Class 2023 · first three seasons finished · 2026-11-11

The 2023 dynasty rookie class: expectation vs reality

About 1 in 5 of this class became a hit, about the same as a typical class. Puka Nacua (WR) is the biggest riser.

Class 2023 means the players picked in the 2023 NFL draft. Hits and busts count their 2023-2025 seasons (all three are finished). "Two years later" means value in 2025.

So what: out of every 10 2023 rookies, 2 hit and 4 busted; Puka Nacua is the biggest riser.

Superflex1QB

Superflex

Hits, in-betweens and busts, by position

Grouped by position, all picks in the class together.

Class 2023

All
- 2 hit
- 4 in between
- 4 bust
out of every 10 rookies
QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
RB
- 3 hit
- 2 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
WR
- 2 hit
- 4 in between
- 4 bust
out of every 10 rookies
TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

By dynasty rookie-draft round

Grouped by dynasty rookie-draft round: where he went in a 12-team fantasy rookie draft. This is not where he went in the real NFL draft.

Rookie-draft round 1

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 2

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 3

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 4 and later

All
- 1 hit
- 4 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies

Hit: a top-24 RB or WR season, or a top-12 QB or TE season, in his first three years.

Bust: never a top-36 season, and worth under a quarter of his draft-day value three years in.

In between: everyone else.

Every 2023 rookie: value now vs his slot expectation (Superflex)

● hit◆ bust● otherDots on the floor: no longer valued (value 0).

So what: Puka Nacua (4.06) is now worth +8,445 points over his slot; Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1.06) is now worth 2.8× his slot; Zay Flowers (1.09) is now worth 4.1× his slot; 31 of 74 are worth less than their slot predicted, and 16 are no longer listed.

Biggest overperformers

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Puka Nacua WRRookie slot 4.06 · NFL round 5, pick 177 · expected 29	4.06	Round 5, #177	29	8,474	+8,445	—
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WRRookie slot 1.06 · NFL round 1, pick 20 · expected 3,717	1.06	Round 1, #20	3,717	10,251	+6,534	—
Zay Flowers WRRookie slot 1.09 · NFL round 1, pick 22 · expected 1,375	1.09	Round 1, #22	1,375	5,630	+4,255	—
Jahmyr Gibbs RBRookie slot 1.02 · NFL round 1, pick 12 · expected 4,908	1.02	Round 1, #12	4,908	8,737	+3,829	—
Parker Washington WRRookie slot 4.10 · NFL round 6, pick 185 · expected 18	4.10	Round 6, #185	18	3,478	+3,460	—
De'Von Achane RBRookie slot 1.12 · NFL round 3, pick 84 · expected 990	1.12	Round 3, #84	990	4,051	+3,061	—
Sam LaPorta TERookie slot 2.07 · NFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 365	2.07	Round 2, #34	365	3,389	+3,024	—
Tucker Kraft TERookie slot 4.04 · NFL round 3, pick 78 · expected 34	4.04	Round 3, #78	34	2,456	+2,422	—
Chase Brown RBRookie slot 3.03 · NFL round 5, pick 163 · expected 169	3.03	Round 5, #163	169	2,580	+2,411	—
C.J. Stroud QBRookie slot 1.05 · NFL round 1, pick 2 · expected 3,755	1.05	Round 1, #2	3,755	6,041	+2,286	—

Biggest busts

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Kendre Miller RBRookie slot 2.01 · NFL round 3, pick 71 · expected 915	2.01	Round 3, #71	915	32	−883	—
Roschon Johnson RBRookie slot 2.03 · NFL round 4, pick 115 · expected 536	2.03	Round 4, #115	536	13	−523	—
Marvin Mims WRRookie slot 2.05 · NFL round 2, pick 63 · expected 391	2.05	Round 2, #63	391	28	−363	—
Jonathan Mingo WRRookie slot 2.11 · NFL round 2, pick 39 · expected 260	2.11	Round 2, #39	260	1	−259	—
Hendon Hooker QBRookie slot 2.12 · NFL round 3, pick 68 · expected 250	2.12	Round 3, #68	250	0	−250	—
Jalin Hyatt WRRookie slot 3.02 · NFL round 3, pick 73 · expected 206	3.02	Round 3, #73	206	1	−205	—
Cedric Tillman WRRookie slot 3.04 · NFL round 3, pick 74 · expected 135	3.04	Round 3, #74	135	20	−115	—
Zach Evans RBRookie slot 3.06 · NFL round 6, pick 215 · expected 126	3.06	Round 6, #215	126	0	−126	—
Israel Abanikanda RBRookie slot 3.05 · NFL round 5, pick 143 · expected 124	3.05	Round 5, #143	124	1	−123	—
Evan Hull RBRookie slot 3.09 · NFL round 5, pick 176 · expected 70	3.09	Round 5, #176	70	1	−69	—

So what: About 4 in 10 of the 2023 rookies busted; the costliest by slot is Kendre Miller at 2.01.

The whole class

Rookie-draft slot	Player	NFL draft pick	Age	Expected	+1y	+2y	+3y	Now	Best (PPR)	Result
1.01	Bijan Robinson RBNFL round 1, pick 8 · expected 10,635 · a year later 8,655, two years 8,696, three years 8,881	Round 1, #8	21.2	10,635	8,655	8,696	8,881	9,353	—	Hit
1.02	Jahmyr Gibbs RBNFL round 1, pick 12 · expected 4,908 · a year later 7,587, two years 7,786, three years 8,009	Round 1, #12	21.1	4,908	7,587	7,786	8,009	8,737	—	Hit
1.03	Anthony Richardson QBNFL round 1, pick 4 · expected 4,060 · a year later 8,180, two years 2,788, three years 1,027	Round 1, #4	20.9	4,060	8,180	2,788	1,027	477	—	—
1.04	Bryce Young QBNFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 3,700 · a year later 2,069, two years 1,805, three years 1,311	Round 1, #1	21.8	3,700	2,069	1,805	1,311	3,272	—	—
1.05	C.J. Stroud QBNFL round 1, pick 2 · expected 3,755 · a year later 10,494, two years 8,861, three years 4,924	Round 1, #2	21.6	3,755	10,494	8,861	4,924	6,041	—	Hit
1.06	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WRNFL round 1, pick 20 · expected 3,717 · a year later 2,398, two years 5,174, three years 9,309	Round 1, #20	21.2	3,717	2,398	5,174	9,309	10,251	—	Hit
1.07	Jordan Addison WRNFL round 1, pick 23 · expected 2,512 · a year later 2,679, two years 2,775, three years 1,427	Round 1, #23	21.3	2,512	2,679	2,775	1,427	1,084	—	Hit
1.08	Quentin Johnston WRNFL round 1, pick 21 · expected 2,142 · a year later 232, two years 198, three years 557	Round 1, #21	21.6	2,142	232	198	557	450	—	—
1.09	Zay Flowers WRNFL round 1, pick 22 · expected 1,375 · a year later 3,187, two years 3,211, three years 3,129	Round 1, #22	22.6	1,375	3,187	3,211	3,129	5,630	—	Hit
1.10	Zach Charbonnet RBNFL round 2, pick 52 · expected 1,108 · a year later 715, two years 400, three years 590	Round 2, #52	22.3	1,108	715	400	590	348	—	Hit
1.11	Dalton Kincaid TENFL round 1, pick 25 · expected 1,074 · a year later 3,241, two years 1,892, three years 1,568	Round 1, #25	23.5	1,074	3,241	1,892	1,568	2,411	—	Hit
1.12	De'Von Achane RBNFL round 3, pick 84 · expected 990 · a year later 4,482, two years 5,065, three years 5,333	Round 3, #84	21.5	990	4,482	5,065	5,333	4,051	—	Hit
2.01	Kendre Miller RBNFL round 3, pick 71 · expected 915 · a year later 402, two years 50, three years 20	Round 3, #71	20.9	915	402	50	20	32	—	Bust
2.02	Will Levis QBNFL round 2, pick 33 · expected 729 · a year later 1,333, two years 123, three years 3	Round 2, #33	23.8	729	1,333	123	3	3	—	—
2.03	Roschon Johnson RBNFL round 4, pick 115 · expected 536 · a year later 248, two years 61, three years 6	Round 4, #115	22.2	536	248	61	6	13	—	Bust
2.04	Michael Mayer TENFL round 2, pick 35 · expected 457 · a year later 247, two years 52, three years 37	Round 2, #35	21.8	457	247	52	37	108	—	—
2.05	Marvin Mims WRNFL round 2, pick 63 · expected 391 · a year later 235, two years 252, three years 48	Round 2, #63	21.1	391	235	252	48	28	—	Bust
2.06	Tank Bigsby RBNFL round 3, pick 88 · expected 368 · a year later 81, two years 248, three years 65	Round 3, #88	20.7	368	81	248	65	70	—	—
2.07	Sam LaPorta TENFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 365 · a year later 6,302, two years 4,297, three years 3,405	Round 2, #34	22.3	365	6,302	4,297	3,405	3,389	—	Hit
2.08	Josh Downs WRNFL round 3, pick 79 · expected 291 · a year later 551, two years 945, three years 697	Round 3, #79	21.7	291	551	945	697	857	—	—
2.09	Jayden Reed WRNFL round 2, pick 50 · expected 283 · a year later 1,805, two years 1,056, three years 628	Round 2, #50	23.0	283	1,805	1,056	628	299	—	—
2.10	Tyjae Spears RBNFL round 3, pick 81 · expected 254 · a year later 1,102, two years 244, three years 124	Round 3, #81	21.9	254	1,102	244	124	117	—	—
2.11	Jonathan Mingo WRNFL round 2, pick 39 · expected 260 · a year later 88, two years 16, three years 3	Round 2, #39	22.0	260	88	16	3	1	—	Bust
2.12	Hendon Hooker QBNFL round 3, pick 68 · expected 250 · a year later 4, two years 7, three years 2	Round 3, #68	25.3	250	4	7	2	0	—	Bust
3.01	Rashee Rice WRNFL round 2, pick 55 · expected 241 · a year later 2,526, two years 3,620, three years 4,023	Round 2, #55	23.0	241	2,526	3,620	4,023	2,427	—	—
3.02	Jalin Hyatt WRNFL round 3, pick 73 · expected 206 · a year later 108, two years 17, three years 7	Round 3, #73	21.6	206	108	17	7	1	—	Bust
3.03	Chase Brown RBNFL round 5, pick 163 · expected 169 · a year later 342, two years 3,151, three years 3,264	Round 5, #163	23.1	169	342	3,151	3,264	2,580	—	Hit
3.04	Cedric Tillman WRNFL round 3, pick 74 · expected 135 · a year later 54, two years 250, three years 33	Round 3, #74	23.0	135	54	250	33	20	—	Bust
3.05	Israel Abanikanda RBNFL round 5, pick 143 · expected 124 · a year later 32, two years 11, three years 1	Round 5, #143	20.6	124	32	11	1	1	—	Bust
3.06	Zach Evans RBNFL round 6, pick 215 · expected 126 · a year later 19, two years 2, three years 0	Round 6, #215	21.9	126	19	2	0	0	—	Bust
3.07	Luke Musgrave TENFL round 2, pick 42 · expected 113 · a year later 339, two years 27, three years 7	Round 2, #42	22.7	113	339	27	7	4	—	—
3.08	Tank Dell WRNFL round 3, pick 69 · expected 82 · a year later 2,862, two years 194, three years 91	Round 3, #69	23.5	82	2,862	194	91	72	—	—
3.09	Evan Hull RBNFL round 5, pick 176 · expected 70 · a year later 29, two years 3, three years 1	Round 5, #176	22.5	70	29	3	1	1	—	Bust
3.10	Michael Wilson WRNFL round 3, pick 94 · expected 61 · a year later 168, two years 92, three years 1,094	Round 3, #94	23.2	61	168	92	1,094	1,421	—	Hit
3.11	Luke Schoonmaker TENFL round 2, pick 58 · expected 59 · a year later 23, two years 12, three years 4	Round 2, #58	24.6	59	23	12	4	3	—	Bust
3.12	Deuce Vaughn RBNFL round 6, pick 212 · expected 50 · a year later 21, two years 3, three years 1	Round 6, #212	21.5	50	21	3	1	1	—	Bust
4.01	Kayshon Boutte WRNFL round 6, pick 187 · expected 49 · a year later 8, two years 50, three years 150	Round 6, #187	21.0	49	8	50	150	155	—	—
4.02	DeWayne McBride RBNFL round 7, pick 222 · expected 43 · a year later 10, two years 1, three years 0	Round 7, #222	21.8	43	10	1	0	0	—	Bust
4.03	Eric Gray RBNFL round 5, pick 172 · expected 42 · a year later 19, two years 3, three years 2	Round 5, #172	23.5	42	19	3	2	1	—	Bust
4.04	Tucker Kraft TENFL round 3, pick 78 · expected 34 · a year later 235, two years 1,199, three years 2,456	Round 3, #78	22.5	34	235	1,199	2,456	2,456	—	Hit
4.05	Tyler Scott WRNFL round 4, pick 133 · expected 31 · a year later 20, two years 3, three years 2	Round 4, #133	21.5	31	20	3	2	1	—	Bust
4.06	Puka Nacua WRNFL round 5, pick 177 · expected 29 · a year later 6,924, two years 7,429, three years 8,614	Round 5, #177	21.9	29	6,924	7,429	8,614	8,474	—	Hit
4.07	Darnell Washington TENFL round 3, pick 93 · expected 26 · a year later 16, two years 12, three years 25	Round 3, #93	21.7	26	16	12	25	23	—	—
4.08	Xavier Hutchinson WRNFL round 6, pick 205 · expected 24 · a year later 14, two years 4, three years 7	Round 6, #205	22.9	24	14	4	7	11	—	Bust
4.09	A.T. Perry WRNFL round 6, pick 195 · expected 21 · a year later 34, two years 4, three years 2	Round 6, #195	23.5	21	34	4	2	0	—	Bust
4.10	Parker Washington WRNFL round 6, pick 185 · expected 18 · a year later 20, two years 35, three years 646	Round 6, #185	21.1	18	20	35	646	3,478	—	—
4.11	Charlie Jones WRNFL round 4, pick 131 · expected 15 · a year later 13, two years 2, three years 2	Round 4, #131	24.5	15	13	2	2	1	—	Bust
4.12	Stetson Bennett QBNFL round 4, pick 128 · expected 13 · a year later 2, two years 2, three years 2	Round 4, #128	25.5	13	2	2	2	2	—	Bust
5.01	Jake Haener QBNFL round 4, pick 127 · expected 12 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years 0	Round 4, #127	24.1	12	3	2	0	0	—	Bust
5.02	Kenny McIntosh RBNFL round 7, pick 237 · expected 12 · a year later 4, two years 3, three years 1	Round 7, #237	23.2	12	4	3	1	1	—	Bust
5.03	Trey Palmer WRNFL round 6, pick 191 · expected 12 · a year later 45, two years 6, three years 3	Round 6, #191	22.1	12	45	6	3	0	—	Bust
5.04	Chris Rodriguez RBNFL round 6, pick 193 · expected 12 · a year later 22, two years 12, three years 115	Round 6, #193	23.6	12	22	12	115	133	—	—
5.05	Andrei Iosivas WRNFL round 6, pick 206 · expected 10 · a year later 42, two years 71, three years 19	Round 6, #206	23.5	10	42	71	19	13	—	—
5.06	Dontayvion Wicks WRNFL round 5, pick 159 · expected 10 · a year later 175, two years 134, three years 63	Round 5, #159	21.9	10	175	134	63	125	—	—
5.07	Brenton Strange TENFL round 2, pick 61 · expected 7 · a year later 4, two years 137, three years 566	Round 2, #61	22.3	7	4	137	566	724	—	—
5.08	Tre Tucker WRNFL round 3, pick 100 · expected 7 · a year later 16, two years 21, three years 54	Round 3, #100	22.1	7	16	21	54	234	—	—
5.09	Clayton Tune QBNFL round 5, pick 139 · expected 5 · a year later 2, two years 2, three years 0	Round 5, #139	24.1	5	2	2	0	0	—	Bust
5.10	DeMario Douglas WRNFL round 6, pick 210 · expected 5 · a year later 147, two years 112, three years 31	Round 6, #210	22.4	5	147	112	31	59	—	—
5.11	Zack Kuntz TENFL round 7, pick 220 · expected 5 · a year later 7, two years 1, three years 0	Round 7, #220	23.9	5	7	1	0	0	—	Bust
5.12	Derius Davis WRNFL round 4, pick 125 · expected 5 · a year later 2, two years 2, three years 1	Round 4, #125	22.6	5	2	2	1	1	—	Bust
6.01	Lew Nichols RBNFL round 7, pick 235 · expected 5 · a year later 1, two years 1, three years 0	Round 7, #235	21.7	5	1	1	0	0	—	Bust
6.02	Justin Shorter WRNFL round 5, pick 150 · expected 4 · a year later 2, two years 1, three years 0	Round 5, #150	23.0	4	2	1	0	0	—	Bust
6.03	Dorian Thompson-Robinson QBNFL round 5, pick 140 · expected 4 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years 1	Round 5, #140	23.5	4	3	2	1	0	—	Bust
6.04	Cameron Latu TENFL round 3, pick 101 · expected 3 · a year later 6, two years 1, three years 0	Round 3, #101	23.2	3	6	1	0	0	—	Bust
6.05	Jaren Hall QBNFL round 5, pick 164 · expected 3 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years 0	Round 5, #164	25.1	3	3	2	0	0	—	Bust
6.06	Ronnie Bell WRNFL round 7, pick 253 · expected 3 · a year later 2, two years 1, three years 4	Round 7, #253	23.2	3	2	1	4	0	—	—
6.07	Will Mallory TENFL round 5, pick 162 · expected 3 · a year later 7, two years 2, three years 2	Round 5, #162	23.9	3	7	2	2	1	—	—
6.08	Grant DuBose WRNFL round 7, pick 256 · expected 2 · a year later 1, two years 1, three years 0	Round 7, #256	21.9	2	1	1	0	0	—	Bust
6.09	Aidan O'Connell QBNFL round 4, pick 135 · expected 1 · a year later 163, two years 27, three years 3	Round 4, #135	24.7	1	163	27	3	2	—	—
6.10	Davis Allen TENFL round 5, pick 175 · expected 1 · a year later 6, two years 9, three years 3	Round 5, #175	22.2	1	6	9	3	8	—	—
6.11	Max Duggan QBNFL round 7, pick 239 · expected 1 · a year later 2, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #239	22.1	1	2	0	0	0	—	Bust
6.12	Payne Durham TENFL round 5, pick 171 · expected 1 · a year later 4, two years 2, three years 2	Round 5, #171	22.9	1	4	2	2	1	—	—
7.01	Tanner McKee QBNFL round 6, pick 188 · expected 1 · a year later 2, two years 2, three years 62	Round 6, #188	23.0	1	2	2	62	17	—	—
7.02	Sean Clifford QBNFL round 5, pick 149 · expected 1 · a year later 2, two years 2, three years 1	Round 5, #149	24.8	1	2	2	1	1	—	—

1QB

Hits, in-betweens and busts, by position

Grouped by position, all picks in the class together.

Class 2023

All
- 2 hit
- 4 in between
- 4 bust
out of every 10 rookies
QB
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say
RB
- 3 hit
- 2 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies
WR
- 2 hit
- 4 in between
- 4 bust
out of every 10 rookies
TE
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

By dynasty rookie-draft round

Grouped by dynasty rookie-draft round: where he went in a 12-team fantasy rookie draft. This is not where he went in the real NFL draft.

Rookie-draft round 1

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 2

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 3

All
- – hit
- – in between
- – bust
Too few to say

Rookie-draft round 4 and later

All
- 1 hit
- 4 in between
- 5 bust
out of every 10 rookies

Hit: a top-24 RB or WR season, or a top-12 QB or TE season, in his first three years.

Bust: never a top-36 season, and worth under a quarter of his draft-day value three years in.

In between: everyone else.

Every 2023 rookie: value now vs his slot expectation (1QB)

● hit◆ bust● otherDots on the floor: no longer valued (value 0).

So what: Puka Nacua (4.06) is now worth +8,098 points over his slot; Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1.03) is now worth 2.8× his slot; Parker Washington (4.09) is now worth +3,683 points over his slot; 28 of 74 are worth less than their slot predicted, and 16 are no longer listed.

Biggest overperformers

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Puka Nacua WRRookie slot 4.06 · NFL round 5, pick 177 · expected 16	4.06	Round 5, #177	16	8,114	+8,098	—
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WRRookie slot 1.03 · NFL round 1, pick 20 · expected 3,367	1.03	Round 1, #20	3,367	9,320	+5,953	—
Parker Washington WRRookie slot 4.09 · NFL round 6, pick 185 · expected 10	4.09	Round 6, #185	10	3,693	+3,683	—
Jahmyr Gibbs RBRookie slot 1.02 · NFL round 1, pick 12 · expected 4,988	1.02	Round 1, #12	4,988	8,544	+3,556	—
De'Von Achane RBRookie slot 1.09 · NFL round 3, pick 84 · expected 923	1.09	Round 3, #84	923	4,467	+3,544	—
Zay Flowers WRRookie slot 1.06 · NFL round 1, pick 22 · expected 1,540	1.06	Round 1, #22	1,540	4,965	+3,425	—
Sam LaPorta TERookie slot 2.05 · NFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 395	2.05	Round 2, #34	395	3,481	+3,086	—
Tucker Kraft TERookie slot 4.03 · NFL round 3, pick 78 · expected 22	4.03	Round 3, #78	22	2,779	+2,757	—
Chase Brown RBRookie slot 3.01 · NFL round 5, pick 163 · expected 158	3.01	Round 5, #163	158	2,872	+2,714	—
Rashee Rice WRRookie slot 2.11 · NFL round 2, pick 55 · expected 243	2.11	Round 2, #55	243	2,702	+2,459	—

Biggest busts

Player	Rookie-draft slot	NFL draft pick	Slot expectation	Value now	Surplus	Best season
Kendre Miller RBRookie slot 1.10 · NFL round 3, pick 71 · expected 862	1.10	Round 3, #71	862	21	−841	—
Roschon Johnson RBRookie slot 2.02 · NFL round 4, pick 115 · expected 525	2.02	Round 4, #115	525	6	−519	—
Marvin Mims WRRookie slot 2.04 · NFL round 2, pick 63 · expected 441	2.04	Round 2, #63	441	21	−420	—
Jonathan Mingo WRRookie slot 2.10 · NFL round 2, pick 39 · expected 255	2.10	Round 2, #39	255	1	−254	—
Jalin Hyatt WRRookie slot 2.12 · NFL round 3, pick 73 · expected 191	2.12	Round 3, #73	191	1	−190	—
Cedric Tillman WRRookie slot 3.02 · NFL round 3, pick 74 · expected 124	3.02	Round 3, #74	124	13	−111	—
Zach Evans RBRookie slot 3.04 · NFL round 6, pick 215 · expected 113	3.04	Round 6, #215	113	0	−113	—
Israel Abanikanda RBRookie slot 3.03 · NFL round 5, pick 143 · expected 113	3.03	Round 5, #143	113	1	−112	—
Evan Hull RBRookie slot 3.08 · NFL round 5, pick 176 · expected 49	3.08	Round 5, #176	49	1	−48	—
Luke Schoonmaker TERookie slot 3.09 · NFL round 2, pick 58 · expected 41	3.09	Round 2, #58	41	2	−39	—

So what: About 4 in 10 of the 2023 rookies busted; the costliest by slot is Kendre Miller at 1.10.

The whole class

Rookie-draft slot	Player	NFL draft pick	Age	Expected	+1y	+2y	+3y	Now	Best (PPR)	Result
1.01	Bijan Robinson RBNFL round 1, pick 8 · expected 9,457 · a year later 8,544, two years 8,645, three years 8,747	Round 1, #8	21.2	9,457	8,544	8,645	8,747	8,789	—	Hit
1.02	Jahmyr Gibbs RBNFL round 1, pick 12 · expected 4,988 · a year later 7,833, two years 8,132, three years 8,268	Round 1, #12	21.1	4,988	7,833	8,132	8,268	8,544	—	Hit
1.03	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WRNFL round 1, pick 20 · expected 3,367 · a year later 2,658, two years 5,784, three years 8,955	Round 1, #20	21.2	3,367	2,658	5,784	8,955	9,320	—	Hit
1.04	Jordan Addison WRNFL round 1, pick 23 · expected 2,397 · a year later 3,074, two years 3,140, three years 1,570	Round 1, #23	21.3	2,397	3,074	3,140	1,570	1,168	—	Hit
1.05	Quentin Johnston WRNFL round 1, pick 21 · expected 2,077 · a year later 221, two years 187, three years 615	Round 1, #21	21.6	2,077	221	187	615	467	—	—
1.06	Zay Flowers WRNFL round 1, pick 22 · expected 1,540 · a year later 3,449, two years 3,658, three years 3,615	Round 1, #22	22.6	1,540	3,449	3,658	3,615	4,965	—	Hit
1.07	Zach Charbonnet RBNFL round 2, pick 52 · expected 1,143 · a year later 811, two years 408, three years 647	Round 2, #52	22.3	1,143	811	408	647	363	—	Hit
1.08	Dalton Kincaid TENFL round 1, pick 25 · expected 1,054 · a year later 3,490, two years 2,019, three years 1,668	Round 1, #25	23.5	1,054	3,490	2,019	1,668	2,535	—	Hit
1.09	De'Von Achane RBNFL round 3, pick 84 · expected 923 · a year later 5,035, two years 5,531, three years 5,758	Round 3, #84	21.5	923	5,035	5,531	5,758	4,467	—	Hit
1.10	Kendre Miller RBNFL round 3, pick 71 · expected 862 · a year later 432, two years 37, three years 11	Round 3, #71	20.9	862	432	37	11	21	—	Bust
1.11	Anthony Richardson QBNFL round 1, pick 4 · expected 780 · a year later 3,096, two years 779, three years 274	Round 1, #4	20.9	780	3,096	779	274	147	—	—
1.12	Bryce Young QBNFL round 1, pick 1 · expected 689 · a year later 353, two years 340, three years 289	Round 1, #1	21.8	689	353	340	289	675	—	—
2.01	C.J. Stroud QBNFL round 1, pick 2 · expected 598 · a year later 4,509, two years 3,393, three years 1,460	Round 1, #2	21.6	598	4,509	3,393	1,460	2,062	—	Hit
2.02	Roschon Johnson RBNFL round 4, pick 115 · expected 525 · a year later 255, two years 45, three years 3	Round 4, #115	22.2	525	255	45	3	6	—	Bust
2.03	Michael Mayer TENFL round 2, pick 35 · expected 437 · a year later 251, two years 38, three years 27	Round 2, #35	21.8	437	251	38	27	72	—	—
2.04	Marvin Mims WRNFL round 2, pick 63 · expected 441 · a year later 232, two years 253, three years 40	Round 2, #63	21.1	441	232	253	40	21	—	Bust
2.05	Sam LaPorta TENFL round 2, pick 34 · expected 395 · a year later 6,803, two years 4,583, three years 3,531	Round 2, #34	22.3	395	6,803	4,583	3,531	3,481	—	Hit
2.06	Tank Bigsby RBNFL round 3, pick 88 · expected 393 · a year later 60, two years 242, three years 57	Round 3, #88	20.7	393	60	242	57	67	—	—
2.07	Josh Downs WRNFL round 3, pick 79 · expected 326 · a year later 615, two years 1,065, three years 763	Round 3, #79	21.7	326	615	1,065	763	900	—	—
2.08	Jayden Reed WRNFL round 2, pick 50 · expected 294 · a year later 2,024, two years 1,187, three years 685	Round 2, #50	23.0	294	2,024	1,187	685	329	—	—
2.09	Tyjae Spears RBNFL round 3, pick 81 · expected 283 · a year later 1,270, two years 236, three years 115	Round 3, #81	21.9	283	1,270	236	115	113	—	—
2.10	Jonathan Mingo WRNFL round 2, pick 39 · expected 255 · a year later 68, two years 6, three years 2	Round 2, #39	22.0	255	68	6	2	1	—	Bust
2.11	Rashee Rice WRNFL round 2, pick 55 · expected 243 · a year later 2,799, two years 3,999, three years 4,638	Round 2, #55	23.0	243	2,799	3,999	4,638	2,702	—	—
2.12	Jalin Hyatt WRNFL round 3, pick 73 · expected 191 · a year later 91, two years 9, three years 6	Round 3, #73	21.6	191	91	9	6	1	—	Bust
3.01	Chase Brown RBNFL round 5, pick 163 · expected 158 · a year later 366, two years 3,466, three years 3,728	Round 5, #163	23.1	158	366	3,466	3,728	2,872	—	Hit
3.02	Cedric Tillman WRNFL round 3, pick 74 · expected 124 · a year later 36, two years 246, three years 25	Round 3, #74	23.0	124	36	246	25	13	—	Bust
3.03	Israel Abanikanda RBNFL round 5, pick 143 · expected 113 · a year later 16, two years 5, three years 1	Round 5, #143	20.6	113	16	5	1	1	—	Bust
3.04	Zach Evans RBNFL round 6, pick 215 · expected 113 · a year later 8, two years 1, three years 0	Round 6, #215	21.9	113	8	1	0	0	—	Bust
3.05	Luke Musgrave TENFL round 2, pick 42 · expected 93 · a year later 353, two years 16, three years 4	Round 2, #42	22.7	93	353	16	4	3	—	—
3.06	Tank Dell WRNFL round 3, pick 69 · expected 59 · a year later 3,111, two years 598, three years 389	Round 3, #69	23.5	59	3,111	598	389	333	—	—
3.07	Will Levis QBNFL round 2, pick 33 · expected 54 · a year later 231, two years 21, three years 7	Round 2, #33	23.8	54	231	21	7	3	—	—
3.08	Evan Hull RBNFL round 5, pick 176 · expected 49 · a year later 14, two years 2, three years 1	Round 5, #176	22.5	49	14	2	1	1	—	Bust
3.09	Luke Schoonmaker TENFL round 2, pick 58 · expected 41 · a year later 11, two years 5, three years 4	Round 2, #58	24.6	41	11	5	4	2	—	Bust
3.10	Michael Wilson WRNFL round 3, pick 94 · expected 40 · a year later 150, two years 79, three years 1,238	Round 3, #94	23.2	40	150	79	1,238	1,529	—	Hit
3.11	Deuce Vaughn RBNFL round 6, pick 212 · expected 33 · a year later 10, two years 2, three years 1	Round 6, #212	21.5	33	10	2	1	1	—	Bust
3.12	DeWayne McBride RBNFL round 7, pick 222 · expected 30 · a year later 3, two years 1, three years 0	Round 7, #222	21.8	30	3	1	0	0	—	Bust
4.01	Kayshon Boutte WRNFL round 6, pick 187 · expected 28 · a year later 3, two years 38, three years 142	Round 6, #187	21.0	28	3	38	142	143	—	—
4.02	Eric Gray RBNFL round 5, pick 172 · expected 25 · a year later 7, two years 3, three years 2	Round 5, #172	23.5	25	7	3	2	1	—	Bust
4.03	Tucker Kraft TENFL round 3, pick 78 · expected 22 · a year later 237, two years 1,307, three years 2,759	Round 3, #78	22.5	22	237	1,307	2,759	2,779	—	Hit
4.04	Tyler Scott WRNFL round 4, pick 133 · expected 18 · a year later 9, two years 3, three years 1	Round 4, #133	21.5	18	9	3	1	1	—	Bust
4.05	Darnell Washington TENFL round 3, pick 93 · expected 16 · a year later 5, two years 5, three years 17	Round 3, #93	21.7	16	5	5	17	34	—	—
4.06	Puka Nacua WRNFL round 5, pick 177 · expected 16 · a year later 7,282, two years 7,668, three years 8,385	Round 5, #177	21.9	16	7,282	7,668	8,385	8,114	—	Hit
4.07	Xavier Hutchinson WRNFL round 6, pick 205 · expected 15 · a year later 5, two years 4, three years 4	Round 6, #205	22.9	15	5	4	4	5	—	Bust
4.08	A.T. Perry WRNFL round 6, pick 195 · expected 12 · a year later 19, two years 4, three years 1	Round 6, #195	23.5	12	19	4	1	0	—	Bust
4.09	Parker Washington WRNFL round 6, pick 185 · expected 10 · a year later 8, two years 23, three years 695	Round 6, #185	21.1	10	8	23	695	3,693	—	—
4.10	Charlie Jones WRNFL round 4, pick 131 · expected 9 · a year later 5, two years 2, three years 2	Round 4, #131	24.5	9	5	2	2	1	—	Bust
4.11	Kenny McIntosh RBNFL round 7, pick 237 · expected 7 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years 1	Round 7, #237	23.2	7	3	2	1	1	—	Bust
4.12	Trey Palmer WRNFL round 6, pick 191 · expected 6 · a year later 30, two years 5, three years 2	Round 6, #191	22.1	6	30	5	2	0	—	Bust
5.01	Dorian Thompson-Robinson QBNFL round 5, pick 140 · expected 6 · a year later 3, two years 3, three years 2	Round 5, #140	23.5	6	3	3	2	0	—	Bust
5.02	Chris Rodriguez RBNFL round 6, pick 193 · expected 5 · a year later 9, two years 5, three years 106	Round 6, #193	23.6	5	9	5	106	115	—	—
5.03	Hendon Hooker QBNFL round 3, pick 68 · expected 5 · a year later 14, two years 5, three years 2	Round 3, #68	25.3	5	14	5	2	0	—	Bust
5.04	Andrei Iosivas WRNFL round 6, pick 206 · expected 5 · a year later 25, two years 59, three years 12	Round 6, #206	23.5	5	25	59	12	5	—	—
5.05	Dontayvion Wicks WRNFL round 5, pick 159 · expected 4 · a year later 166, two years 117, three years 59	Round 5, #159	21.9	4	166	117	59	108	—	—
5.06	Brenton Strange TENFL round 2, pick 61 · expected 3 · a year later 6, two years 113, three years 596	Round 2, #61	22.3	3	6	113	596	754	—	—
5.07	DeMario Douglas WRNFL round 6, pick 210 · expected 3 · a year later 139, two years 99, three years 22	Round 6, #210	22.4	3	139	99	22	55	—	—
5.08	Aidan O'Connell QBNFL round 4, pick 135 · expected 2 · a year later 12, two years 7, three years 4	Round 4, #135	24.7	2	12	7	4	2	—	—
5.09	Clayton Tune QBNFL round 5, pick 139 · expected 2 · a year later 2, two years 3, three years 0	Round 5, #139	24.1	2	2	3	0	0	—	Bust
5.10	Stetson Bennett QBNFL round 4, pick 128 · expected 2 · a year later 2, two years 3, three years 2	Round 4, #128	25.5	2	2	3	2	2	—	—
5.11	Derius Davis WRNFL round 4, pick 125 · expected 2 · a year later 2, two years 2, three years 1	Round 4, #125	22.6	2	2	2	1	1	—	Bust
5.12	Grant DuBose WRNFL round 7, pick 256 · expected 2 · a year later 0, two years 1, three years 0	Round 7, #256	21.9	2	0	1	0	0	—	Bust
6.01	Jake Haener QBNFL round 4, pick 127 · expected 2 · a year later 3, two years 3, three years 0	Round 4, #127	24.1	2	3	3	0	0	—	Bust
6.02	Lew Nichols RBNFL round 7, pick 235 · expected 2 · a year later 1, two years 1, three years 0	Round 7, #235	21.7	2	1	1	0	0	—	Bust
6.03	Tre Tucker WRNFL round 3, pick 100 · expected 2 · a year later 6, two years 11, three years 46	Round 3, #100	22.1	2	6	11	46	264	—	—
6.04	Zack Kuntz TENFL round 7, pick 220 · expected 2 · a year later 5, two years 1, three years 0	Round 7, #220	23.9	2	5	1	0	0	—	Bust
6.05	Justin Shorter WRNFL round 5, pick 150 · expected 2 · a year later 1, two years 1, three years 0	Round 5, #150	23.0	2	1	1	0	0	—	Bust
6.06	Will Mallory TENFL round 5, pick 162 · expected 2 · a year later 7, two years 2, three years 2	Round 5, #162	23.9	2	7	2	2	1	—	—
6.07	Cameron Latu TENFL round 3, pick 101 · expected 1 · a year later 5, two years 1, three years 0	Round 3, #101	23.2	1	5	1	0	0	—	Bust
6.08	Davis Allen TENFL round 5, pick 175 · expected 1 · a year later 5, two years 4, three years 3	Round 5, #175	22.2	1	5	4	3	2	—	—
6.09	Jaren Hall QBNFL round 5, pick 164 · expected 1 · a year later 3, two years 2, three years 0	Round 5, #164	25.1	1	3	2	0	0	—	Bust
6.10	Payne Durham TENFL round 5, pick 171 · expected 1 · a year later 4, two years 2, three years 2	Round 5, #171	22.9	1	4	2	2	1	—	—
6.11	Ronnie Bell WRNFL round 7, pick 253 · expected 1 · a year later 1, two years 1, three years 3	Round 7, #253	23.2	1	1	1	3	0	—	—
6.12	Max Duggan QBNFL round 7, pick 239 · expected 1 · a year later 2, two years 0, three years 0	Round 7, #239	22.1	1	2	0	0	0	—	Bust
7.01	Sean Clifford QBNFL round 5, pick 149 · expected 1 · a year later 2, two years 2, three years 1	Round 5, #149	24.8	1	2	2	1	1	—	—
7.02	Tanner McKee QBNFL round 6, pick 188 · expected 1 · a year later 2, two years 3, three years 7	Round 6, #188	23.0	1	2	3	7	6	—	—

About these numbers

We compare what the market expected from each rookie on rookie-draft day with how he did over his first three NFL seasons. A hit is a top-end season, a bust never had one and lost most of his value, and everyone else is in between. Only classes whose three seasons are over count in the headline numbers. The full method is in our public notes. A dash in a later-year column means that date has not arrived yet, and 0 means he is no longer valued.

Values come from the market, Sleeper season totals and nflverse draft capital.