, and 0 means he is no longer valued.

Values come from the market, Sleeper season totals and nflverse draft capital.